Distraction? Spring Training hasn't even started yet. There's been no distraction nor drama. Because he's a really good player that helped us win 2 World Series titles? He's not the superstar he looked like when they were using the juiced baseballs, but I'll take a guy like him all day every day.
What does moving on even mean? Unless the Astros have other moves on hold (and I suspect they don't have anything major going on), it's meaningless. We're in January. Waiting it out has no effect on anyone. And it's not particularly unheard of for big deals to happen late in the offseason. I believe both Harper and Machado signed their $300MM+ deals in mid February.
There are no starting-caliber free agent outfielders available in free agency. Jurickson Profar was the last one. An outfield upgrade will have to come via trade if Bregman signs elsewhere.
This is why I appreciate Altuve so much. Boras is his agent too, but Altuve made it clear what he wanted...."I want to stay in Houston, let's secure a competitive deal quickly and call it a day. Thanks." Altuve probably could have gotten more testing FA all the way, but the guy wants to be here, just pay me a fair contract and let's make this relationship permanent. I wish more players were like him.
Altuve isn’t getting peanuts… he’s one of the highest paid infielders in baseball. And part of why Bregman’s struggling to secure offers right now is because he did what Altuve did in terms of agreeing to an early extension that allowed the Astros to get 2 of his original FA years at 30 million/year.
That's where we disagree. I think he is worth 7 /$200M* for his age 31-37 seasons - to the Astros but not necessarily to other teams. I think his off the field attributes make up the difference. * I'm not saying I would overpay or bid against myself, but I would not tell him to kick rocks if he had a 7/$200M and wanted me to match it. Let's say, Crane extends the deal to: 6/$150M + player option of $11M w/ $6M buyout. If I look at your values, the reason you do it is because: Bringing back Bregman makes the team better. I don't think this can be debated for 2025-2027 and there is a good argument for future seasons and overall contract. As you Said, he's likely still playable at 37. You were willing to pay $150 guarantee but settled on $156 plus a very small chance of another $5M at the end. This is a max of 7% more which should be acceptable in the big picture. In return for going over your max by 7%, you got $2M (8% of annual salary) extra to spend for each year of the contract. In the highly unlikely case that Alex does accept the 7th year option, you only have to pay an additional $5M but need to deal with $23M counting towards whatever the CBT level is in 2031. But it is all included in the original 7% you agreed to pay.
Exactly. It’s one thing for Carlos Correa to bet on himself with opt outs when he first hits free agency in his late twenties. A 31-year old Alex Bregman is highly unlikely to receive better offers heading into his age-32 season unless he has an MVP-caliber season.
That's why if a contract has an opt-out it needs to still need to be a high total guarantee. The only other option is if the first year is very high and the remaining 5 years are low enough to make it worth opting out. That's the opposite of what the team wants.
Agreed. I’m just saying opt outs make sense for younger elite free agents with depressed markets. They don’t make nearly as much sense for above average free agents entering their age 31-season like Bregman. He would have to turn back the clock offensively to 2019 to get the $200M he wants.
The one thing that does make sense is to give him an opt out after 2026 once the new CBA is determined. Make the first 2 years low salary. It doesn't help AAV, but makes it less likely for him to opt out unless the CBA makes it likely he gets a big contract at 33. But if he does opt out, Astros got him for 2 additional years at cheaper price.
I wish more were like Altuve, too. Gave us a fairly team friendly deal both times. He's still getting good money, but Altuve probably could have gotten more elsewhere and chose not to.
Easy solution there, front load the deal to make it $30M/yr for the 1st 5 years then the 6th is at $15M. They can even add hard to achieve bonuses on that last year so he has a chance to secure >$28.5M if he’s still the player he is now.
Signing Polanco wouldn’t preclude signing Bregman, it just makes it imperative to trade Paredes if they sign Bregman. Not ideal but doable, as there was likely already a market for Paredes leftover from last season’s trade deadline, and any teams vying for Bregman will likely be interested in Paredes (as could many other teams, including non-contenders).
I’d prefer the Astros try to sign or trade for good players. Both Verdugo and Polanco had an OPS under .700 last year and OBP’s under .300. Polanco hit .198 against RHP last year and had a .646 OPS against them. Verdugo hit .235/.282/.388 against RHP despite playing in Yankee Stadium for 81 games. Neither are significant outfield upgrades.
