To me, a plus bat and impact bat are one and the same. It’s just semantics. For five million, Polanco would be fine as a depth piece with upside.
Christian Walker at 3/60 is by far the best move the Astros made this offseason. He’s the best defensive first baseman in baseball and has had an .OPS over .800 the previous three seasons. Getting him for 60M because he’s old is a steal. He’s a massive upgrade over Jon Singleton and Jose Abreu. Not to mention, the Astros positioned themselves to not get handcuffed by Bregman and Boras taking their sweet time to explore the market and pray someone gives him his $200M. I most certainly hope Alex comes to his senses and realizes it’s not worth pissing away his legacy in Houston for the current offers on the table, but the Astros are good at the corners, either way.
As much as I hope and expect Houston will add another bat to effectively improve their OF, I’m not totally down on the idea of a McCormick/Meyers/Dezenzo outfield. It would be very good defensively and Dezenzo provides quite a bit of offensive upside. Last season kind of killed any hope I had for Meyers blossoming into a star player, but he’s one of the best defensive players in the league and I have hopes that Trammell can mitigate some of Meyers’ weakness against RHP (just as Dubon can mitigate Dezenzo’s potential weakness against LHP). I especially wouldn’t mind this lineup because I expect at least one other OF (Melton, Smith, Matthews, Whitcomb, Leon, Cole, Baez, Corona, Hamilton, Barber, Daniels, Cerny, etc.) will be ready to come up and play everyday by midseason if any of Dezenzo/Meyers/McCormick prove not up to snuff.
I have a good friend who is a very knowledgeable and long time Mariners fan. He says Trammell is the nicest guy you will ever meet, but a AAAA player at best.
Jose Abreu had an OPS over .800 for the 3 previous years and we got a steal with 3/$58.5M because he was old. And this isn't an indictment on Walker. It is a preference for Alex Bregman over him.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6094928/2025/01/28/astros-gm-dana-brown-ryan-pressly-relationship/ This week, a league source indicated that Brown has continued to shop Montero throughout the winter to no avail. Any scenario in which he’s moved would involve the Astros eating a majority of the money Montero is owed. Houston only had to pay $5.5 million of Pressly’s $14 million salary, putting its payroll around $4.8 million under the first luxury tax threshold, according to Cot’s Contracts. On Tuesday, Brown said adding a left-handed bat is “sort of a priority” while conversations about a reunion with Alex Bregman continue “internally.” Brown said he planned to return unanswered text messages from Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras, later Tuesday afternoon. “We are definitely having conversations within our front office,” Brown said. “We haven’t reached back out to Boras. At some point, it could turn to that. We’re taking a deep look at what it would look like if we acquired him and how it would look for us financially, does it make sense to do it? “I would mostly say it’s all internal conversations as to what we would like to do in terms of Bregman.”
Abreu had a lot of red flags in his hitting profile. Most notably, a precipitous home run decline especially in the second half of the 2022 season. He was also entering his age-36 season when he was signed. Walker is entering his age-34 season. That two-year difference matters. I want Alex Bregman to return, too, but I’d rather have Bregman and Christian Walker than Bregman and Isaac Paredes as a tandem.
I agree Walker is a significantly smaller risk than Abreu. I also prefer Walker to Paredes if Bregman were in the fold. However, I REALLY prefer Walker, Paredes, AND Bregman and just having to figure out playing time. Another thing is that Bregman might as well hit left handed the way he handles RHP.
You're not wrong. I'm just saying if my options were Bregman + Paredes vs Walker + Paredes, I'd take the former. That option is off the table now, so it doesn't really matter. I'm very comfortable with Walker in year 1 of his deal. I'm very afraid of year 3. Similarly I'd have been very comfortable for the next 4 years of Bregman, but not by year 6.
I think a great goal for the position player roster would be to have all 9 everyday spots filled by a player with at least one 3 win season on his resume while having Dubon, Caratini, and Meyers (all of whom have a season of at least 1.9 fwar on their resume) on the bench.
