He actually was at his leanest in his final year with a MLB career high in stolen bases if I recall... but all the power was gone either due to slimming down or end of the juiced (base)balls.
This is going to further mitigate the chances of players signing early extensions with a buyout of FA years like Alex and Yordan have done for the Astros. Alex would have likely been signed by now had he been a FA right after 2022.
I think he thought the Astros were swindling him with what they offered. But the Astros have offered contracts that exceeded the open market of several of their past free agents. When Brown said they knew they offered the best market deal they could, and quickly pivoted towards Paredes after he wasn’t ready to sign; you knew the Astros were resigned to not being squeezed by the Boras crew. Keutchel and Correa found out that teams aren’t giving contracts like candy at Halloween. Teams identify about about 3 or 4 so called all world players each year, and offer them the moon; every else gets what seems to be standard contract rate based on age, position, and historical numbers. Bregman is no longer in the MVP realm, not even in the all-star level, so he gets good MLB money, but he’s not getting his own fleet of Brinks trucks.
Besides Bregman, who? Springer, Correa, Morton, Verlander, Cole - none of the offers the Astros made were remotely competitive, as far as we know. Nothing wrong with that - most free agents are overpaid when you compare to club-controlled players, so it's a reasonable strategy. But the Astros aren't exactly known for making competitive offers to their stars who go into free agency.
And he got 350 million and then 315 million before an injury issue nobody knew about came to light. The Astros offer was not remotely competitive based on all the available knowledge at the time. And he still ended up making more than we offered even after the super offers got rescinded.
Maybe, but they still didn't even offer him as much money as the mighty Minnesota Twins did who ended up paying him 200 million, and at least 235 million total over 7 years, possibly up to 305 million over 11. Even after a terrible free agency he STILL got significantly more than we offered. The Astros offer was always a courtesy offer they knew he was never taking.
what does AI say? Here’s a detailed breakdown of how the Houston Astros have fared with the players mentioned and whether their decisions to let them leave were justified based on the players’ performances and contracts: 1. George Springer • Astros’ Offer: Reportedly far less than the six-year, $150 million contract he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays. • Performance Post-Astros: • Springer has been a key player for the Blue Jays, contributing with his bat and defense. However, he has dealt with injury issues, limiting his playing time. • Over three seasons, his production has been slightly below the value expected for his contract’s average annual value ($25 million/year). • Assessment: While Springer has been productive, the Astros may have avoided significant injury risk and financial burden by not matching the Blue Jays’ offer. Their center field production since has been inconsistent, but their financial flexibility has allowed other moves. 2. Carlos Correa • Astros’ Offer: A reported five-year, $160 million deal. • Outcome: Correa declined and signed shorter deals with the Twins, totaling $200 million over six years after adjustments to contract offers with other teams due to health concerns. • Performance Post-Astros: • Correa has maintained his elite defense but has had inconsistent offensive seasons. • Injury concerns have loomed large, but he’s remained a leader and a strong postseason performer for the Twins. • Assessment: Letting Correa walk made sense, especially with rookie Jeremy Peña stepping in and delivering both defensively and offensively, highlighted by his 2022 ALCS and World Series MVP performances. 3. Charlie Morton • Astros’ Offer: The Astros did not aggressively pursue Morton after 2018, and he signed a two-year, $30 million deal with the Rays. • Performance Post-Astros: • Morton has continued to pitch at a high level, including helping the Rays and Braves reach the postseason and winning the 2021 World Series with Atlanta. • He has consistently been a reliable veteran pitcher. • Assessment: Letting Morton leave appears to have been a misstep, as the Astros have occasionally struggled with pitching depth. His relatively affordable contracts suggest the Astros underestimated his potential contributions. 4. Justin Verlander • Astros’ Offer: The Astros let Verlander sign with the Mets for two years, $86.7 million after his 2022 Cy Young season. They reacquired him in 2023 via trade. • Performance Post-Astros (Pre-Trade): • Verlander struggled with injuries in the first half of his Mets tenure but remained effective when healthy. • Assessment: The Astros showed foresight in not committing long-term at a high cost to an aging pitcher, yet reacquiring him when the price dropped shows their adaptability. The deal balanced risk and performance. 5. Gerrit Cole • Astros’ Offer: Extended only a $17.8 million qualifying offer. • Outcome: Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees in 2019. • Performance Post-Astros: • Cole has been consistently excellent with the Yankees, remaining one of MLB’s top pitchers. In 2022, he led the AL in strikeouts and continues to anchor the Yankees’ rotation. • Assessment: While Cole has lived up to his contract, the Astros have maintained one of MLB’s top pitching staffs without his massive salary commitment. Their decision aligns with their long-term financial strategy. Overall Assessment of Astros’ Strategy The Astros’ approach to free agents—offering shorter or less competitive deals—has been driven by financial prudence and a focus on developing and retaining younger, club-controlled players. While they’ve let elite talent go: • They’ve largely replaced production internally or with lower-cost acquisitions (e.g., Jeremy Peña replacing Correa, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier stepping up after Cole’s departure). • Their decisions, while occasionally questionable (e.g., Morton), have mostly allowed them to remain perennial contenders, including multiple World Series appearances and championships since 2017. Did the Players Live Up to Their Contracts? • Springer: Partially. Productive when healthy but limited by injuries. • Correa: Mostly, though injury concerns may overshadow his value. • Morton: Yes, consistently effective and dependable. • Verlander: Yes, especially given his Cy Young performance in 2022. • Cole: Absolutely. A cornerstone of the Yankees’ rotation. Conclusion The Astros’ unwillingness to overpay for free agents has been a reasonable strategy, balancing short-term competitiveness with long-term sustainability. While some players have lived up to their new contracts, the Astros have consistently found ways to succeed without them, validating their approach overall.
Guys like Yordan, Altuve etc... will most likely take the money. Guys from poor backgrounds that have a chance to be guaranteed 100 million dollars will always take the money, rightfully so.
Agree with this. Those throwing out Keuchel is unfair to compare given he wasn't a FA at the time though it was a fair deal offered at the time.
Obviously they made the best bid for Bregs and were turned down. What does what they did with other players matter? Crane made offers and was turned down. Sometimes things didn't turn out well for those players. But things have continued to workout well for Crane and the Stros. Lets hope this continues, Crane's certainly earned the benefit of the doubt.
I agree that he wasn't gonna stay, but the Astros knew about the injury and what they offered him was very similar to what he eventually signed for. The one year in minnesota does add to the total but it was a different contract and before his ankle/foot injury corrected his value.
