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Another injury signals our destiny: is it realistic to bench Amen ever again?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Mathloom, Jan 7, 2025.

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Who sits if Brooks/Amen are playing well when Jabari returns?

  1. 38%-shooting Brooks

  2. Budding Star Amen

  3. 6'11 Jabari who was hitting 40% of his 3's and playing really good defense

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. Kevooooo

    Kevooooo Member

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    Yes, because as great as Amen looks, he still is severely limited in his scoring and creating ability at this stage of his career and Sengun's offensive talents are needed more. So with that, you need Jabari more than you need Amen. Both because of how he defends next to Sengun, but, probably more importantly, because Sengun needs more than 1 actual "shooter" to kick out to. Games Jabari is our or is sitting, they collapse on Sengun with more confidence knowing our shooters are limited.
     
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  2. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    I mean, that's one possibility.

    However if Amen breaks out right now averaging 20ppg and we win more with him than with Jabari starting at the same position, then what's the point of hypothetical exercises about shot balance? We have a direct comparison and for example the lineup with Amen flat out outperforms the other.

    I can't fathom how a coach then shelves that just because theoretically it should be better with Jabari? But what if it's just not? There's an outlier variable in the model which is almost unlike any other variable in it's history (most athletic player in history + most athletic wing duo in history). If you believe in these models you should be riveted right now that there's a variable which can change historical patterns.

    Nothing's guaranteed but any stat nerd is watching that tried and tested model right now and Amen has already bent it. This is a unique moment imo. That's what intended to ask in this thread at least. Of course if it's just any non-shooter vs Jabari, it's a standard call.
     
  3. Kevooooo

    Kevooooo Member

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    Extremely small sample size. And the opponents that those lineups perform well against matters. To clarify, there may be a team at the bottom of the standings that matches up better with us when it's Amen>Jabari. That doesn't mean we should tailor our lineups because they perform better against opponents we won't face in serious, meaningful games.

    Against top tier teams, being a good defender and a good shooter might be more valuable than just being a good defender.

    It's almost impossible to seriously answer this question when Jabari has been out so few games --AND Amen was suspended.

    Also, you can't definitively attribute improvement solely to Amen's insertion into the starting lineup. Correlation is not causation. While he may be a significant factor in our hypothetical long term improvement, it could also just be that as we hit mid season, the team and every other player is simultaneously improving.

    I'm not trying to avoid your hypothetical. I just can't agree with the general -- and simple -- hypothetical of "Amen plays well, we have to sit Jabari" without knowing all of the mitigating circumstances.

    Now if you want to say "Amen starts hitting threes at 30+ percent and more than 3 attempts a game, the team wins at a better rate than first third of the season, and everyone else is playing well within the starting lineup," well that's more detailed and okay, sit Jabari because Amen is now doing what Jabari can do and better (play high level defense AND hit threes).

    Side note, Amen is already a better cutter than Jabari but SOME of that is because he's SUCH a bad shooter that guys often turn their heads and help off him and he uses that to his advantage. Jabari is a known shooter and his man doesn't sag off as much, prohibiting him the chance to cut as easy -- he's also in different positions than Amen who is often left in the corner more often than Jabari.
     
  4. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Bro as I'm writing this I'm thinking I hope he doesn't think I'm being dismissive, so please don't take it that way:

    I think it's fair to say that coincidentally your entire post is extremely dependent on that first sentence (sample size) right?

    But that's the only sample brother. There's going to be a 30 game sample with Jabari and a 20 game sample with Amen starting. Everything else is hypothetical. Are you really going to go with a theory over the actual fact that one lineup is better against more difficult opponents than earlier in the season (this our toughest month Jabari will miss)?

    We can talk about sample and correlation but all that applies to Jabari too then. We don't know how much Jabari had to do with the winning since it's only a 2-month sample right? That wouldn't be fair to say. He just started ten more games than Amen in this scenario.

    I also want to stress: I swear I'm a bigger proponent of 3's than you. I believe the league should take more 3's - it's still not optimized. You can ask the biggest Amen fan on the board how long I've been saying "but his jumper". I get it. That was the initial calculation. And no I don't believe his jumper will improve materially this season again.