I was looking for an official Isaac Paredes Astros press conference after being traded but all I could find was a phone video recording. Not necessary? Or optional? Just odd since he's an all star caliber level player.
Really? You mean to tell me that no one wants Montero? The Astros need to find someone to eat half his salary - and then provide them international money in return or maybe a big leaguer that is not a top priority for the Astros. "Only 5.5 Million"? Brown paid that amount because of the young Colombian pitcher that M&M wanted. I still fail to see how the Astros will be under the tax for the season moving half of Montero's contract coupled with the savings from Pressly. Either the Astros are going to operate above the tax again and will get under in next season - or someone else will be moved in trade.... be that Caratini or a productive player moved for a bat. "Sort of a priority" - Brown always says this about a lefty bat. Really they just need a good hitter that can play a corner outfield spot. That will mean going over the tax line or making a trade. Nice text manners letting everyone know that you left Boras hanging. Then again I am not sure what there is really to say to Boras. The offer is already out there and if someone was offering more - Bregman would be signed. I used to think that Boras pulled rabbits out of his hat - but he didn't do that last year. So is he considering a NEW offer for Bregman OR is he realizing that long term adding Bregman could financially tie up the Astros, especially with a 3rd baseman already on the roster. Translation: " Mr. Crane, I received some text messages from Scott Boras concerning Alex Bregman. What would you like to do?" The decision is being made by Crane and Brown is just trying to make whatever Crane wants to happen - happen as painlessly as possible.
7 Things I think I think: The Astros are currently about $12M under the CBT. They are right in line with their original offseason plan, which included trading Pressly and Tucker and adding 3 bats and a pitcher. They are ok with Paredes and Walker being 2 of the 3 bats and Wesneski being the pitcher but they’re going to stay active in the pitcher market and they are intent on adding another bat. They want to go into the season with a stacked roster, improved farm, and ~$5M under the CBT. They already knew they needed to get rid of Pressly because he was unhappy and declining and their offseason budget assumed they’d have most of his salary off the books. They are super high on Jorge Polanco. They fully expect he would post an >.800 OPS playing for the Astros and they think he would be an average or better defensive LF. They have targeted him with similar passion for how they targeted Jose Abreu, Christian Walker, and Isaac Paredes. That said, of course there’s a price limit, and if they don’t sign Polanco, they are ok giving Dezenzo a shot to be the everyday LF. They have never expected to sign Bregman and he has always been viewed as a potential exception to their offseason plan. They made him an offer they think represents a good value to them and it remains open. They’re not going to negotiate further. If Bregman chooses to accept their offer, at any point, they will “make it work”. He is pretty much the only player they will go over the CBT for, and they know signing Bregman means going over the CBT this year. Crane has approved that exception. They have been discussing plans for Altuve’s defensive future for over a year. They know he will not be a viable everyday 2B thru the remainder of his contract and they now know it’s not viable to expect Alvarez to play the field with any regularity. So they are now broaching the subject with Altuve and we will see him play a few (<20) games in LF this year (regardless of whether they sign Bregman) in the interest of “increasing our versatility.” He will transition to playing less 2B, more LF, more DH, and fewer games overall over his remaining years. They expect to sign Polanco and still be under the CBT. They will be willing to trade Caratini to make additional room if needed. They would also be willing to trade Caratini to make room for another pitching addition for the right player. Dana Brown is not willing to trade prospects to dump Montero’s contract. He would rather find a team that would be willing to take on $4M+ without prospects. But trading Montero is not required for any of the moves they currently have planned.
Where are you getting or calculating $12M under the CBT when most reports have them $4-$6 Mil under after the Pressly trade?
I could be wrong. There’s a lot of guesswork involved related to minimum salaries, player benefits, etc. I personally think the spotrac estimates are the closest and they had Houston ~$4M under before the Pressly trade. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/tax
