The Astros are doing what they always do. They put a value they think is fair for Bregman and will not go over it. I don't think they have plans for the money on someone expensive so it will remain in tact even if they sign a mediocre guy like Profar. I much prefer they go after Luis Robert Jr and give up Bregman leaving Paredes at 3b. To me that would be an end to the offer for Bregman.
All about cost/value. I’d rather trade a couple 2nd tier prospects (say any 2 of Baez, Cole, Ullola, Blubaugh, Forcucci, or Brito) for Robert and his contract ($8M this year with 2 $20M team options) than pay Bregman $200M over 6 or 7 years.
Yes, mainly because I think Paredes was a homerun signing. I'm really sick of Bregman's slow start and think he is declining, not to mention his injury that is risky. I am concerned about our defense and Bregman is definitely a plus in that regard. Our OF has to be addressed to compete this year. I don't want to waste another year of Alvarez.
I understand your view. I think Bregman is the glue. If he does leave, many little and behind the scenes things will just start ( or continue) to crumble. I know that nobody here has the same opinion of Alex that I do, but I think that since Correa left, he has been the most important and valuable person* in this organization. And I don't see anyone currently here filling his shoes. I say person, because I acknowledge that there are players that are better on the field, but nobody brings as much diverse value to so many areas.
I get your point, but 6 years at his cost is a lot. I also really think Brown is a really good evaluator of talent. I don't want the Astros to get away from the St. Louis model of competing for decades and be willing to cut the strings for declining players and develop their own. We were hurt bad with the draft pick punishments, but I trust Brown going forward. Robert and Paredes are real value contracts and I trust Brown to replace what we give up for Robert. Win now and later is definitely in the cards.
You are right. 6 years is a long time and none if us know what Bregman will be bringing to the table, or what the CBA will dictate team spending requirements/limits will be.
Alex's worst season, he averaged 1 bWAR every 190 PAs. Last year, it was 155. 1 WAR is generally accepted to be worth $8-10M I can extrapolate this to say Alex is worth at least $2M for each 50 PAs. Offer him 6/$144M ($24M per season) Then give him $1.5M for every 50 PAs starting at 500. 500 PAs= $25.5M 550 PAs= $27M 600 PAs = $28.5M 650 PAs = $30M 700 PAs = $31.5M Obviously, his WAR per PA will decline over time, but he won't be getting as many PAs if he isn't productive.
Alex should swallow his pride and take the very fair offer, like I'm sure Correa and Springer wish they would have.
Brown should call Boras back and say, "Hey, glad I got a hold of you. I'm looking to trade for one of your third baseman and wanted to know what you'd take for... oh crap this is Boras, my bad. I misdialed."
While this sounds great in theory, it’s the last thing Brown should do if the team wants Bregman back.
I still remember when Boras got the Rangers to bid against themselves when going after Alex Rodriguez. That was such a farce of a situation. In this Bregman situation, at least the Astros let the league know there is a legit and real floor to the negotiations.
I hope I remember when Boras got fired by his client, Alex Bregman, because he was trying to be a slick pushover.
Keuchel did end up making $108 mil roughly in 7 years after rejecting the $90 mil/5 year deal before. But with 2022 being his would-be FA year (if he singed that 5 year deal), he may have been able to secure another 3+ year deal as he didn't fall off the wagon completely until 2022.
They've had a ROY candidate for the last decade. I dont see how anybody could say the loss of draft picks hurt real bad. Sure they weren't good, but losing the draft picks wasn't a game changer.
