The only way he's getting 30 mil per yr is if he signed a shorter deal (1/30 or 2/60 or 3/90). He can demand 30 mil all day long but no team is going to give him 6/180 or 7/210. Now TOR may do a 4/120 or 5/150 but once you break that down it's less then the 6/156 that Houston has on the table. It's less guaranteed money and makes him a FA again when he's 35/36 yrs old. Brown needs to set a deadline date to accept their offer or they're pulling it.
They definitely might but then Boras will want more yrs and guaranteed money. I would definitely do that if I was Houston with so much money coming off the books next yr and the year after.
IF the bulk of Bregman’s projected value is in the next 3 seasons, why would the Astros agree to a 5 year deal? That just does not make sense to me. #1762
One other thing I think we fail to think about when throwing out these contract numbers, 6/156 for Houston translates differently for other teams. NY would have to offer more like 6/168 for comparable value after taxing. Toronto has to offer 6/175. This is probably a little lower than the actual numbers because not only are contracts taxed for home games, they are also taxed for away games. Playing in Boston for example, a player pays around 5-6% for 81 home games, but they also play more games at Baltimore, NY and Toronto which all have pretty significant income taxes (TB has none). Houston benefits from no state income tax so home games and games at Tex are untaxed. Seattle also has no income tax so those are the same. They do get taxed for games in California pretty heavily but when the Athletics move to Nevada there is no tax there. Non divisional games are pretty much a wash since over a two year period they will play very similar schedules. So when talking about the value of 6/156 you have to realize that any of the other teams that are being floated as interested will have to add 8-19 million to that to offer comparable value.
Because lengthening the deal lessens the CBT impact and it’s not like he has no value in years 4-5. A $120M/3yr deal carries a lot more risk than a $150M/5yr deal.
I still think Bregs wants to be here. Signing him to $156/6 with first year opt out could be something that works for him. If he rakes then he can opt out, do this over again next year and search for around a 5 year deal then. However, if he's average then he still has the 5 years security. Bregman and Boras could save face easily knowing they have options, even if they may not exercise it.
And from the players position if he compares 5/150 to 6/156 he only has to get a 1/7 deal after the 5/150 to be ahead.
Great point. If I were Bregman or his agent I would simply be looking for the largest amount of guaranteee after-tax money I could get, regardless of length. Between his age, production over the last few seasons, and injury history, there are absolutely not guarantees (or even probabilities) that he will be in position to land a significant contract 5, 4, or even 2 seasons.
I think length does become an issue if the guarantee is spread out too far. If $170M is the largest guarantee but is only available in a 10 year deal, but he can get $150M over 5 years, it's a no brainer. He should be able to get 2/$20M at age 36 and if not, he has millions in the bank and 5 extra years of retirement may be better than playing 5 extra years for that $20M.
I disagree but understand your logic. I just don’t think Bregman is going to age well enough to be valuable into his late 30s and whatever chance there is that he will age well pales in comparison to the odds of him getting hurt or rapidly declining over the next 1-2 seasons.
Your statement implies that you have data showing that a big chance he rapidly declines / suffers a big injury in the next 2 years. You don't. It's just your pessimistic gut feeling. I personally think Bregman has a skillset - smarts, work ethic, defense, batting eye - that will age well over time.
It’s a shame that Bregman is doing this. The Astros offered 26 mil a year for 6 years and he’s demanding 30? All the money he needs for the rest of his life is in the contract that just expired. This is all likely just for his extended family, after his death. I’m not saying play for free, I’m saying play for 26 million. Bro you aren't a $30 million dollar guy!
In the comparison given ($150 over 5 vs $170 over 10), Bregman also has to do 5 years less of work plus the present value of getting $30MM a year instead of $17MM/yr makes the contracts far more similar in total dollars anyway. Bregman would just need to make $1-$2 MM per year in his latter years in a world where middling free agents make $5MM+ / yr to break even. That's not even accounting for contract inflation where mediocre players might be making way more than that in 5 years as the going rate.
The same could be said for Crane. He's offering $26 but not willing to offer $30? Crane has all the money in the world for generations for his extended family after death. Shame Crane is doing this. Right? Why is it always on the players?
