Stats & JVG: How efficient were we really last season?

And we got the 10th best FG% by doing that? 10th best FG% on "off the dribble forced shots". I guess the 19 other teams should start doing that too.

In the infamous words of Kuniva:

"ARE YOU r****dED?"

 

We are talking turnovers. Most teams don't have a 7'6 guy who can basically place the ball in the hoop either. Am I r****ded? Far from it and this is why alot of you people just don't get any credit from me with your posts because you are not willing to listen to an outside opinion without trying petty insults such as that one.

Also, what was our FG% in the play-offs again?

 

Sorry that was a quote, no harm intended.

And yes, we are talking about turnovers. My point is turnovers is the player's fault, not the coach. We traded our turnovers away, we won't have that problem this year.

And, are you trying to compare 5 games in the playoffs with a 82 game season? I think one with 82 games is the better indicator.

I am not willing to listen to an outside opinion? What do you think me and Houkom have been doing for the last 5 pages on this thread? Respectfully debating. I don't necissarily agree with everything he says, but he presents logical points, which i try to use my logic to debunk. As for your points.........



In the infamous words of Kuniva:

"ARE YOU r****dED?"

 

Those "5 playoff games" are the difference between going onto the next round or taking an early vacation. Why shouldn't I compare them? Defense is also played alot tighter in the play-offs then a regular season and to have a succesful playoff team, you must have consistant scoring not just the hard nosed defense and we were really struggling to score. Without Francis' big play we would have been really struggling.

If you would like to win all 82 regular season games and go out in the first round of the playoffs, then the only words I've got for you are the infamous ones from you main man Kuniva

Traded away our turnovers? Yes, players cause turnovers. But with JVG's offense last year, it wasn't ONLY the plays fault. Players were forced to create where they aren't comfortable which also causes turnovers.

 

Very nice post which, this time, comfirms everything that i have been saying, not to brag.

Your earlier analysis had the Rockets Offensive Efficiency at 10th, which according to what i have been saying is too high. Now your new analysis proves me right, Rockets are 23rd in Offense. Your conclusion, that this proves JVG can't coach offense, is way off though.

Through out this whole thread, what i have been stating are:

1. JVG can coach offense.

2. Our offense(plays, Xs and Os) last year was efficient. This is proven by our FG%. We were 10th last year in eFG%.

3. Our overall offensive efficiency is bad because of the Turnovers. This is proven by your newly devised data- 23rd int eh league.

Combine points 2 and 3 and you will see that JVG has drawn up an offense that works and can get us high percentage baskets(seen by our overall FG%) but the overall efficiency of our offense is very low due to the large number of turnovers.

Once these turnovers are gotten rid of, the true efficiency of our offense will show. Like Houkom has stated, with TOs held constant, we are 9th overall. This implies that if we have a normal level of tunovers next year, 13-14, we will have the 9th most efficeint offense, instead of the now 23rd. Couple that with our 2nd or 3rd best defense, and we should be one of the best teams in the league. Which is what i said in the first place! But its nice that Houkom now has statistics to back me up.

 

Miggidy Markell,

Francis was causing the same turnovers (3.97, 3.31, 3.88, 3.69) under RUDY. So, "being forced to create where they aren't comfortable" is wrong!

What you are trying to point out, I think, is Francis's lower PPG production (21ppg to 16ppg). Which JVG's offensive system DID have a direct effect on. But all JVG was trying to do was get him to play under control and within the team concept. This is not "being forced" This was necessary in Francis's case, because we know what happens when we play Francis under the Rudy system; Yao would get less shots. Sure, SF would enjoy better individual offense output by letting him go free-style. But either way you cut it, JVG's slow down system or Rudy wild and woolly. It doesn't matter. Since Francis turnovers were still the root cause for a lot of our sloppy offense.

This will change this year. Since we traded away our turnovers.

 

You need to check this stat at the end of THIS season. You'll be surpised that "poor offense" will be confirmed for 2003-2004. But not for 2004-2005.

Hmmm, wonder why?

There's still a problem with those years too. Francis was still on the team and allowed to run wild under Rudy.

A bit better PPG, 4 more pts for Francis ppg, but same turnovers rates. And no Yao to "not pass the ball to" in the 01-02 season. Strange. Because Francis has trouble uniting the team with Yao or w/out. It really doesn't matter. Since the common denominator was still our turnover PG.

