... to you. Why do people assume that someone else does or should prioritize what you do? Why? As you said, he's already won two WS. Is a 3rd one that important? It seems like it would be way important for someone who has zero to chase their first. Or maybe he knows the Astros' offer is in his backpocket, so he's just seeing what he can get with a plan to stay with the Astros unless someone pays him a ton more?
I agree with this to a degree. He's won two and no guarantees he could win another in Houston. Why not go for the biggest deal that's 6+ years, maximize his wallet and if he wins a ring with another team then that may improve his legacy even more. If not, he's still a 2 time champ regardless if his stats decline or not. What I don't believe is the Astros offer is still there in full. I think he and the Astros have moved on secretly and he's really hoping Boston comes up to 4-5 years with an opt out. That's the best place for him next year to improve his stats and garner a big payday next year if he opts out. He will be a Red Sox if they match the 4 years the Cubs apparently have reportedly offered. And honestly, he may have already made up his mind to do only 3 years with an opt out with Boston, he's just holding out a little longer for a bit more security. Many thought he "wanted" to come back to Houston and the 6 years was enough. The hold out was just a way to get a bit more. But Boston is where he's going, and he's doing everything he can to make that happen.
I have been wracking my brain for weeks and still don't see a scenario that makes a short term deal a positive decision for Alex We KNOW he has 6 year offers, and we KNOW that at least one of them is $156M or higher. That means that a shorter term offer only makes sense if he can recoup the remaining $$ plus some amount that makes the gamble worth taking. Example: the Cubs make Alex a 3 yr $100M offer with salaries of $35M, $35M, $30M and an opt out after years 1 and 2. In order for that to be EQUAL to the Astros offer Alex must be able to get: A 3 yr $56M deal at age 34 A 4 yr $86M deal at age 33 A 5 yr $121M deal at age 32 Let's say that in order to be worth the gamble, he must be able to get an offer at least 10% better than the current offer. Otherwise he's gambling for no potential gain. 3yr $61.6M at age 34 4yr $84.6M at age 33 5yr $133.1M at age 32. FTR using Fangraphs projections and standard regression due to age: Alex is currently worth: $132-165M for 6 yrs $100-125M for 2026-2030 $72-90M for 2027-2030 $48-60M for 2028-2030 $28-35M for 2029-2030 $12-15M for 2030. Alex would be taking a big risk. The money he is looking for is at the very top, or even exceeds all value models. If he has a major injury or a season that moves his 2026 projection below 3.5 WAR then it will be very very unlikely that he will ever reach what teams are offering now in a 6 yr offer. I just can't fathom Alex or any of his professionals advising him not realizing this.
Oh I think this is going to be a massive mistake on his part. I think sometime around the beginning of November, we will see a report where he fires Boras. I won't begrudge someone for betting on themselves...but sometimes you have to consider the what if's...and those are becoming more and more the realitiy for Bregman. Unless he has a 2019 type season, the next contract after this one is going to end up costing him tens of millions.
Short term deal/betting on yourself at his age seems like a miscalculation or risk. But Alex Bregman didn’t get to where he is in life and sport by having a normal sized belief in himself and his ability. He is the one who drove in that game winning run against Kenley Jansen as a kid in the majors in 2017. He is the one who charged that ball and made a 1 in 50 perfect throw three inches above home plate to nail Greg Bird at home plate. If we loved him for his absolute belief in his abilities, are we really going to kill him for sticking with that belief if he decides that’s how he wants to navigate his remaining MLB career. Man, people forget quickly. Bregs is already one of the greatest players in Astros history. Get off his back and let him work his process. He has earned that and then some.
I understand how free agency works. I think he's priced himself out. Obviously that's an opinion but neither you or I know behind the scenes details. What we do know is he remains unsigned. He's not Harper or Machado. Let's be realistic
Betting on yourself is one thing but there has to be significant potential upside for it to work. Let's say you can pocket $100 or roll a dice 1) you get $0 2) you get $50 3) you get $100 4) you get $100 5) you get $100 6) you get $115 Why roll the dice?
