I think it's a good question to ask, and a discussion worth having. I know the kneejerk reaction is to bring up Sengun vs Bruno Fernando but that's not the right way to look at this. Sengun is a very good player with high trade value and we're paying him $35 mil a year. So the question is would we be better with some rim running defensive center that is also worth $35m? This would be someone like Bam Adebayo? Or, since he is probably not available, would we be better off with a "scrap heap" defensive rim running center for a few million, and then use the remaining ~$30m on an upgrade at a different position? I don't know exactly what this looks like or what trade is available for Sengun. But this isn't a re-run of "Sengun or Bruno Fernando." There's a lot more to it this time around.
It is a valid question, just not by DD. That's the reaction he gets. As far as the other discussion goes, I think it is a very early discussion anyway. Sengun and the current core will get its playoff run and then we can discuss the alternatives.
I'm going to press X to doubt that the Rockets are anywhere remotely close to trading a guy they just gave a 5 year/$185M extension. I think it would take a couple of first round bounces in a row in the playoffs where he was clearly the weak link for them to even start thinking about it.
Yeah but we're on a message board designed for bored dudes to discuss absurd hypotheticals even if the org isn't even considering it
Just pause the message board till summer of 26. I don't think it's a good idea to mess with the young core unless someone truly meaningful comes available till we give them 2 playoffs (aka not booker, durant, fox (lol) types)
+/- is a lineup stat, not an individual stat. If you would have been in the closing lineup with Michael Jordan, then you would have had a great +/- in the clutch. The stat itself doesn't tell you anything about an individual players performance.
lol hes literarlly cost us 3 games from the FT line this year - Alpi and CLUTCH doesnt mix at this time
Every fan base put their players under the microscope. Critiquing is fine. But it's very very divergent on how other fanbases view our players right now. The non rocket fans, but basketball non-casuals still generally look very favorably on our pieces, including Sengun. Even the negative views around the league on Dillon and Green has quieted somewhat. Flipping the coin, positively viewed players: say a Maxey. If you put him under a microscope, I can start point out his dip in efficiency this year. His defense, his height. His contract, while not negative takes up a huge % of the cap. If he is a star, why can't he lift Philly's bad record more inspite of Embid/George. Their fans understandably made peace that he likely won't be an all star this year. Doesn't mean he's a bad NBA player, no one is perfect. And should 76ers trade Maxey: of course not. If a microscope zoom far enough, then all the imperfections show. Green/Sengun just got extended. Can poop on them if they play badly, but can we at least hold the trade talk until summer. Just enjoy the #2 standing in the west. There's no guarantee we'll be back here next season.
His +/- in the clutch is the best in the league. That of the other Rockets is very good, but worse. So your attempt at more anti-Sengun propaganda is noted, but unsuccessful. He is the Michael Jordan in your analogy.
The first two claims are true. The 3rd one has a lot of caveats coming with it. It is a terrible individual stat for non-starters. For starters who play consistent minutes, it shows you their potential to be part of the current results. For example you can’t claim Sengun sucks at defense because he is part of a great defense. It doesn’t tell you the individual performance but normally you would think they are correlated. If you want to claim the team best +/- isn’t correlated to his individual performance, you need to have a reasonable explanation for it. You can’t just dismiss it. Who was the Michael Jordan that helped him achieve that? And as I will explain below clutch stats are not dependable anyway. But that’s a different thing. the clutch stats are extremely volatile because they depend on so many factors. I wouldn’t put too much meaning into it. I didn’t check the stats but I don’t think there is any player who is consistently good or even consistently positive +/- over the years. Still it is better to have positive and team best rather than the other way around and you cannot dismiss it because it is a lineup stat unless you have reasonable explanation.
Sengun is awesomely versatile and can play a major role on a championship team, but he can be much better if he improves his FT%, 3P%, and finishing around the basket. These are areas he can improve. His defense is, I think, already at its highest potential, and that is his biggest weakness, which will likely continue to be so.
Given the origins of this front office coming from the analytics house Morey built, they likely have context to what Alpi shoots on qty and some point of view on whether those shots would be better taken by someone else but similar to Jokic on the list - the individual shooting numbers don’t tell the full picture of his importance to the offense - it’s just an area for improvement. I’ll fully cop to being skeptical of the long term viability of investment in Sengun as our foundational piece if we are serious about competing for titles unless there is some real growth in his ability to be a 3 level scorer but that doesn’t take away the fact that Sengun can STILL be a phenomenal player and an all star despite that. He is a solid defender now, one of the best post scorers in the league, a solid rebounder, and an elite passing big capable of playmaking for others which makes him a borderline all star now.
