Houston’s track record in drafting pitchers in the 2021-2023 drafts looks pretty good. 2021: Spencer Arrighetti (6) and Colton Gordon (8) are both on the 40 man roster, with Arrighetti entrenched in the rotation. Rhett Kouba (12) was in the back end of most org top 30 prospect lists before his most recent injury. He’d been a steady riser until last season when he got hurt. Aaron Brown (9) will be in the AAA rotation this season and looks like a potential middle relief/AAAA guy, Nic Swanson (16) will be in the AA rotation and has been a steady riser. Chayce McDermott (4) was traded for Trey Mancini and will contribute for the Orioles this season. Bryant Salgado (14) and Adrian Chaidez (15) were the only pitchers from the 2021-2023 drafts who have been released. 2022: AJ Blubaugh (7) is Houston’s 2nd best pitching prospect. Michael Knorr (3), Trey Dombroski (4), Tyler Guilfoil (8), and Joey Mancini (15) will be in the AA rotation and have been steady risers. Andrew Taylor (2), Nolan DeVos (5), and Brett Gillis (9) have battled injuries; Taylor and DeVos are sleeper candidates this season if healthy. 2023: Ethan Pecko (6) and James Hicks (13) reached AA in their first full season and will start 2025 in Corpus’ rotation. Both guys could reach the majors this season and have high ceilings. Jackson Nezuh (14), Colby Langford (17), and Derek True (18) all posted very strong k rates and have very good stuff. They’ll all likely start in Asheville’s rotation this season. Alonzo Tredwell (2) and Joey Dixon (7) have battled injuries. Tredwell is probably the main pitcher draftee from this time period who has seen his stock slip, but he could be a fast riser if he stays healthy. Essentially, of the 21 pitchers drafted across those 3 drafts, 16 have met or outperformed their draft slot so far, with Arrighetti, Blubaugh, Pecko, and Hicks dramatically outperforming their pedigree. The 5 guys who have seen their stock drop since being drafted (Taylor, DeVos, Gillis, Tredwell, Dixon) are all primarily due to injuries, and all of them are still in the system.
So you are saying the Astros pitching development staff know what they are doing. I wish we could say the same of the hitting coaches. We've really had no great hitters that weren't 1st round picks other than Alvarez, but no one taught Yordan how to hit. I think only Chas overachieved.
The 2021-2023 drafts of position players looks ok: 2021: Quincy Hamilton (5) will be Sugar Land’s 4th OF and looks likely to at least get a cup of coffee in the majors at some point. Tyler Whitaker (3) does look like a bust. Joey Loperfido (7) and Will Wagner (18) were traded for Kikuchi and will likely play quite a bit for Toronto. Michael Sandle (10), Chad Stevens (11), Kobe Kato (13), Justin Williams (17), and Hector Nieves (19) have alll been released but all were late round picks. 2022: Zach Dezenzo (12) reached the majors and could be Houston’s everyday LF this season; he is a very high ceiling player. Jacob Melton (2) is a fringe Top 100 prospect. Tommy Sacco (14) should be a regular in AAA’s lineup this year and could carve out a stint as a backup big league SS. Collin Price (6) will be on a short leash but should get plenty of time in the upper levels this season to take the next step. Zach Cole (10) remains one of Houston’s highest ceiling prospects and will be Corpus’s everyday CF to start 2025; he has 30/30 potential if it clicks. John Garcia (19) should see plenty of run at C in AA this season after a very good year in High a last season. Drew Gilbert (1) and Ryan Clifford (11) were in the Verlander trade and are Top 100 prospects for the Mets. Jackson Loftin (13), Tim Borden (16), and Garrett McGowan (17) were all late round draftees who’ve been released. 2023: Brice Matthews (1) reached AAA in his first full season and is a fringe top 100 prospect. Jeron Williams (9), Austin Deming (10), and Pascanel Ferreras (20) all reached AA in their first full season. Williams is my pick for a breakout this season. Cam Fisher (4), Ryan Johnson (9), and Garret Guillemette (15) all struggled in high A last season, so have seen their stock fall, especially for Fisher and Johnson. They will repeat that level and hope for a rebound. Chase Jaworsky (5), Nehomar Ochoa (11), and Will Bush (16) acquitted themselves well in full season ball at a relatively young age; all are breakout candidates this season. Anthony Huezo (12) looked pretty good in a late small sample in Asheville as a teenager. So of 31 position players drafted and signed in those drafts, 28 have met or exceeded general expectations so far. The busts (Whitaker, Fisher, and Johnson) are all still in the system. General expectations for a team drafting late in each round: 1st: everyday player or solid SP or very good RP 2nd: fringe regular or good bench player or BoR/RP 3rd-4th: AAAA/bench/RP 5th-6th: AAA depth 7th-10th: AA depth 11th-20th: wont make it out of High A
I'm measuring based how they do in the pros as a hitter. We haven't had a position player surprise offensively other Chas, since Yordan. I can't attribute Yordan's success to coaching. We get a surprise on the pitching side almost every season. Blanco, Spense, JP France, Garcia, Javier, Brown Hunter Brown. All delivered way more than anyone would ever expect from their draft position or sign on bonus.
