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Stats & JVG: How efficient were we really last season?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Houkom, Oct 15, 2004.

  1. Houkom

    Houkom Member

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    I am watching the game, seeing a lot of good things!

    TO necessary to be 10th overall, with everything else being equal:


    (FTM/2+FGM) / (FTA/2+FGA+TO) = Oeff

    (FTM/2+FGM)= Oeff *(FTA/2+FGA+TO)

    (FTM/2+FGM)/Oeff - FTA/2 - FGA = TO


    Oeff=0.41646 (Portland)


    2003-04: (1371/2+2738)/0.41646 - 1774/2 - 6195 = 13.88 TO/PG

    Getting our To per game down to 13.88 would do it.
     
  2. DavidS

    DavidS Member

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    Funny how seeing makes people believers. I'm waiting for Jumpman to jump on board (pun not intended).
     
  3. Miggidy Markell

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    OK, and that is YOUR opinion. As is marking YOUR words. This bbs is for discussion not contridicting, true? The Magic will be one of the most turnover prone teams? Fair enough, I see how you are taking a shot at Steve and Cuttino's game. Which is your opinion? True? Now once the season is over and the numbers are in the books, you have the chance to say "I told you so". But tryin to say it now is just bias which is too common on here now days, not like the good old days (97-00).

    Now however, if you happen to be wrong and the Rockets don't produce on the offensive end. I hope you are man enough to accept being wrong and be a good sport instead of the immature insults you have attempted to use in this thread.
     
  4. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden Contributing Member

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    My opinion?? Its a known fact that Francis and Mobley are turnover prone. Its a known fact that Francis and Mobley need the ball in their hands to be effective.

    Put 1 and 2 together and its pretty clear that the Magic will be turnover prone.

    As for the Rockets, Yao, JJ, Mo are all slightly turnover prone, but not to the extent of Francis and Mobley. However Tmac, Howard and Lue take care of the ball very well, therefore we will be less turnover prone than last year, as a team.

    This isn't just my opinion, this is based on these guys' history. Did you watch the game last night? When the starters were in, that was some of the best passing i've seen in years for this team. And to think, this is their third game together.

    As for insults, i apologize if i hurt your feelings. Its just that i don't see any logic in the things you say. While on the other hand, even though i may not agree with everything Houkom says, i see that he has thought everything through and presented a good case.
     
  5. JumpMan

    JumpMan Member
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    I did say an average team could play for years and still be an average team, I think the peak of this Rocket's team is higher than years past but not elite championship level until it gets better players.

    Ok.

    Yeah. Have you looked at the West? It's going to be WILD!

    Now there's a lot on your post about fine tuning and one step at a time, that's true, but I've been talking about right now. To me the Rockets aren't ready to be an elite offense with under 14 TOs and more than 92 94 points, better than last season, but like I said the Rockets will have to rely on defense first yet again.
     
  6. DavidS

    DavidS Member

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    Yep. Look at our current team like this....

    WE'RE ENTERING THE FUN PART OF TEAM BUILDING!

    What is the "fun part" you ask? It's what we have achieved so far. We have a competent coach, two smart young stars in Yao and McGrady. And a whole roster of very good role players.

    The foundation has been laid. So, the "fun part" as fans is this -> We fine-tune from here...

    So, most of the season will be filled with comments like, "Lets look for a better PG, or "Lets find a better SF," or "Lets find a better sharp shooter." Fine-tuning (or even finD-tuning ;) ). That's the fun part. We wont be hearing things like "We need a new star" or "We need a leader." The hard part is out of the way. Thus, this is the *fun part* of being Rox fan today.

    As McGrady said yesterday, "It's good to play with a REAL team." :cool: McGrady KNOWS! He senses it. And so do a lot of Rox fans! Enjoy the season!
     
    #66 DavidS, Oct 17, 2004
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2004
  7. Houkom

    Houkom Member

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    As I saw the discussion on the trade effect on TO for Orlando and Rockets, I tried to confirm/infirm that the trade would affect the offensive efficiency positively for the rockets and negatively for the Magics.

    I do not know how Realgm calculates the 'team outlook' and it actually doesn't provide all that I need for the Oeff operation.

    Figures are based on last year’s player’s stats: evaluates what their contributions were to their respective teams and the net contribution per stat category that the player brought. These evaluations adjust for game time and injuries (that is why Reece has a higher number of game played and Mc Grady a higher number of FGM than the regular season stats for example).