Sengun is not a perfect player but neither was Robert Horry Sengun brings more positives and he’s relatively healthy which is the most important part of the long season
Jabari may end up a good complement to him AND Our current starting lineup is also doing fine. I just wonder down the line if there is a center that we could pair with him that hits the three ball and allows Alpi to be the power forward for a bit.
Like a prime version of Brook Lopez? I suggested finding someone like that through the draft in the next couple of seasons to pair with Alpi and make him a hybrid forward/center before but people didn't like that idea.
The Clippers are #4 in defensive efficiency, so does that show that Harden is a good defensive player? Does Memphis at #5 mean that Ja is a good defender? Of course not, just like really good offensive can have weak offensive players in their lineup, defenses can too. What clutch criteria are you using? Typically, it's 4th quarter, game within 5 pts and the last 5, 3 or 2 minutes of the quarter. By any of those criteria, he's nowhere close to league leader. Using 5 minutes, he's +1.0. For 3 minutes, he's +1.3 and for 2 min, he's +0.7. Here's my issue with using +/- is that people try to use it to show that a player is good or bad or is better than someone else, and it doesn't show that. You're here trying to claim that a +/- (still not sure where your getting it) shows that Sengun is a good defender. Yet, the other night Sengun was what, -25? So, in that case the story was it was caused by the players who are on the court with him not playing well. Kinda funny that you think I'm "anti-Sengun" even though I've repeatedly said that he's a very good player and that any team would love to have him. He's just not a superstar as you believe. Even you has to admit that his offense has been bad this year. You can't really argue with that. Of the 30 starting centers in the NBA, 26 of them have a TS% above 57.4%TS. The 4 below that are all below 55% and Sengun is at 54%. The two starting centers that have been less efficient than Sengun are Sarr, who has very little offense and Bam who's been awful on offense this year. I get it, he's your guy. That's great, but you have to be realistic. We've all hammered Jalen Green, deservedly so, for being inefficient but right at the half way point, Sengun's efficiency is just behind Green's from last year. If we're going to criticize one guy for being inefficient, then we need to do it for everyone. The unfortunate fact is that most of our rotation is extremely inefficient.
I think you’re adding up atw and myself and making up one poster. I don’t get the clutch numbers, I never posted them and I don’t really care for them as I explained in the post you replied to. I just pointed out that although your general statement about +/- is correct, there are some nuances to it. And I also didn’t think you are anti Sengun. and I don’t believe he is a superstar. These are difficulties I have to live with my username I guess. As for your harden remark, it doesn’t show harden is a good defender but it shows that a smart coach can have a good defense with harden on the floor. And that says something for the player. for most of your comments about offense, I think you are addressing atw. Scoring and efficiency wise he is well below expectations or he is bad, however you want to put it. He is still the player who makes the offense run smoothly though, except maybe when green takes over. He is still contributing a lot on offense if you want to see the full part of the glass. But he will not b worth the money with that efficiency.
Harden has been a good post defender for a long time. Using whatever nba.com is using, and looking at minimum 20 games played in the clutch, across the league. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/clutch-traditional?CF=GP*GE*20&dir=A&sort=PLUS_MINUS Where were you when this happened? You keep conveniently ignoring his other contributions than shooting. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle?TeamID=1610612745&dir=D&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS Sengun contests by far the most shots on the Rockets. He provides most screen assists and generates most screen assist points (per minute, Steven Adams is even better - no other player remotely comes close). He is in the top 4 in deflections and loose balls recovered (with Fred, Tari, Amen). He is second behind Tate in charges drawn. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/box-outs?dir=D&sort=BOX_OUTS He is 7th in the NBA in box outs, leading the Rockets (again, Steven Adams even better per minute, no other Rocket comes close). Sengun is an "all around player". He's the guy who, over the last 1 1/2 seasons, led our team in points, rebounds, 2nd in assists, up there in steals and blocks, most contested shots, most box outs, most screen assists, up there in deflections and loose balls recovered, best player in the clutch, best on/off, best net rating.
Unfortunately, there are no available double team stats anymore to us mere mortals (even if paying), but Udoka said last season that Sengun is one of the top 3 doubled players in the league, and here, the famous "eye test" seems to confirm that. Almost every team's game plan against the Rockets is to try and stop Sengun, and let the other guys beat you. That "gravity" is there, even if someone like @aelliott prefers to ignore it.