I agree with your point. But I think that’s more a product of Houston losing draft picks and trading away good prospects than it is poor drafting/development. It is harder to find position player steals late in the draft than it is to find pitchers. If I were a GM or scouting director in charge of a team’s draft, my MO would be to compile a list of the top 100 draft-eligible position players ordered by their likelihood to be at least everyday caliber major leaguers, and I’d hope to get 4 of them from the first 6 rounds. Then I’d have a huge list of pitchers ordered by ceiling and draft them in round 7-15. Then rounds 16-20 would be to fill out organizational rosters with guys I felt would at least be able to reach AA and hold their own.
I just hoping one of our young guys including Dezenzo becomes an above average bat this season. We've lost a bunch of all-star level bats in the last few years and we've gained one above average one in Diaz. Springer, Correa, Gurriel, Brantley, Tucker, and Bregman. That is a lot of runs that we lost.
I agree they haven’t been able to fully replace Springer, Correa, and Bregman internally. Gurriel and Brantley were essentially free agent adds so the farm shouldn’t necessarily have been expected to replace them. Diaz, McCormick, and Pena are decent players but only probably replace 75% of the value Correa/Springer provided. Im optimistic. Among the 18 guys expected to comprise the “everyday” AAA/AA lineups, 9-10 of them have potential to be above average major league hitters. Smith, Melton, Dezenzo, Matthews, and Baez are all really good prospects who would fit in most teams’ top 10 lists. Corona, Leon, Whitcomb, and Cole carry more bust risk but definitely have realistic ceiling to be very good big league hitters. I am abnormally high on Jeron Williams. If you gave me an over/under of 2.5 in the number of position players from Houston’s projected AA/AAA rosters who will go on to put up at least one 2+ fwar season, I’d take the over.
I think Leon is a bust whish I hate to say. I had high hopes. He has a really big hole in his swing. I could see him as a defensive replacement and 4th outfi outfielder
Good post I have higher expectations than that. I'm looking for 3-4 guys that can make a MLB roster ou of each class. 2-3 piitchers and 1-2 position players. Or at least out of those 3-4 guys they're thought of well enough that they can be traded for established players that can help the MLB club compete for titles. This years guys that I'm looking at are Dezenzo/Matthews/Melton/Gusto/Gordon/Bluebaugh/Whitcomb/Whitley as guys that can contribute or be traded for guys that can help the MLB club.
I get what you're saying. Half of these Ks are just Blue Bayou fastballs. There's a couple that have some action, which makes me very intrigued: https://www.milb.com/corpus-christi/video/miguel-ullola-k-s-eight Then there's this ludicrously unhittable pitch: https://www.mlb.com/video/miguel-ullola-logs-his-fifth-strikeout
Over the last 3 seasons they've added Diaz/Chas/Pena as bats that can contribute. Then you add in the pitching, Brown/Arrighetti/Javier/Blanco etc... added in that time to go with stalwarts like Altuve/Bregs/Tucker/Yuli/Alvarez and it's easy to see why the Stros have remained so goo for the last 8 yrs. Difference is this year while they've upgraded at 1B and hopefully Parades plays well at 3B they dont have a Tucker replacement (Nobody's even close) and Altuve is starting to age. Plus they're going to miss Bregs leadership and glove along with Tuckers glove more than most can imagine. I'm truly worried about the Stros defense this year.