    Interesting fact about player's game time (This number should be interpreted in the following manner, out of the total minutes played in a game by Orlando, 16.64% of them were played by Mc Grady):
    - MacGrady game minutes share is lower than both Mobley and Francis.
    - Orlando traded 'more' minutes to get 'less' from Houston (TOTAL Player GT), the difference? Gaines.


    <BR><BR><TABLE align=center border=1 cellpadding=1 cellspacing=2><TR><TD> Year </TD><TD> Teams </TD><TD> Player </TD><TD> G </TD><TD> Min </TD><TD> Players GT </TD><TD> FGM </TD><TD> FGA </TD><TD> FTM </TD><TD> FTA </TD><TD> TO </TD><TR><TR><TD> 2003-04 </TD><TD> Orlando Magics </TD><TD> McGrady, Tracy </TD><TD> 67 </TD><TD> 2675 </TD><TD> 16.64% </TD><TD> 799.2 </TD><TD> 1,916.6 </TD><TD> 487.1 </TD><TD> 611.9 </TD><TD> 219.1 </TD><TR><TR><TD> 2003-04 </TD><TD> Orlando Magics </TD><TD> Howard, Juwan </TD><TD> 81 </TD><TD> 2877 </TD><TD> 14.80% </TD><TD> 535.5 </TD><TD> 1,183.4 </TD><TD> 321.9 </TD><TD> 397.9 </TD><TD> 180.2 </TD><TR><TR><TD> 2003-04 </TD><TD> Orlando Magics </TD><TD> Lue, Tyronn </TD><TD> 76 </TD><TD> 2332 </TD><TD> 12.79% </TD><TD> 333.4 </TD><TD> 770.4 </TD><TD> 109.0 </TD><TD> 141.3 </TD><TD> 133.8 </TD><TR><TR><TD> 2003-04 </TD><TD> Orlando Magics </TD><TD> Gaines, Reece </TD><TD> 82 </TD><TD> 364 </TD><TD> 1.85% </TD><TD> 25.0 </TD><TD> 86.0 </TD><TD> 16.0 </TD><TD> 25.0 </TD><TD> 18.0 </TD><TR><TR><TD> 2003-04 </TD><TD> Houston Rockets </TD><TD> Francis, Steve </TD><TD> 79 </TD><TD> 3194 </TD><TD> 16.85% </TD><TD> (467.1) </TD><TD> (1,159.4) </TD><TD> (349.8) </TD><TD> (451.5) </TD><TD> (305.2) </TD><TR><TR><TD> 2003-04 </TD><TD> Houston Rockets </TD><TD> Mobley, Cuttino </TD><TD> 80 </TD><TD> 3229 </TD><TD> 16.82% </TD><TD> (471.5) </TD><TD> (1,108.0) </TD><TD> (180.4) </TD><TD> (222.4) </TD><TD> (184.5) </TD><TR><TR><TD> 2003-04 </TD><TD> Houston Rockets </TD><TD> Cato, Kelvin </TD><TD> 69 </TD><TD> 1743 </TD><TD> 10.53% </TD><TD> (191.3) </TD><TD> (427.8) </TD><TD> (114.1) </TD><TD> (168.8) </TD><TD> (99.8) </TD><TR><TR><TD> </TD><TD> TOTAL </TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD><TD> 1.88% </TD><TD> 563.2 </TD><TD> 1,261.1 </TD><TD> 289.7 </TD><TD> 333.4 </TD><TD> (38.4) </TD><TR></TABLE><BR>


    What does that mean for the Offensive efficiency of both teams? You can already see that all indicators are pushing one way:

    Oeff = (FTM/2+FGM) / (FTA/2+FGA+TO) ><? ((FTM + FTM+ )/2+(FGM + FGM+)) / (FTA/2+ (FGA - FGA+) + (TO + TO+)) = Oeff


    - Orlando: 0.4126 > ((1474 - 289.7 )/2+( 2904 - 563.2)) / ((2000 - 333.4)/2+ (6768 - 1,261.1) + ( 1063 + 38.4)) = 0.3937


    - Houston: 0.4086 < ((1371 + 289.7 )/2+( 2738 + 563.2)) / (( 1774 + 333.4)/2+ (6195 + 1,261.1) + (1295 - 38.4)) = 0.4230


    Mind you: I am not saying that this is how it will be next season! It does seem that Orlando's offense will suffer from the trade. Off course, this does not consider chemistry adjustments, learning curve, scoring adjustments, additional trades; it only states that if everything remains the same, Orlando offense will decline, contrary to Houston's. Note that both adjusted Offensive efficiency scores are still realistic and comparable to other teams (previous posts).
    ‘Yeah, sure but what about defense’ will you say? Gross trade outlook for D stats are in favor of Orlando, but is its impact significant enough or not?