And Houkom...what's funny is that Tyler and I really don't have to convince anybody after the seasons starts. Since the proof will be by the way the team plays. And last years stats, two years ago stats, or five year ago stats will not mean much anymore.

You'll just hear a bunch of fans saying, "Sigh...thank God we don't have that little turnover machine anymore. Glad that Orlando has the problem."

 

Yes trade away our turnovers. Steve and Cat has ALWAYS been turnover prone guards, regardless of whether it was JVG's offense or Rudy's.

Mark my words, we WILL be less turnover-prone this year, which will catapult our Offensive Efficiency. And to further illustrate how the turnovers were our Guards' fault, not JVG's- the Magic will be one of the most turnover prone teams in the league this season.

We gave our turnovers to them.

 

Prediction: We'll still have problems with turnovers this season, not as bad, but something like 14.5+ to 15.0 give or take a few decimals, need some more talent to get to the elite level in that department. Won't be as big of a problem, but lets not act like trading Francis magically makes the TOs disappear, Yao is turnover prone, Howard is too, Jackson and Taylor can turnover the ball too. Tracy should be a bright spot though, he'll be the main reason why we should be pretty average in turnovers per game, but 13-14? I doubt it.

 

JumpMan, "turnover prone" doesn't mean that the players we are talking about *never* turn the ball over. It means that that player has a propensity/tendecy to turnover the ball a lot. This is especially crucial if the player we are talking about is a PG! It's his job to keep the team running smoothly. Not be the root cause of sloppiness.

Yao, JJ, Taylor and Howard do NOT turn the ball over very much (all of them under 2.6, three of which cause less than 2.0). Now, it's true that we will not magically reach 13 TOPG. That requires more time and CHEMISTRY! Championship caliber teams reach the magical 13 TOPG mark. That takes some time. The main issue is that at least we have the players that can attain that low turnover mark. We do.

With Francis on our team, that mark would never be reached no matter how much time the players had together.

 

An interesting stat that i want to know is, how low our turnovers has to be for us to be 10th in offensive efficiency, with everything else held constant.

So the 10th in offensive efficiency is Portland at 41.646%.... um...

Houkom, the rest of the math is all yours.

 

Wow! I actually agree with that!

It's important to note that Rudy's later teams had Hakeem (and Barkley). And there was a shift gradually away from him to Francis/Mobley as time went on. Rudy had to deal with this. This might explain a slight increase in TO rate and decrease in offensive FG%.

I've also thought of Rudy a a good defensive coach. Not great. What made the Rockets defense great? Hakeem. Plain and simple. Once he left, our defense went with
him. Rudy could NOT get Francis and Mobley to play defense to save their lives.

JVG changed this. And actually made defensive changes for the WHOLE team, not just one or two players. And JVG doesn't have a Hakeem to do this with. Although, Yao does offer a whole lot of help defense in the paint (affecting lay-ups/dunks, challenging shots, and adding shot blocking).

 

Well only Shaq turned the ball over more last season at the center position, and according to most on here Yao didn't even get enough touches. Juwon Howard as long as he's kept as the third option should keep his turnovers down, but then again Jackson was the fourth last year and still averaged over 2 a game, you can't find another SF who was the fourth option and turned the ball over as much. You're right man 13 per game is reserved for championchip caliber teams, like the Magic last season.

The number one thing that matters is offensive TALENT not chemistry and time, although you do need those two you could play together for years and still be average if you don't have talent in bunches which the Rockets don't have right now.

 

Ask Houkom, I'm not really into picking apart stats like that, although I do like the +/- stats for individual players.

 

I am sure this is a mistake to jump in so late but two things stand out to me,

One, SF had a lot of turnovers that were not classivied as turnovers. I'm talking about poor shot selection that led to an opponents fast break. A real back breaker, but only shows up as a missed shot on the stat sheet.

Two, if you are looking for a statistic that shows the combined effect of offensive and defensive "efficnecy", why don't you just use the existing wins and losses.

 

While is true that Yao had some problems holding the ball. He still kept his turnovers down. This will become less and less a problem because Yao IMPROVES each year. Touches are not necessarily a mandate for a huge increased turnovers. The player themselves still has to make decisions. And with those extra touches, as long as they *know* their limitations, make good decisions, the turnovers will say low. You just don't take a static statistic like "touches" add it to the player, and then say, extra turnovers (NO BALL FOR YOU!). You have to take into account what that player will DO with those extra touches. Will Yao extend himself beyond his limits? I don't see that happing. Not enough that will matter. The benefits of limiting Yao's touches would be too detrimental for the team offensively. This is regardless if his TO go up a bit (I say, a bit). It's a give and take. Lets just make sure that JJ never becomes the 1st option!

