what’s with the continued infatuation with Arenado? With Paredes/Walker at the corners, I just don’t see how/where Arenado would fit
I don’t really see the fit either, my comment was just based on reading the rumors. I think somebody in the Astros offices has convinced themselves that Arenado isn’t washed and/or is in love with defense.
The fit is because Altuve is being moved off of 2b. I have no idea how fast it happens, but it is happening.
He is no longer the absolute best defender at 3rd, but he is at worst the third best. So there is a lot of value defensively with him. The Astros likely shift Paredes to 2nd at least part of the time with Arenado. That probably gives the Astros the best defensive infield in baseball with three possible Gold Glovers and Paredes is not a slouch at 2nd. Offensively there is no question that we wouldn’t be getting 900 OPS Arenado. However, he had an OPS of 750 in the second half of last year and is projected to have one of about 760 this year. It’s not like Bregman is coming of an 800 OPS season himself. At this point Bregman is clearly better but Arenado still is a 2.5 WAR guy and at 12-15 million that isn’t bad.
I'm just not sure why the Astros would expect an aging player who has been on a downward trajectory for 2 seasons to get better next season and not worse.
At this point, the Astros need more above average hitters in the lineup to score enough runs to compete with ease (presuming everybody stays healthy at that as well…. Not counting on Altuve/Alvarez to be playing 150+ games next year). While Breg’s is bordering on “above average”… they still likely know exactly what they’re getting from him overall. They’ll really need one of their promoted homegrown position players to compete for an all-star bid at some point…. Really pitiful that the last homegrown all-star was Tucker, drafted in the same class as Bregman. They can’t trade any pitching though… despite them likely being “safer” on that side of the ball given who’s there now and who should be coming back as the season goes on.
Our best hope is 2024 Chas season being an aberration and he plays more like 2023 Chas. I'm still optimistic about Dezenzo.
Yep, if Houston doesn’t add another bat then they’re banking very heavily on 3 things: Yordan staying healthy, McCormick rebounding, and their farm system supplying them with some offense later in the season. Right now Yordan represents the whole difference between Houston being a 2nd tier contender and a below average team.
The improved performance (which isn’t really a big jump, just what he was in the second half of 2024 and all of 2023) comes from PECOTA I believe. He is also only like 33 years old. He very well could be worse with the bat and he wasn’t “good” last year - I really don’t know. All I am saying is that I can understand why some with the Astros have interest in him at the cost he would come at.
It occurred to me that Arrenado could be the position player equivalent of 2017 Justin Verlander. Likely HOF entering his mid 30s and at a point in his career where he is still good but not great. Probably has some mileage left and his reputation will bring attention and positives to the team and fandom but he can't carry the team. Now I'm not saying that the Astros have the ability to make adjustments on him and turn him into an MVP contender for the next few years, but there are definite parallels. Dismissing him out of hand before he even is (potentially) on the team isn't fair IMO. FTR I still would rather have Bregman
The issue with him, is that it appears that lost his power last season. Not only was his barrel rate the lowest of his career, but his average and max EV took a dive. I don't keep up with him, so I don't know if he had any injuries, but the numbers look like he is just getting old.
Arenado was worth 4 runs above average (RAA) last year. That's taking account his glove being worth 6 runs above average, and the positional scarcity score for a 3B being 4. His bat, baserunning, and GIDP numbers all were negative vis-a-vis the average MLB hitter. His RAA score for 2023 was also 4. Bregman was worth 26 RAA in 2023 and 20 RAA last season. There's a gulf between those two that I don't think is reflected by a simple OPS comparison. Arenado also shows a greatly declining skillset with the bat. His exit velo, barrel %, hard hit %, bat speed, they are all very low. All those underlying metrics dropped off from 2022 to 2023, and then further in 2024. He's a future hall of famer, and still a very good defender, but the bat is no longer average. And likely not to improve in his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons he has left on the contract. It's like signing the back 3 years of Bregman's theoretical 6 year contract, if you take the pessimistic approach to his aging curve. The Cards usually know what they are doing when they move on from a Hall of Famer.
Interesting they are listing Chi and Boston as they don't want to go to 6. Breggy is already a notoriously slow starter, wonder how signing late will impact this.
I doubt very seriously that Alex is preparing any differently than any other year. Position players haven't even reported yet.