Not only two World Series rings but he's been in the playoffs every year of his career (but his rookie year) and has played in four World Series. I'm not suggesting Bregman is ready to cash checks and slip into retirement. But, also - would anyone blame him if he did? I bet he wouldn't be crushed if he got to spend an October with his family. Athletes are definitely wired differently - but they're more "normal" than people realize. They seek many of the same things we do - they have greater access and financial security to obtain those things - but they still want to be paid fair market value, and they prioritize family, and cherish time off, etc. We need to stop pretending that their salaries eliminate those basic needs and wants.
I don’t buy this. The Astros have no reason to pull their offer at this point of free agency. Not to mention, local reporters covering the team like Chandler Rome have not reported anything to that effect. Also, there are no comparable hitters on the market, and it’s not like the market is very hot for any pitchers or other players they might want to pursue. Boras is the one telling every reporter that Bregman is open to a short-term deal with opt outs. My guess is he’s still trying to pressure Houston, Detroit or Toronto to increase their total contract values on their six-year offers.
If the 5 year 156 million offer is true and still on the table, we know Crane did everything in his power to keep Bregman and still be responsible to the club. I also think that Bregman knows the offer is on the table so he is seeing what he can get until the last moment before he signs it. There is also a possibility that Crane doesn't have that offer on the table anymore and is doing Boras and Bregman a favor by not denying the offer so Bregman and Boras can get the most for Bregman.
We are in the “best and final offer” stage. Beyond the rumor that there are still multiple teams involved, I don’t firmly believe anything out there. If I were betting, the odds of Detroit, Boston, and Houston would be very close with Toronto and Chicago close behind. I do expect there will be one final conversation between Bregman and Crane sometime in the next 5 days. I am already shocked this has dragged on this long but I will be even more shocked if he doesn’t sign by Monday. I still maintain if he signs anything shorter than 5 years he is making a huge mistake. I do think there are decent odds Houston circles back on Arenado, especially if Bregman signs with Boston.
Agreed. I’m not in the Astros’ front office, but they were interested in both Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar as the Bregman pursuit dragged on. Also, you do not sign 34-year-old first baseman in Christian Walker for three years to not maximize the first year of his contract. Whether it’s Arenado if the Cardinals pay enough of his remaining salary, or trading for an outfielder like Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan (who could play second base and let Altuve easily transition to left field), Cedric Mullins or Mike Yastremski, I expect them to try to add another bat between now and Opening Day.
It would be hard to find a team with no Astros ties on it. If I tried to follow all the ex Astros I would have to hire an assistant.
Moves I think might be possible: 1. Arenado (most likely by far) 2. Luis Robert Jr. (they’re going to trade him this season, they just need a convincing offer) 3. Someone from the Cardinals other than Arenado 4. Brandon Lowe (the Rays always keep an open mind mind, also plays into moving Altuve to LF) 5. Jesus Sanchez from the Marlins I think it very unlikely they make a deal with another team that expects to contend, so that strikes Mullins, Yaz, and Lamont Wade, all guys I thought would have been decent targets earlier in the offseason.
There is no way to know what his priorities are. Whatever they are I wish him the best. As an Astros fan I would prefer to see an open spot for our future third baseman available when he is ready to fill it. I believe that leaves out re signing Bregman for more than a very short contract. Like one year with a mutual option for a second. That does not sound like what I would think he would hope for.
This is not OK. Using the Astros as a stalking horse bid puts the team in the position of having to delay and forego other plans... and also puts the team in a position where their contract offer is being used against them. Both are detrimental to the Astros future success. By now, Bregman should have realized that the Astros offer was VERY FAIR. The market has spoken over the last few months, as he's found no superior offers. Boras will lean on his media relationships to create the illusion of a bidding war, which is what is happening now. The longer this goes on, the more goodwill Bregman burns up in Houston.
Asking for fair market value and not getting it are two separate things. Bregman believes he's the... 2nd/3rd/4th/5th-best 3B in baseball and wants a deal consistent with that assessment. That is miles away from greedy, even if no team is willing to meet his price. It's fair to ask if Bregman has over-inflated his value or mis-read the market. But I don't believe he's been anything close to greedy. He's not seeking Soto money. What drives the "greedy" discourse then is angry fans who want him to play for their favorite team, which is disingenuous because fans don't write checks and they'd never settle for less to do their own jobs. I just hate that we villainize the worker in this country - even those making tens of millions of dollars - and let the rich billionaires get away with penny-pinching.
