Record at All-Star Break compared to last season

If anyone's looking for a reason for optimism right now, I was comparing the Rockets' current record heading into the All-Star Break vs last year's:

2024-25: The Rockets are 34-21
2023-24: The Rockets were 24-30

So right off the bat, the team has improved significantly from a year ago with pretty much the same roster. The only real additions are Adams and Sheppard, and both are reserves who don't even play every night.

Now let's look at how they played heading into the break:

2024-25: The Rockets went 2-7 in the 9 games before the All-Star Break
2023-24: The Rockets went 2-6 in the 8 games before the All-Star Break

And that 2-6 stretch last year included losses to the 25-57 Raptors and 27-55 Grizzlies similar to how this year's Rockets dropped 2 games to the currently 20-34 Nets. It sure seems like this team gets winded and worn down in the weeks preceeding the All-Star Game.

As for how last year's Rockets did post-break:

2023-24: The Rockets went 17-11 to finish 41-41 and the final 18 of those games were without Sengun

A comparable finish this season of 17-10(easily doable given the imminent return of Fred and Jabari, the lighter schedule, and much needed rest from the break) would result in a 51-31 record which would at least be a top 5 seed and possibly good enough for top 4 given how recent seasons have gone in the Western Conference(the Clippers were 4th last year with that exact record).

 

Post-break, the Nuggets play the Lakers 3 times(2 at home, 1 away), the Thunder twice(both on the road), and the Rockets twice(both on the road).

Denver fattened up on an easy schedule leading into the break, but they'll come back down to earth. And that second game at Toyota Center just happens to be the regular season finale. There could be playoff seeding on the line in that one.

 

Some of that is youth and inexperience. More recently, it's likely due to fatigue and injuries.