I'm just saying there needs to be balance. I am hopeful that Chas returns to 2023, or at least 2022 form. I am hopeful Dezenzo can become a 2+ WAR per year outfielder. I am hopeful that Meyers continues to play gold glove defense, hit lefties very well and not get any worse vs righties. I'm hopeful that Melton and Leon figure out how to make contact. But I don't expect it. Or at least the majority of it. If this team has a top 5 rotation but 3-4 very weak hitters starting the majority of their games, they suddenly look a lot like the Seattle Mariners. And as far as the Hunsicker comparison I'm down with that. Any SP can have an injury that costs a year and a half+. That means you need more depth but also increases the chances of choosing to keep/sign/extend one that ends up not giving you any production or value. I would rather never have any SP under commitment (Urquidy?) than being stuck with a guy who misses full seasons ( Verlander, McCullers, Javier) throwing $$$ Millions away because I made a $$$ commitment to an injury risk. Develop pitching. Have 5+ young SP and more in AAA and trade away the ones with value as they approach FA and use that to keep the organization full of young cheap talent.
Any team that can develop a TOR SP every 2-3 years, a MOR SP every 1-2 years, and 1-2 BOR SP every year will be a contender if they have a very good and deep offense.(and catch the ball) To me this means 7+ above average hitters in the lineup each game and a capable backup for each position without that spot becoming a black hole. (And weaker defenders in least important roles w/ a good defender backup)
hunsicker was before track man and heavy analytics, but it does beg the overall question, is it easier to develop one or the other? I would think it is easier to develop pitching because there is so much data on spin rate, velo, command, arm slot, pitch mix, tunneling. Granted, the injury/attrition rate of pitchers is so high, maybe it offsets the greater ease of developing pitching. Maybe the resulting net likelihood of developing value ends up being relatively equal. I bet Jeff Luhnow had a computer that answered these questions and more.
The issue is that, outside of Framber, all the pitching is young and unpredictable or coming off major injuries. Yeah, they have a lot of guys, but there's a good chance several of them won't be as good as hoped. But unlike a veteran pitching staff, you have no idea who at this point. Meaning if you trade some of them, there's a decent chance you're going to be needing pitching a few months from now if you happen to pick the wrong ones.
We seemingly had 8 MLB caliber pitchers heading into last season, a guy ready to graduate and 2 guys who were "supposed" to be back midseason Yet our season was nearly ruined because we didn't have decent starting pitching for the first 2 months and we had to make a midseason trade.
Last year? Framber was Framber. JV was penciled in here but there was plenty of concern turned 41 and he reported to camp behind schedule due to injury and missed the start of 2023 due to injury also. Javier was coming off of a concerning 2nd half of 2023. Hopeful but clearly reason for concern. Brown had a poor rookie season in 2023 and there were doubts whether he would take the step up he needed to as a #4 starter. Luis Garcia didn't make a start after May 1, 2023, so his health could not be counted on. Jose Urquidy was coming off of a disappointing as well as injury riddled season and is more BOR than MOR guy even when healthy. J P. France was a known AAAA starter who overachieved in 2023. Lance McCullers was Lance McCullers - not expected healthy until he shows it. Spencer Arrighetti had not made his MLB debut and was not a highly regarded prospect by many. Ronel Blanco was a RP converted to SP that had not had much success yet. Brandon Bielak was AAAA depth. Sugar Land had no SP in 2023 who legitimately had a chance to start in Houston, except those mentioned above. 2025: Framber, Brown, Blanco, and Arrighetti have all proven themselves at MLB level to varying degrees and we have no reason to worry about their health. Wesneski is a 26 year old w/ 22 MLB starts and a solid if not spectacular track record. Gusto, Gordon, and Blubaugh all had very promising seasons in AAA last year. Kouba and Ullola are also promising but likely 1/2 a level behind them. This is night and day better than the farm system showed this time last year. Who knows if Garcia, Javier, France, or McCullers contribute. I'm not holding KY breath but all are supposed to hecable to at some point. This time last year, Framber was the only sure thing. Now, at least the top 4 are at that level. The AAA depth is much better. Unlike 2024, this year they added a young controllable SP from outside of the organization. Rotation is in much better shape.
lmfao @ “KY breath”. But yeah I agree with you. The AAA depth is much more talented and experienced than it was last season.