    (Pat: This is another reason why it is better to do this approach than simple Win loss ratio: you are able to isolate and estimate possible causes).

    Calculating the impact on the defensive efficiency is much more complex: It requires having the players’ opponent Oeff, which is near impossible.

    There is another (long) way to gauge that though:

    1. Evaluate the impact that each defensive stat has on the Deff in the NBA.
    2. Calculate the D stats as done for the O stats used above.
    3. Multiply the change the trade brings to the team's outlook for each stat by the impact factor establish in 1=> You then have the modified Deff.

    It is quite interesting to do that: It will also validate / invalidate the Deff indirectly and gauge what stat has a deeper impact on Defensive efficiency.

    It is possible, but I'll save that for another day, :)

    However, if it is true that getting an offense is tougher than getting a defense, Orlando came out a looser on this one and this post should have been in the Tyler Durden (The Orlando Trade is Looking Like a Steal) thread :).
     
  8. DavidS

    DavidS Member

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    Check this out...interesting! :D Who's your daddy?!

    <TABLE align=center border=1 cellpadding=1 cellspacing=3>
    <TD>Year</TD><TD> Teams </TD><TD> Player </TD><TD> G </TD><TD> Min </TD><TD> Players GT </TD><TD> FGM </TD><TD> FGA </TD><TD> FTM </TD><TD> FTA </TD><TD> TO </TD>

    <TR><TR><TD> 2003-04 </TD><TD> Orlando Magic </TD><TD> Howard, Juwan </TD><TD> 81 </TD><TD> 2877 </TD><TD> 14.80% </TD><TD> 535.5 </TD><TD> 1,183.4 </TD><TD> 321.9 </TD><TD> 397.9 </TD><TD> 180.2 </TD>

    <TR><TR><TD> 2003-04 </TD><TD> Houston Rockets </TD><TD> Francis, Steve </TD><TD> 79 </TD><TD> 3194 </TD><TD> 16.85% </TD><TD> (467.1) </TD><TD> (1,159.4) </TD><TD> (349.8) </TD><TD> (451.5) </TD><TD> (305.2) </TD>
    </TD><TR></TABLE><BR>
     
    #68 DavidS, Oct 17, 2004
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2004
  9. Houkom

    Houkom Member

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    Just to avoid people being confused: these numbers have been adjusted so as to simulate both Francis and Howard playing 82 games a season while keeping the same share of the minutes...

    Nonetheless, they are still as valid and revealing...

    Who could have thought Howard good enough that we would be comparing Howard numbers to Francis?
     
  10. Houkom

    Houkom Member

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    These figures could also show how Houstons' has a slower pace than Orlando's:

    While Francis' minute share are higher, his FGA are lower while being one the major focus of the offense too.


    For this, Howard and Francis had similar roles last year.
     
  11. montevideo

    montevideo Member

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    Houkom,

    Your figures are very good - and really bring out TO's as factor.

    I think they correlate very closely to team offense and defense average points per game - which was my original point - but that doesn't take away from the fact that I think you are dead on on all your points.

    Thanks for the number crunching and salient analysis!
     
  12. Miggidy Markell

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    I don't mean to throw preseason numbers in, but 19 assists and 22 to's?

    I think some of you are over confident and maybe just too excited going into this season. But the same thing happened when Pippen came here in 99.

    Really though, I hope everything DavidS and Tyler say come true because Houston diseaves to have a great team but IMO it wont be for at least another 2-3 years.
     
  13. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden Contributing Member

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    With scrubs playing half the minutes. When this will be the fourth game this new team has ever played with eachother.

    If you don't mean to throw preseaon numbers in, then why did you? When you fully realize that anyone with half a brain will bring up what i just did. Unless... you didn't think of it yourself?

    You say i use petty insults, but look at the "arguments" i have to deal with. I like to have a good debate, but thats only fun when your opponent is using their brain, ala Houkom. In this case its so much easier to just go quote my man Kuniva than waste my time explain basic logic to you.
     
  14. DavidS

    DavidS Member

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    MM,

    Do you understand the difference a *single* preseason game and the *rest* of the season? Don't tell me all you can see is "19 assist and 22 TO." Brilliant! :confused:

    Hey, how about this one? Gaines made a turnover at the end of the game! We're DOOMED! Or, what about this? Yao caused 5 TO!!! Oh, nooooooooo! Or JJ got 5 TO!!!!!! Help us!!!! That single game represents the rest of the season!!!