    But I'm telling you as 3pt lover to 3pt lover: sometimes a guy comes along who breaks the model. This is different Kevoooo. It's Andrei Kirilenko but as fast as Derrick Rose and with the on-court unselfishness of Jesus Christ lol. Anyways, let the games do the talking I guess, if we'll accept their data.
     
  5. Francis3422

    Francis3422 Member

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    You are watching these games and coming away from them thinking that Amen is offensively challenged?

    This guy can generate his own shot almost whenever he wants near the rim And seems to finish just as effectively as Sengun.
     
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  6. Kevooooo

    Kevooooo Member

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    I don't disagree with you that Amen is different. And very likely could be that guy. But I don't think that replaces TODAY what Jabari does. And when I said small sample size, I wasn't referring to the ultimate sample size of total games Jabari is out -- just the games we've had so far is too small to even consider the question. 10 games you'd at least be able to entertain the thought.

    And the sample size of the games we've seen them both play tell us that Jabari is an important part of the offense with Sengun, in particular. So, this season, do we want to focus on maximizing Amen? Or maximizing Sengun? I think the latter.
     
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  7. Kevooooo

    Kevooooo Member

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    I t think his offense is significantly limited. He can go down hill and he can cut well (particularly because his man often ignores him).

    But he doesn't have the best handles or ability to create unique shots. He just drives hard and is so athletic and agile that he can get decent looks from 4-5 feet.

    Outside of fast breaks, Amen scores mostly from action.

    Edit: his offensive skillset is limited. He does 2 things on offense really well.
     
  8. Castian Crew

    Castian Crew Member

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    Amen in the starting lineup shows how much Jabari's hesitant mentality actually does hurt this team.

    Jabari off the bench for the rest of this year or trade him.
     
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  9. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    I'll just say, it's not about replacing Jabari. It's bigger than that. It's about going from a 2-star-player mentality to a 3-star-player mentality. The entire offense would change. That role that Jabari was playing - off ball 3&D guarding a size that others can't guard - would effectively be replaced by FVV now, not Amen. Amen would only replace Jabari's rebounding and stocks. Which leaves man defense - something FVV is better than Jabari at. we also now in this set up now have 5 more assists than we would with Jabari. We haven't lost any rebounding.

    And regarding the sample size so far, I don't think anyone is taking that into consideration. We're just asking as a fun exercise, let's say we are post-event and Amen has outplayed Jabari with the starters for roughly the same amount of games. Everyone who's answering that question also believe we should play the games - that's not a specific or unique opinion in my humble opinion.

    Honestly brother from what I've seen this season, I've decided there are 2 sets: FVV and Sengun + Amen and Green. Right now the offense is as optimized as possible for FVV Sengun, 100% optimized given our resources. I believe it's 10% optimized for guys who need space and speed and verticality. I believe we should shift to a 50-50 model because it's obvious Sengun needs help - a sacrifice has to be made, when he's off or exhausted Sengun has to act as the Draymond for Amen/Green in a fast paced offense. Very important: aside from rebounding, we have the worst scoring efficiency in the NBA. So the idea that there's some perfect thing working that is low risk and we shouldn't introduce a risky idea is a bit out of context.

    Let's say it doesn't go well. What's going to happen? We're going to be bottom 5 in scoring efficiency and our rebounding will be historically elite in any system and raise us 10-12 spots. We'd be exactly where we are now with 3-4 core players empowered rather than one. That's the worst case scenario imo in the event Amen starts and does well.
     
  10. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Stop fighting it.
     
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  11. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I agree with your first statement but disagree with the second.

    Ideally, Amen will be able to replace FVV in the starting lineup next year.
     
  12. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    The Cobra Twins are killing it in the starting lineup. Doesn't have the same ring to it, I know, but this is what's fueling us right now especially with injuries. Do we have the fastest wing duo in NBA history? Can you think of any comparable examples?

    FVV and Sengun outletting quickly to Amen and Jalen creates such a lightning quick fast break I've never seen anything like it. They say Derrick Rose pre-injury was clocking 20mph on a fast break with the ball and De'Aron Fox did 18mph in a game at least one time. I think that's the kind of speed we're seeing. This team strikes like a snake on the fast break. Those are really high efficiency attempts and it's great to have that helping us.

