That is exactly why any offer of under 6 years is a non-starter. If it was not known that a 6 year offer was available then a shorter deal would be a possibility. Even if he had a 5yr $150M offer, there is no guarantee he could get a $6+M contract at age 36. Jason Heyward just signed a $1M contract at age 35. Even if he could, how much would he need to get in that contract to give up the security of guaranteeing it now? If there is a 6 year offer available, there are zero scenarios (short of it exceeding the guarantee of the 6 year deal) that makes sense.
Actually Alexander apparently got most of it from Bagwell who he was chatting up quite a bit….he’s likely the source of the increased offer as well.
My current guess as to Bregman’s market: Toronto: $180M/6yrs w/opt out Detroit: $175M/6yrs Houston: $165M/6yrs Chicago: $140M/4yrs w/opt outs Boston: $100M/3yrs w/opt outs Several others: $65M/2yrs w/opt out He doesn’t want to play in Toronto because they won’t be good after this season and their park is a bad fit. He doesn’t want to play in Detroit because the park is a bad fit. He wants to play in Houston but is resentful over the fact that they’re his lowest aav offer. He doesn’t want to play in Chicago. He wants to play in Boston but knows a short term deal is a bad idea. Odds guesses: Detroit 25% Houston 20% Boston 15% Toronto 10% Chicago 10% Mystery team 20%
It's not though. He's got generational wealth already. We paid him early and took the risk. He's not maximizing any value. That's why nobody has signed him. He's listening to Boras and bering greedy. The longer he waits the less he's worth. Sorry but settling for 165 million dollars or whatever it is now isn't going to cause me to shed any tears
I like this breakdown and it's reasonable. Toronto actually looks like an OK park for him by first glance. Washington also could be good and may be that mystery team. Houston still looks to be the best fit for me. Houston 50% Detroit 20% Toronto 15% All others 15% combined. I just still don't see him going anywhere else unless these current offers get even bigger
Imagine spending your childhood in a very nice family setting before moving out temporarily. After realizing you did have it better at home you check in a few months later on moving back in but your parents say, "Sure, but we rented out your room to someone else. You'll have to sleep in the garage until we find out what to do with you." I almost feel like that's the Astros approach to Bregs coming back right now and he's not sure about that.
If Houston and Detroit’s total contract values were really 10M apart, Bregman would be leaving the Astros for 6-7 million dollars, after taxes.
That’s all well and good, but what did he expect a professional baseball team would do after more than a month went by, and he refused to budge on his demands? Now, we are at more than three months of Bregman exploring his market. Companies/organizations don’t sit on their hands while their employees or those in the job market take months to decide on offers.
It is really hard to judge what Bregman values. Yes, he already has a 9 figure net worth, so another few million might not matter to him. But he’s also not that far removed from being a normal upper middle class kid, where a few million dollars was a lifetime’s worth of money. My total speculation is that Bregman is really struggling with leaving even a few million dollars on the table.
Exactly my point. Not saying it's the Astros fault, only that Bregs is thinking of returning but feels put off and not fully welcomed. He created this scenario 100% and now he's toying with the aftermath.
I have no idea what Bregman values, but if 256 million dollars over 11 years or more (factoring in his original five-year, 100 million dollar extension with the Astros) isn’t enough for him and his family to be set for life, he needs better financial advisors around him. If he values winning, there’s a lot more to like about Crane’s Astros than Illitch’s Tigers. Keep in mind, the Tigers are two years away from losing Tarik Skubal if they can’t get him extended. Odds are very strong they will have to explore trading him next offseason.
I think Bregman values winning very highly. I also think Bregman values money, even as “little” as a few million dollars. I also think Bregman values his own personal on the field and off the field opportunities. I generally think Bregman is a baseball rat who is also smart enough to think big picture and long term. His vision may be clouded by his own confidence in himself as well as the voices in his ear. This has been a frustrating saga, I’m sure for all parties. To me the best outcome would have been that Houston was simply the only team that valued Bregman and so it was a win-win-win, where Bregman got his long term contract from his highest bidder, the Astros got a premium free agent at a good value, and the Astros fans got to keep watching one of their homegrown stars. I think that is extremely unlikely at this point, but it’s still possible.
Not many people in here would settle for taking a pay-cut when you feel you’re in your work prime… nor would you feel happy getting paid less/year than your immediate peers that you feel you’re better than. (Not saying that Bregman should continue to over-inflate the non-existent market for him, but that people are lying when they say they wouldn’t have a problem with any of this if it happened to them in their jobs).
The top 5 paid 3B in 2024 were (per Google): Rendon $38.5M Arenado $35M Bregman $30.5M Devers $29.3M Moncada $24.8M I’m sure Bregman looked at that and thought at least $33M/yr was in the bag, for at least 6 years.
There is some truth to this, and Bregman was only making $11 mil at age 28 so he's only had 2 years of actually getting paid over his playing stats.Him wanting $30 mil for the next 4-6 years seems reasonable when you factor in what he's left on the table already. But reality wise, he's not getting $30 mil average.
Weren’t you the one getting reprimanded for whining/crying about other people fighting last week? N/m… it was the bruised ovary incident… congrats!
Ironically, most of these contract numbers were in place after 2019…. Which is when Bregman certainly did seem to set his future market up well. If there’s stagnation in contract values in baseball over 6+ years, while every other sport has seen an increase… and we all know how inflation has impacted everything else… your sport, and its upper-middle class, has a problem.