    THE SKY IS FALLING! I mean come on...:rolleyes:

    Pisttt....did you even watch the game? It's obvious you can't even *see* what we are talking about when we describe changes in the way the team executes.

    How about this...check out that win column for the first 25 or so games. Then, get back to me about how we are not as good as YOU think.

    Yes, I'm THAT confident that we will be THAT much better than the last FIVE years!
     
    #74 DavidS, Oct 19, 2004
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2004
  15. Miggidy Markell

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    Why are you replying me then? You just say the same thing over and over and it's just basically bs anyway so just shut up for gods sake. How long have you been posting on here/been a Rocket fan anywayz?

    Posters like you are the reason why I've seen alot of great posters on clutchcity/clutchfans disappear.

    If you are the future of what this bbs is coming to then I really feel for clutch and the gang for working so hard for a waste.
     
  16. Miggidy Markell

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    Dude, do you read? I didn't proclaim that the season is over because of one pre-season game! Why are my words always thrown out of context with you? I, probably more-so then you, want the Rockets to have a great season. But in this thread, people have been throwing up preseason numbers and saying how much better the team is, so why not?
    Because I wanted to challenge the fact that people are saying how much better the Rockets look already, well, how do you people know? Pre-season games.... right?
    Numbers from last season on different players in different situations really cannot be be made logic. How many players you see under-achieve or over-achieve after a trade and with a different system? Many.
    Why did I throw in 19assists and 22 to's. Because I was just wanting to show that we aren't THAT much better already like the hype coming from the bbs is saying so far.

    Do you not agree?
     
  17. Miggidy Markell

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    Forgot to mention, this is what I've been saying basically in my posts. I was not lashing out at anyones ideas or opinions, just stating my own and did not state that it WILL happen or that i'm SO confident that it will happen. I actually said that if what you all said becomes evident late into the season I'd admitt that I am wrong. I know that I'm not always right, but I don't really see the same sort of "sportsmanship" in the rest of you here.

    If I agree with everything you say (even if it's against my opinion) will I be more popular with you?
     
  18. DavidS

    DavidS Member

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    Ok, let me try and explain it. And this is might be hard to understand. But there are good scouts and bad scouts. There are good coaches and there are bad coaches. There are bad players and good players. And all of them have areas that are in-between. Lots of grey areas...

    Why are good scouts hired over other scouts that aren't that good? Could it be that they just *see* things that the others can't?

    Now, some people (some fans) know what to look for in talent, how the game is played, how plays are executed, how players mesh, why some players excel and why some players struggle, why talent and team are just as important...Now, we're not perfect. But we can pretty much give a good measure of how the game is supposed to be played for the best possible chance of success. We may not be able to put it into words because it's internal to what we see with OUR own eyes. Maybe I COULD explain it to you on a black board where I would write out stats, show technique examples, do comparison graphs, and describe complex ideas like timing and decision making (actually show you on the court). These things can NOT be done on a BBS! There's a communication barrier.

    So, you ask how do "we know" after a few preseasons games? Because to *us*, it's night-and-day. You may NOT *see* this, and we may not be able to "write it out for you in words (although, it has been TRIED many times)." Some of us are able to recognize it like a brick in the face! Yes, it's that obvious to *us*!

    Put it this way...I've seen so much positive evidence (to me) in the last three preseason games (as well as roster changes that give their own type of evidence) than I have in the whole last FIVE YEARS COMBINED!

    By the way....Pippen was an experiment. As soon as Rudy started to use him as a "Bullard" I knew it was going to be a failure (as well as other reasons due to Hakeem's knees and back). I always yelled at the TV (at Rudy), "Why is Pippen always out on the 3 pt line?! It's a waste of talent!" But that's another story.
     
    #78 DavidS, Oct 19, 2004
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2004
  19. Miggidy Markell

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    OK I understand what you are saying, but I don't see how obvious it is that the current team is so great already. So I guess this doesn't make me as smart as everyone else.

    I'll come along, but I cannot judge "guilty or not guilty" until I have some hard evidence (at least 40 games).
     
  20. DavidS

    DavidS Member

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    Not "great!" Not yet. But very, very good. And, will get better each game they play.

    45 wins is not "very very good" just in case you are wondering.

    55 is very very good!

    60+ is great! (Next years goal)

    Although, winning a championship is the ultimate measure of "great."
     
    #80 DavidS, Oct 19, 2004
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2004

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