I really wish we could have kept Correa. Knew Springer was gone because of eligibility. He was pissed they did that to him. He hasn't been great in Toronto.
He gets some very late movement on his fastball, but it takes hitters a bit to pick it up off his hand. It’s no physical deception but having seen it behind the plate, his body movement and alignment lines up to be hard to see.
Best Astros prospect at each position and what I’m hoping to see out of them this season: C Walker Janek: 1st rd pick, plus defensive catcher with power. Needs to post a >120 wRC+ in Asheville over April-May and then hold his own in AA this season (>90 wRC+). ETA 2026-2027 1B Cam Smith: Smith could end up in any of the corners but I think 1B might be his long term home. He needs to post a >150 wRC+ across AA and AAA this season. ETA 2026 2B Brice Matthews: A >130 wRC+ in AAA across 300 pa probably gets him promoted. A 150 wRC+ probably gets him into consensus Top 100 territory and makes him more of a viable long term piece they can count on. ETA 2025-2026 SS Chase Jaworsky: It’ll be interesting to see where he’s assigned. The main thing he needs to do is show that he’s developing power while maintaining the solid bb/k rate he posted last season. An ISO of .180 while keeping his k rate under 23% would be a great sign. ETA 2027-2028 3B Zach Dezenzo: I still think Dezenzo is Houston’s best 3B prospect. I understand there’s a clear opening in LF so he may play there this season but I do hope he at least continues to see enough time at 3B to stay viable there. I have high hopes for him and think he could reasonably be a dark horse ROY candidate, but I’m hoping he posts a >115 wRC+ in the majors this season and gets established as a long term piece. ETA 2025 RF Zach Cole: He needs to see a dramatic improvement in his k/bb ratio. The rest of his game is there. ETA 2026 CF Jacob Melton: I’m hoping for a top 5 finish jn ROY voting. A >100 wRC+ with 20+ SB and good CF defense in the majors would be meeting the bar in a big way. ETA 2025 LF: Luis Baez: combining the ISO he showed in Asheville with the k/bb ratio he showed in Corpus would make him an MLB Top 75 prospect. I’m not necessarily expecting that, but a double digit walk rate, k rate <22%, and 25+ HR would be a step forward. ETA 2026 DH Kevin Alvarez: DSL numbers won’t mean anything, I’m mainly just hoping he comes stateside at some point this year. ETA 2030
Best pitchers: Miguel Ullola: Hype train is rolling ETA 2025 AJ Blubaugh: Underrated ETA 2025 Anderson Brito: Broke out last year ETA 2027 Ethan Pecko: Underrated ETA 2025-2026 Colton Gordon: High floor ETA 2025 James Hicks: Sleeper ETA 2025-2026 Ryan Gusto: BoR Innings eater potential ETA 2025 Jose Fleury: sleeper crafty BoR ETA 2025-2026 Juan Bello: if he adds velo he’ll be a steal ETA 2027 Ryan Forcucci: injury recovery will determine outcome ETA 2027-2028 Alonzo Tredwell: stock down ceiling still there ETA 2027 Trey Dombroski: Big lefty has upside ETA 2026 Jackson Nezuh: big time upside but lots of risk ETA 2027 Alex Santos: looked really good in fall league ETA 2026 Logan VanWey: dark horse to be in opening day big league pen ETA 2025
Pitchers I have listed that you do not. Rhett Kouba Michael Knorr Jagger Beck Alain Pena Parker Smith Pitchers you have listed that I do not. James Hicks Juan Bello Trey Dombroski Alex Santos Logan VanWey
