Here’s one that’s kind of off the wall: Astros get: SP Dylan Cease Padres get: C Victor Caratini OF Chas McCormick RP Ryan Pressly SP Spencer Arrighetti P Anderson Brito $5M The Padres address all of their holes (C, LF) without adding any payroll. They get a good SP under long term control to replace Cease. Astros get a ToR SP without giving up any of their top 10 prospects or adding any payroll; in fact the net of this would be Houston freeing up ~$5M. Of course this only works if Houston then figures out a way to add a good OF (either via trade or by Crane spending more money).
So, The Astros get a TOR SP for 1 year being paid final arbitration season salary then lose him to FA. Astros give up: 5 years of a lesser SP who has TOR potential but is currently a BOR guy. A good and correctly priced backup catcher who will be a FA after the season. An OF with the floor of a 4th OF with 2 years of control. A good but no longer great leverage reliever who is very overpriced and a FA after the season. A high ceiling but also very low floor pitching prospect who still has several hurdles to "make it" $5M Astros are marginally better at SP in 2025 Astros get $5M to spend. How much better is the OF they get for $5M than Chas? Astros are significantly worse at RP Astros are likely not worse off at C but lose insurance in case of injury. Astros are SIGNIFICANTLY worse off 2026+ losing 2 TOR SP and having 1 less option to fill that role. In my mind, the only way this makes sense is if: They go all in for 2025 and then trade away guys like Pena and Bryan Abreu next offseason to do a rebuild. Or They then trade Framber for a package that fills several holes cheaper and with more years of control.
Marlins need to add just over $21M in CBT payroll to qualify for their $70M revenue sharing income. Rafael Montero, Shay Whitcomb, Pedro Leon and Jose Fleury for Jesus Sanchez. Marlins add $7M in payroll and get 2 potential starting outfielders and a SP prospect. Astros add a LH corner OF and save $7M Whitcomb and Leon don't have anything left to prove in AAA but don't look to be in Houston's plans.
I think it's a flip of the coin whether arrighetti or cease is better this year. No way I do that deal.
I don’t buy the idea of Arrighetti potentially being better than Cease (other than potential iniuries for Cease), but I do think it’s very reasonable to consider my hypothetical an overpay. I got the idea from the MLBTR article saying the Padres were talking to Minnesota about Cease and Christian Vasquez in a deal, and that SD needed C and OF help. But I realized there’s no way San Diego is trading Cease for just McCormick and Caratini without getting a quality affordable long term piece back in return. I guess it’s possible you could swap Arrighetti out for somebody like Blubaugh or Ullola but I doubt they’d accept it.
For me, Cease for Arrighetti straight up is a no. I'm not one to say I think Arrighetti has even a chance to be better than Cease in 2025, but there is an almost certainty that he will outperform him by a significant amount over the next 5 seasons, and will have at least 1 season better than Cease's 2025. The Astros would need to replace both Cease and Framber in 2026 without Arrighetti. I would rather have to replace just Framber's production with Arrighetti available to help do it.
Post-Bregman-signing hypothetical: Red Sox get: 2B Isaac Paredes CF Jake Meyers RP Forrest Whitley Astros get: RF Wilyer Abreu LF Masataka Yoshida $21M ($7M/yr 2025-2027) Astros lineup: 2B Altuve 3B Bregman DH Alvarez 1B Walker C Diaz RF Abreu LF Yoshida CF McCormick SS Pena Bench: Dubon, Salazar, Trammell, Singleton
Yikes !! You just turned an OF that can't hit RHP into one that can't hit LHP. If you are going to bring in Yoshida and Abreu, then Trammell becomes expendable and Meyers becomes as valuable as gold - for his ability to hit LHP AND his ability to catch balls in the LF gap (but you give him away in the deal)
Yikes!!!!! Pfffffffffft. Dubon can hit lefties and play OF. And McCormick and Pena mash lefties so the need for another OF to hit LHP well is minimized.
Appreciate the response and you are right that Dubon and Chas can hit lefties (until last year - let's expect a rebound from both) and Pena's production vs LHP also helps. And of course RH are 70% of pitchers, so it's an improvement just because of that. I like both of those guys individually but think getting both takes away opportunities from a rookie. I think its important for 2026-2030+ that someone like Dezenzo or Leon can get 300+ PAs and establish himself as a legitimate MLBer. I would like a Dezenzo-Chas-Abreu or Yoshida-Chas-Leon outfield. But I have more faith in Dezenzo than Leon.
He can be traded immediately because they traded for him. Walker can't he traded until June because he was signed as a FA
I was listening to MLB Radio on Sirius XM this evening. I caught the tail end of the conversation about Bregman potentially re-signing with the Astros so I don’t want to misquote what was said by Jim Bowden or whoever was talking…. Anyways, they were suggesting that if Bregman were to be re-signed that Paredes and/or Framber could instantly be on the block and that teams like the Orioles and Giants would be interested in Framber and Paredes would have suitors with both NY teams and Toronto.
I don’t see any way Houston can shop Framber if Garcia and McCullers are gonna be out until after the season starts. That would be an extreme risk. But if it happens it would be a sign Houston REALLY has faith in their young controllable pitching. I could definitely see them shopping Paredes but they tried to trade for him so long it would really surprise me.
Some Paredes hypotheticals: Astros get: IF/OF Jeff McNeil OF/IF Jett Williams OF Drew Gilbert $12M Mets get: IF Isaac Paredes OF Jake Meyers Astros get: IF/OF Oswaldo Cabrera IF Roderick Arias P Clayton Beeter Yankees get: IF Isaac Paredes Astros get: OF George Springer P Jake Bloss OF Joey Loperfido $30M Blue Jays get: IF Isaac Paredes OF Taylor Trammell P Bennett Sousa
