I am aware they are the exceptions you pointed out and I know their stats because I watched them. You conflated several factors at once. Most players fall apart in later years, exceptions don't hold up from one year to the next, Malone and Kareem are both your exception and why this doesn't work. I watched the Rockets in the 1981 Finals so I certainly watched Kareem and Malone a ton and quite aware of their ironman careers for longevity. Kareem's knees were shot, his numbers and minutes had been falling off for years. He was still great when he was on the court. If he could still play he would and would be awesome. His heart and skill didn't quit, his body did. His skyhook and length for rebounds deceptively make it look like he was less physical with his slender frame but he took a beating and was perennially all-defense. Malone had to keep going and played through bad knees like Kareem, it got him in the end and he couldn't do it anymore. They kept it quiet and he didn't miss games. His numbers did stay up until the last year when he finished off the knee. Don't disagree with you about him as a person for many reasons. I still remember when he stepped on Kevin Willis' head the POS. Both were VERY physical big players and took a lot of abuse in a different NBA where you played hurt and didn't miss games. Like football are you hurt or are you injured? Now players get the chance to heal with better treatment and have load management. Malone and Kareem were playing 82 games hurt and a lot of times 38-40 minutes. Wear and tear factors into those stats. Just like the average NFL player career is 3.5 years and every player's career ends because of injury a lot of that factors into the old NBA. Now you get injured lose a step, you are going to lack the athleticism to compete for minutes. My point was Durant is a jumpshooter that relies on skill not athleticism. He is not banging it out in the low post taking a beating. Facts and circumstances are different.
The report that said Durant was "blindsided" by trade talks was clearly laying the groundwork for a trade request. It's funny how role players always say that trade talks don't bother them because this is a business and it comes with the territory. But star players have a completely different mentality and get their feelings hurt if they are mentioned in a trade. If it gets out that you are shopping your star, you better get that trade completed because they will become disgruntled with a quickness.
Now I give zero ***** about KD. Move this thread to the NBA Dish. I don't want KD this summer. Those Suns picks are going to help our team continue acquiring young talent. Hopefully we find a go to guy at some point.
The logic is simple. Durant is passive aggressive mostly and does stuff in private. They never would have offered him in trade without his demand because the relationship is publicly dead now. Now EVERYONE knows he is getting traded and he is an expiring contract. Suns exhausted every option besides Houston. Suns wanted other teams to compete in private to raise his value and lower how badly Stone was going to bend them over. Now, Durant's value is down because he is an expiring you have to trade. Suns NEED to trade with Houston. I don't want Booker but now even that trade becomes more difficult because of the 2nd apron. Durant for some expirings thrown in could have relieved some of that pressure. Again, let me make it clear, I wanted Fox. Rockets never took his trade seriously. I am glad Butler is on GSW and not Suns. I want Ant and not Booker. I think Booker and Durant now can happen for FVV, Jalen, Jock and 2027 and 2029 PHX. Those picks are so valuable to PHX they have to get them back. I so hope 2025 PHX becomes Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey. It would drive them nuts. If we did something like that I would want to rope in Minny and get Ant.
KD is irrelevant- the Suns move him in the off-season, they will not get commensurate talent and it will cost them a lot. If he stays on the team and gets hurt, they don't have the means to replace him. The Suns have a Beal sized tumor churning around that they can't cut out. The point of this is that the Suns death spiral has begun. The Rockets are best positioned to take advantage of this and should.
If they are forced to trade KD, then we shouldn't give them back their picks. Let them implode and we reap the values. They are basically the Nets 3 years ago. Trading the Phoenix picks for Durant would be shortsighted.
Okay. Maybe that's the primary disagreement: KD is not an exception, by the numbers. He has been declining for years—just in the way that all-time great players do. Sure, he's still great, but less great than he used to be, and much less durable. Maybe he was embarrassed, last year, to be a focus of the games-played for NBA award discussion. But it's the first time he's topped 55 games since he was 30 and he's right back to it this year. And part of that might be because he has been banging down low more as he got older. He started moving toward PF since he was with GS and has put in much more effort on defense and rebounding on smaller teams, and with killer MPG. And he hasn't had a good PG making his life easier. He's working harder than ever. I'm not just stating my scouting opinion on his quality of play; I'm looking at the numbers. He looks great because he's a great player, but compare compare him to LeBron, CP3, and Steph, etc. on DARKO's Historical Career Trajectory, below—it's the projection system favored internally by NBA teams—and you see the same basic arc again and again. I'd take a screenshot but I don't think you can do that on this site. (It's fun, comparing historical arcs, like PG13 and Kobe had virtually the same career in adjusted plus/minus.) There are rare exceptions, like RWB and Nash, but KD isn't one of them. He's had a typical HOFer productivity arc. https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO/ If he weren't on the Suns, I would root for KD to keep it going into his 40s, but I wouldn't bet on it and I'm glad that the Rockets didn't.
KD had an injury after being incredibly durable for his career by todays standards. It affected his whole Nets tenure in terms of games played but not output. If he was still on the Nets I would agree with you on durability and wouldn't want him. None of his numbers, minutes, points, FG% went down only his games played in the Nets years. I think without pulling him out of some games he could have been on pace for close to 70 games this year. My point again was (prior to this trade deadline) that he would have maximized assets for us and been fine for the remainder of his current contract. I think, like LBJ, he can go until he is 40. I don't particularly want him then or paying him a max contract but I wouldn't have had a problem on a year to year basis. He is not going to be on the Suns next year and he may even have an "injury sabbatical" the rest of this season after not getting his wish to be traded. I think his trade value is lower this offseason because everyone knows he is getting traded on an expiring contract. When he is traded I think he goes back to year to year for max contracts and is not going to get a 2 year extension for the reasons you outlined. Maybe a 1 and 1 with a team option. This was never a case of Durant has 7-10 years left but based on the original discussion he is not a player that is done and declining in output by 36. This is still someone in their prime performance range and if he hangs up at 38-40 and still producing near that then to me that is clearly the exception. I have been out on getting any of the last set of stars that look to go into the sunset but with Harden only being a year younger and you have PG13, Kawhi, Butler, Steph, and several others in that group it is going to be interesting to see how long they can go compared to the old days. The sitting out games and max contracts have greatly incentivized players to hold on as long as possible. I expect them to fall off greatly but I don't know if in all or most cases that is what we see happen. Kobe is a good example of what would have happened if the Achilles hadn't popped. You see the fall off and he shut it down at 38 but I think he would have tried to press on like LBJ.
Patrick & Rafa have played this perfectly - when Thursday rolls around the Suns will be sending US draft picks to get rid of Durant
I've not really paid attention to DARKO. I've heard good things about it, but have heard more about EPM being liked by NBA teams as closest to their internal metrics (mostly from Lowe and Vecenie). EPM has him at about half as good as he was at his prime when he plays. Still should be a good player for another year or maybe two, but he's not close to as good as he was. From my viewing, sometimes he looks great (almost as good as he was), but also sometimes looks average. I would say he looked better the further he was away from a missed game.
"CBS Sports writer Sam Quinn believes that the Rockets will have competition in two division rivals — the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies — for [Kevin Durant] services this summer.: https://www.si.com/nba/rockets/news...competition-in-kevin-durant-trade-sweepstakes