    Can we really veer away from this? Can we afford to? What is the point of Dillon Brooks who for all the great things he's doing for us so consistently - is absolutely terrible on the break and my eye test tells me his shooting gets worse when we play faster. I think he does his best work in that slow kick-out game off Sengun/FVV.

    I hope Udoka is willing to have the difficult conversation with Brooks about being replaced by Jabari. We CAN use a guy who was helping guard the interior and grabbing rebounds better. Similar shooter overall in terms of how much the defense respects them. The best wing player is going to be guarded by Amen. Jabari is better at guarding bigger PF's than Brooks imo.

    If Brooks is not shooting at that awesome 38% level, it will be hard to justify starting him. For all his culture-setting, I'm willing to let Amen do everything he does including the culture setting on defense. He might be flat out a better defender and better player as a starter. It's the final tweak this team needs. Well, until we get to who wins FVV's spot.
     
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  13. PatBev

    PatBev Member
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    I'd rather ride into the playoffs with Amen, Cam, Adams coming off the bench while we can. It will help us more in the post season

    Brooks, Cam, Adams doesn't have the same punch to it

    Let Amen be a starter from the jump next season
     
  14. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member
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    This conversation is not needed. The argument is not who will sit between Amen and Jabari, it is who will sit between Jabari and Brooks. Amen will be starting the rest of the year. Hell, even statistically he is beating both in every category other than 3 pt%. The fact that we are exploding on offense and Amen is averaging more points than Jabari makes the whole "Sengun can't play with Amen" stuff moot. We also have added another spot up shooter in FVV and unleashed Jalen. Even Ime isn't so stubborn that he will bench Amen again. FVV being off ball at least 2/3 of the time is the secret sauce to making this offense work.
     
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  15. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Yup that's what I've been saying since the start of the season. Brooks is the odd man out but he has earned his status with his 3PT shooting this season so change had to wait a while. I think it's all taking place organically but Ime can't wait for injuries too do his job for him. He has to confront it and take a leadership role in difficult conversations.
     
  16. RocketsFido

    RocketsFido Member

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    I'd rather bench Jabari than sit Brooks. People underestimate what Brooks brings to our starting lineup.

    I'm more in favor of letting FVV come off the bench and let Jabari start with Amen.

    I want to see what they can do in the 2nd half of the season just as a preview if we decline FVV's contract this summer.

    The only problem is if Ime will allow that since he loves FVV so much. I get it tho, FVV brings a lot of stability to the starters. Say what you will about his terrible shooting this year but he still hits timely shots every now and then and his defense is nothing to scoff at. He is very pesky and smart defender. You see his hands are very active, alot more so than Reed's (obviously he's a rookie). This skillset keeps FVV in the league because he can poke away balls all the time.

    It's very likely we will get a lotto pick this year with the Suns pick.. if it lands outside top 4, we will likely pick a big. If it lands in top 4, it's either Flagg or it will be a point guard. There are multiple 6'6~ point guards this year in the draft. I'm sure many fans are already salivating at the idea of drafting Dylan Harper, who looks like an absolute stud at 6'6, 215lbs look NBA ready.
     
  17. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Listen to Udoka. The balance is much better with multiple playmakers. Doesn't sound like we're going to bench Amen.
     
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  18. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    Page 2 Jating was finger licking good!

    Jalen has raised his 3pt shot by 3% points in 10 days since the high fiving -- LOL

    To the committed Jater I implore you please keep jating. You've gone this far why turn back? Resist fully and keep the intergalactic time/space continuum working as expected.
     
  19. jayhow92

    jayhow92 Member

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    He’s just too good to not start. Tough decisions to be made by Ime once everyone is healthy.
     
  20. PeppermintCandy

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    Yeah, I'm noticing this too. I think Sengun's recent struggles have to do with Smith being out. But he's still pretty damn good, despite the dip in production.

    Then again, adding Thompson to the starting lineup seems to have fueled and opened up Green's game.

    So what if replacing Smith with Thompson in the starting lineup means Sengun playing at 80% but having Green playing consistently at a star level? That's a pretty good argument for making the change permanent.
     
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