I like how Brown and Arrighetti had basically identical rookie seasons but Brown's was "poor and created doubts" while Arrighetti's "proved himself". And how JP France coming out of nowhere meant he should be questionable the next year, but Blanco doing the same means he's proven. And having two aces in JV and Javier had lots of reasons for concern, but a random Wesneski is just fine as the #5. And Arrighetti going into last year as the Astros Minor League Pitcher of the year was not highly regarded, but the guys this year are all "promising" because of their AAA seasons. Arrighetti and his 4.5 ERA is a "sure thing" this year but Javier and his 4.5 ERA were concerning and thus not reliable. But beyond that, according to your list, the Astros unexpectedly hit on Brown, Blanco, and Arrighetti last year and STILL need pitching help at the deadline.
very valid point. Last year no one was worried about the SP because they figured they had 8 guys with solid enough resumes (Framber, JV, Javier, Urquidy, Brown, and France, with Garcia and McCullers expected to contribute later in the season). Bielak was out of options and seemed like a fine NINTH SP. But beyond those guys, the AAA depth was very very weak: Arrighetti had half a season in AAA with very mediocre numbers. He was a 3rd tier prospect. Blanco had half a season of starting in AAA but was a non-prospect. Beyond those 2, the AAA rotation consisted of Misael Tamarez (fringe prospect), Blair Henley (fringe prospect), Colton Gordon (hurt to start the year), and Ryan Gusto (no AAA experience and a fringe prospect at the time). I think they added AAAA arm Eric Lauer after the season started. This year the Astros have 4 guys with solid resumes, plus 4 guys who can be reasonably expected to contribute later in the season in Garcia, McCullers, Javier, and France (if it weren’t for the battered wife syndrome resulting from 2024). In that view Wesneski lines up in the Bielak role as the NINTH SP. But this year’s AAA rotation appears much more talented and experienced. Blubaugh, Gusto, and Gordon are all 2nd tier prospects with a full year of AAA experience under their belt. Ullola is a 1st or 2nd tier prospect with elite upside. Kouba looks like he’s hurt. Aaron Brown, Tamarez, Henley, Kouba, and AAAA arm Glen Otto are depth that would only be in Houston under the most dire of circumstances. Last season the Astros were beset by an unprecedented number and severity of SP injuries. There’s really no way to plan for that; my main gripe about all that was that Houston was slow to bring in more/better AAAA guys before the season. But not only should they be able to count on not having the same incredible number of pitchers get hurt, they’re in better position to sustain them.
I wouldn't say unprecedented. Starting pitchers get hurt and every now and then it happens all at once. A team just has to deal with it. A lot of the time it can ruin a season. A team shouldn't be eager to trade starting pitching as it gets hurt, but there is just only so much a team can do to weather a season in which you start with 2 guys huirt entering it. If memory serves, 2017 had basically Mike Fiers and Brad Peacock holding together the rotation for a couple of months with Musgrove, Martes, Paulino, and Dayan something helping out while Keuchel, Morton, McCullers, and McHugh were tagging in and out before getting Verlander.
Even in 2017 I don’t think the Astros had 6 SP on the IL at one time. But I agree with yalls point, you don’t trade away big league SP if you want to contend. The only way it makes any sense to me for Houston to trade a SP is if they intend to immediately backfill via free agency (Heaney, Lynn, Quintana, Junis). At the same time, like you said, there’s only so much a team can do to mitigate injury risk. If a team has 6 healthy MLB SP they like going into spring plus 6 healthy talented prospects slotted for AAA, that’s about as much as can be reasonably hope for.
I think we also have to start asking the question of whether the Astros magic that helps turns pitchers into stars also might be doing something that leads to injuries (extreme focus on spin rate, etc). Not saying it does, but there could be a correlation there that makes Astros pitching especially prone to get hurt. Also worth noting that despite all the pitching depth last year at the MLB level, the most common complaint people had about that offseason was not signing one of the starters (people wanted Snell, Montgomery, etc).
I think 2017 topped out with their Top 5 starters out all at once. That said, Framber and Brown were much healthier than any of Keuchel, McHugh, McCuller, Musgrove, and Morton and were expected to be much better pitchers than Fiers and Peacock.
MLB in general is grooming pitchers to pitch at max effort is probably the main issue. If the Astros pitch design stuff adds on to this problem, I'd guess the biggest factor is the Astros evaluating pitch performance probably favors pitchers giving more effort in throwing such that they are likelier to get hurt (i.e., the Astros telling a pitcher to throw a pitch like this is likely less of a problem than the Astros selecting the pitcher giving more effort into throwing the pitch). Though, I could be wrong.
No matter what happens - in 2025, the Astros are going to need pitching. It is the nature of the game, and the question is whether the Astros will need pitching relative to the other teams around them. I would personally feel a lot more confident if the Astros had someone like Quintana or Piveda or Lynn that can eat innings and stay healthy. Arrighetti showed at times that he could put it all together and be a good MLB starter, but he is a guy that gets you 5 innings. He is a maximum effort pitcher and struggles when he is tired. Fans forget that Brown was one start from being sent to AAA before he turned it around and went on a run. Valdez is a stud but at some point will hit a hiccup or two. Few pitchers pitch as many innings as consistently as he has. Blanco looked the part of a good starting pitcher for most of the season - but he has only done it once. Luis Garcia is a question mark....... I expect nothing from Javier in 2025. Who knows what JP France will contribute in 2025. Kikuchi is gone........ he and Verlander. Wesneski really hasn't proven anything as a pro and I will never count on McCullers again. Pressly is gone from the bullpen as well.
The pitching head gurus/FO/Nerd Cave wanted Wesneski, from what they saw. There is that. If I had to bet, I would have Wesneski being the 2025 Astros breakout player of the year.