As far as 13 TO per game and the Magic. They were able to achieve that because of the chemistry and players on that team: McGrady, Lue and Howard (good for us!). And that should be an indicator of how important the right players have on ones team. I did not say THEY WERE a championship team. But what championship teams do have in common is that they do not turn the ball over 16-18 times, like the Rox did last year.

So, with that said, I was agreeing that we will need *some* time to jell and gain chemstry as other teams have done; with the right mix of players.

You said "the most important thing is offensive TALENT?" Yep. We have that. McGrady/Yao/JJ....Now, that doesn't mean that we can't add new players. But McGrady/Yao are the core of this team. Without them, we go nowhere.

I'm hoping we acquire a better PG in the next two yeras to replace Ward/Lue.

 

DS,

Yao has weak hands (are they small?), still bobbles the ball, gets it stripped, not so sure if he gets under 2.5 this season, more than likely around 2.8 because he should be playing a few more minutes per game.

What happened to time? That was Howard's first year there, Lue's too, I think. How can the worst team in the league have chemistry anyway? And how can a playoff team in the West not have any? The Rockets didn't turn the ball over 16 times a game, much less 18.

Is Tracy, Yao, Jackson, Howard as strong as Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Barry? Garnett, Cassell, Spreewell, Wally? Webber, Bibby, Stojakovic, Miller? Dirk, Finley, Stackhouse, Terry? Carmelo, Martin, Miller? Nash, Stoudamire, Marion, Richardson? Pau and the rest of the insane depth on Memphis? I keep Tracy and Yao and I would take the third and fourth best players on every one of the other elite West teams. We have more talent than last season, but then again more than half the NBA could of said that last season, so it's not that hard.

Still say we don't get under 14.5 TOs a game, or score more than 93-94 points per game, we still have to rely on the defense first, just not as much as we did last season.

 

If Yao manages to get 20/10, and TO the ball over 2.8 times per game. I think you can *live* witht that. Since there will be so many other factors that will allow us to affect that every so important win column. If he manages 2.5. Then, all the better. Not sure why you are even making such a big deal about those minute changes. Yao still shoots 50%+ and this will probably improve as our entry passes will be better. Plus a tandum of McGrady to boot.

By the way...Yao's hands are not small. He has very long fingers, but slightly narrow palms. Now, this doesn't mean that it's narrow compared to you and I. But it's realtive to being able to palm the ball. His hands were weak last year. But lets see if his strength training will help. The other issue regarding getting the ball stripped was that Yao would always bring the ball down so the guard could steal it. That's just bad technique.

If OUR TEAM starts slowly, and then improves, then that will be your time. There will always be some that want the team to win a chamioship this year (the impatient ones). Time and chemstry is important when you are trying to build a championship. I hope you want that.

In regards to Orlando. If you want to point out Lue and Howard's addition to Orlando last year and then saying they did not having "bad" chemistry. Then, you are just proving my point how getting the right players matter. And how Francis, no matter how much *time* we had with him, wouldn't have resulted in better chemstry or less TOs. In the end, if you want to have a championship team, you have to have both: the players, then build that chemstry from there...it's a progression.

And yes. You're right. It wasn't 18 TOPG. It was 15.8 Reg, and 16.8 Play-offs. Blah...

We are trying to build TEAM. Yes, I know that individual talent matters (we have Yao/Mcgrady). And depth too. But we must first solidify our core team first, then get them to play together! Fine tuning comes next...trades, FA, etc...

The team is more than the sum of its parts. Yes, we do need a better PG. Sure. But one step at a time.

I mean, if you can help us sign the 3rd and 4th best players on our team. By all means. Do it.

We will. I don't have to convince you. You'll see it with your own eyes.

But if our season starts out with 14.9, please don't complain without letting the season finish out. That's when that "time and chemistry" thing comes into play. And if we end up with 14.0 (or less) at the end of the season, I'd say that's just what JVG ordered.

And we will make the playoffs. Then, we watch what kind of damage we can do there. Again, one step at a time.