In doing the quick math on this, assuming a $170M cap in 2027-28, and a 10% increase to $187M in 2028-29 and beyond, Jalen should be able to either do a 4-year extension starting at 140% of his $36M 2027 salary with 8% raises (roughly $261M/5-years), or opt out and sign for 25% of the salary cap over 5-years ($246M/5-years). There's an interesting thing in that if he opts out in 2027 and resigns on a 25% max for a similar 2-years + 1 player option, he probably comes out slightly ahead with the money being front-loaded on an opt out and re-sign. This would be roughly 3 year earnings of $140M, and much like right now, he'd have a lot of control over where he would be traded for almost the entire duration of the contract, since he could threaten to opt out and not re-sign if he didn't like the destination (aka Jimmy Butler/Anthony Davis). Assuming that Jalen is more of a fringe All-Star rather than a true perennial All-NBA guy, the number one thing he and his agent should be trying to do to maximize his earnings over his next deal will be to be eligible for a designated super-max; this means trying to spike an All-NBA selection the season before he's eligible for an extension, which seems very possible with the 65-game criteria for end-of-year awards. A 2+1 deal in 2027 should make him extension eligible in the summer of 2028, with the exact 7 years of experience necessary for a supermax. If he doesn't make all-NBA in 2028, then he could sign yet another 2+1 extension that would allow him to bump his yearly salary to hit the 30% max in 2030, and give him the ability to opt out in 2031, when he'd have 10 years of accrued experience and be eligible for a 35% max normally at age 29! It gives up a good chunk of guaranteed money, around $120M, but frankly, on the 2+1 plan, he'd have already banked close to $240M in career earnings; it might be worth the risk. 4-Year Max Extension 2027 $36,000,000 (Last Year of Current Deal) 2028 $50,400,000 (30% of cap) 2029 $54,432,000 2030 $58,464,000 2031 $62,496,000 Total $261,792,000 Opt-Out with 5-year max deal @ 25% of cap 2027 $42,528,000 2028 $45,930,240 2029 $49,332,480 2030 $52,734,720 2031 $56,136,960 Total $246,662,400 Opt Out and extend in 2029 2027 $42,528,000 (25% of cap) 2028 $45,930,240 2029 $49,332,480 2030 $67,925,700 (New Extension, starting at 30% of cap) 2031 $73,359,756 Total $279,076,176
No man's land sitting at no 2 in the West. Nobody knows the trajectory of these players they are all in their early 20s. Saying none of them gonna be good enough to be franchise players is extremely shortsighted.
We will find out soon enough. I don’t see a franchise player at this point and usually franchise players are identifiable early in their careers. I see several players that may prove to be multiple time all stars - but I don’t see any top 15 in the league guys.
Hmmm curious on that one nook. I don't mind you doubting Jalen will become that top 15 player. Thats a fair enough assesment on everything he has shown in his young career. Just find it hard you don't see franchise talent.
I see talent- I see a lot of talent and lots of depth and athleticism. I don’t see anyone I am comfortable saying is going to be a franchise player. Could Jalen become more consistent and become a top 15 player? Possible, but I am doubtful. Same with Sengun and Thompson. I see several players that can be #2 players on an elite team but I don’t see a likely #1. The Rockets have a very good coach - lots of depth and lots of talent, very good assets in the Suns picks.. but not a #1 type player. This year has been exceptional for the Rockets. They should let this group stick together and see what happens. Perhaps Jalen averages over 25 points the rest of the season or Sengun or Amen takes a leap.
My opinion, the best team wins not the best talent. Celtics are the best example their franchise guy Tatum def didnt play like a top 15 player but they still cruised thru the playoffs and beat the Mavs pretty convincingly. GSW Curry wasnt seen as a franchise player early in his career just like Jalen and Sengun his first extension wasnt even maxxed. Wiggins was seen as a bust for the first 9 yrs of his career then he suddenly became an all star. Rox right now are good enough to get no 2 seed and they are just a bunch of 22 yr olds besides FVV and Dillon Brooks. These kids are gonna get even better in the next 3 yrs and its impossible to stop them when they all reach their prime. If we have 4 or 5 multi all stars we are destroying everyone else IMO.
We also haven't seen the new starting lineup with Jabari and Tari coming off the bench and Amen pushing the pace with the starters. Let's be real Jalen can't keep it at this level forever, but Amen and Sengun can definitely have a better second half than their first half with where they are right now in their development. Chemistry alone, it's a new lineup just 6 games I believe. Whitmore is a factor now. Kind of a 6th man scorer. Things are looking promising, regardless of schedule. Whether we have a star or not, we're built to win in the regular season at least.
Jalen Green finally got the message that nobody can get to his spots earlier than him, the burst and agility he moves around is his best skills, he just has to make the right decisions after he gets to those spots and when he shoots he has to do it with unwavering confidence like all the greats do, regardless of how good they are at it (Jalen is also not great but the separation he gets makes them practice shots so no excuse NOT to be confidence when stroking it).
The thing about being a multiple All Star is Consistency.....and Luck to be Voted IN. Jamal Murray to me is an All Star but he had his best moments in past Playoffs.....and he never really was a high scoring Regular Season guy. He is 28 and never made NBA All Stars once, should have in the Championship year! The BBall world surely took notice of several Rockets players already! The natural way to progress next is Deep in the Playoffs!!
I’m sorry, but posts like this are so dumb. Jalen is top 15 all time in 30 and 40 point games among all players before tuning 23. He may beat Tracy McGrady’s total, who started a year earlier than him. The last 20 games he’s played at a top 15 player level. The last seven, MVP candidate level. At 22 years old. If you have serious doubts that he can become a franchise player, then you need to look closer.
If Jalen averages 25pts at league average efficiency with his 2 way defense for a season, is that a top 15 franchise player to you?
I can't speak for Nook, but that would be for me. And I don't think that's anywhere close to Green's ceiling.
You are going to be cautiously pessimistic until the day of the literal championship parade huh? That's okay. People have different perspectives.
If a 22-23 year old can average around 24-25 ppg on a 2nd seed in the West I have no doubt their trajectory is going to be 30 ppg scorer on a elite team in their peak You see a lot of young dudes putting up 24 ppg on tanking teams. This is different.
