Keep Amen, everybody else is fairly moveable. Do not pay $150 million for a role player like Jabby Smith Jr.
Not to mention this also assumes the Rockets don't dip into the MLE/BE market each offseason, meaning they aren't upgrading the team externally, but rather just hope for internal improvement year to year. Also, if one of their picks turn into high lottery picks, that also eats into a lot of the cap space. Furthermore, if the Rockets haven't kept going deep into the playoffs and perhaps even winning championships by that point, how likely is it that Tilman Fertitta will want to hemorrhage money each year for a non-championship team? This is why I think the Rockets will make some sort of consolidation deal in the near future, especially if Jalen truly breaks out into a star and guarantees to opt up in 2 years. Put together 2-3 of the youngsters for a star on another team.
I posted this on another thread, but while the next couple years should be ok, things may get tight in 2027 - 2028: Amen likely signs a 25% max Green likely opts outs and signs for between 20 - 25% Sengun will take up about 20% of the cap Bari, if extended, likely will be around 15% of the cap That's between 880 - 85% of the cap for four guys. Unless they become a second apron team - which I doubt, - the Rockets will have to make some tough decisions. The good thing is we have a lot of draft capital going forward. If we don't swing a big trade, we can use that capital to replenish our depth, and hopefully we'll be able to trade guys who we may not be able to keep for even more future draft capital.
Yeah, the draft pick salary is another point I didn't address. We do have FRPs coming up. I've almost been thinking of them as trade assets though, it's just so hard to see how you work somebody like say pick #12 in the draft into our rotation. I feel like Stone might be likely to just keep punting draft picks by trading them for other FRPs as we go along. Maybe get a late first rounder to address the Stepien Rule as needed.
Remember, we're going over the cap, and I hope going over at least the first apron. (I'm sure we won't go over the 2nd apron, that would be bad cap management and I doubt Tilman is willing to pay that much luxury tax.) We're also anticipating the cap to rise by 10% each year due to the new media deals. So really we have more than "100 percent" to play with.
We don't even have the option of paying him $47M until, not next offseason, but the one after that. So we'll have a better feel for his talent level before we have to make that decision. But yes, right now he is easily on track to become a max player if you assume a normal trajectory of improvement. Dude is averaging a double-double as a starter, with insane defense and scoring efficiency and pretty good playmaking, as barely more than a rookie.
Honestly our offense is kinda mess without FVV setting the tone. We won so many close games due to FVV controlling the tempo at the end of games and hitting huge shots when we can't buy a basket.
Mobley, Barnes, Wagner, Bane all got maxes this past offseason. So yes, Amen is getting the same 5yr max offer next offseason regardless of whether you think he's worth it or not.
That makes more sense. He's clearly worth it, but in terms of team construct he will probably need to leave a little meat on the bone to keep the chemistry together.
Very true. I'm not so worried about the "cap" per se. It's resigning guys like Eason, Cam, Reed, etc. and potentially extending Brooks again. The difference between 85% of the cap and the first apron in 2027 - 2028 is about $77M to fill out the rest of the roster. Tight, but certainly not impossible.
Nothing is concerning regarding the 2nd Apron until Amen’s Max kicks in. And let’s keep our scenarios separate. In the scenario that all our Core 7 hit enough to warrant this thread, that also means FVV and Dillon have longterm replacements, right.
So if Reed comes along slowly but is ready to step in for FVV by the time Amen's max kicks in, that could work. And/or if we pick up FVV's option, but then extend him on a longer, lower-priced contract. I don't see us wanting to part with Fred and Dillon.
I think if Green is a max player in the open market then with Sengun and Amen we can prob afford to lose 1.
