Making the Finals in next 2 years?

Exactly.

 

8%?

The Rockets defense is already Finals-worthy. The offense, however, needs to make a significant improvement. Maybe they'll get there next year, but it's likely going to take another 2-3 years.

 

Hmm, I don't know if I buy the "20 teams could make the finals" premise. There were multiple things about that 2022-2023 Miami team you mentioned that made them more likely than the average lower-seed to go deep.

1. Jimmy Butler is a guy who regularly steps up his game in the playoffs and basically transforms into a top 10 player. This is not just a narrative, his career statistics in a pretty significant sample size of 119 playoff games are significantly better than his regular season stats.

2. Their roster as a whole had an above-average amount of playoff experience per minute played, and that matters.

3. The Heat have one of the GOAT coaches, and I'd argue that makes an outsized difference in the playoffs where you face the same team over and over again and adjustments are critical.

4. They were very dinged-up that year during the regular season but largely got healthy come playoff time. I think the actual talent level on that roster was higher than their record showed.

I agree there's always some degree of luck, and technically any playoff team could make it to the Finals given enough good fortune, but practically I think the odds are incredibly slim for teams like ours with no top 10 player and most rotation players having no playoff experience at all--so slim that I would say it's borderline impossible.

 

I am beyond impressed with the way Stone has rebuilt this team and how Udoka has the team performing to it's full potential. What concerns me is that, as of right now, it doesn't appear that we'll have the best player in the series against either the Thunder, Spurs or T-Wolves for the next 8-10 years, or the Nuggets for the next 5 or so. I'm not even sure we'll have the best player against the Grizzlies.

I really hope Amen takes some steps forward because he looks like our best chance.

As for your actual question, I wouldn't consider making any moves before the summer. I don't see a move that could put us over the top this season, unless you're willing to take a big gamble on Zion. When healthy, he is that 1A option we're lacking. Obvious problem being that he is seldom healthy.

I'm hoping we have another lucky ping pong ball with the Suns pick and get a top 3 pick again. I know that's a long shot, but a top 3 pick in this draft would be amazing trade bait for that 1A option. Of course, if it's Cooper Flagg you keep him and use Bari or Tari as trade bait.

 

I'd say slim. I see a lot of good teams in the West, but all of them except OKC have their warts (e.g., old, injuries) that could bite them in the playoffs. Just need OKC to trip up for some team besides them to make the Finals.

 

As much as I dislike Luka as a person, objectively you can add Dallas to that list too. The good news is, it wouldn't be surprising to see Joker retire right around when our players are hitting their peak years, and how healthy Wemby will remain is still a major and important question for how his career will go. Even if Wemby ends up struggling with injuries, an open question at this point, that still leaves Luka and SGA to deal with.

Because the competition is so fierce, I think our realistic best hope over the next decade or so is to sneak in one championship amid being perpetually a good team in the playoff mix. If one of our guys doesn't step into true superstar status in the next couple years, that's when I'd maybe start looking toward renting an aging star and try to go for it, the way Butler is obviously available right now. I wouldn't do it this season though, we need our guys to grow up a little bit more and get some playoff experience first.

 

The Jimmy playoff stuff is mostly a narrative, he has pretty much the same efficiency drop off that most guys do, let's not act like he's jokic or lebron or something. 20 is probably an exaggeration since that would be all playoff and play-in teams but i think it's definitively 12-15 range with enough luck. Miami had their run because everyone got hurt and they all shot like curry. If the rockets shoot 45% from 3 in a series, i think they could beat any team in the league, and that goes for most playoff teams. Right now the wolves are the 8 seed. Let's say Shai gets hurt in game 1 and the wolves are on fire all series, they easily win. Then they play denver or dallas, jokic/luka get hurt and they're in the WCF. That miami thing luck wise is something we will probably never see again in our lifetimes though, so idk how much i'd wanna count on that.

 

Basically, while i think we have a really good squad of young talent with tons of potential and upside - i dont think its a championship roster. I dont think using and adding our existing frps to the roster is going to make a championship team. I think we're a good team. I think if we just use our picks without attempting any major trade that we will win a few playoff series over the next few years - but i dont think its a championship squad.

I think we still need to make a significant move or two to be legit contenders imo...

To your point... "At that point, you may not even have to trade all of our picks because you can probably throw in our 2 worst performing prospects to be equivalent to the value of a FRP or two. Let's say Cam flops, Green chokes in the playoffs badly and Booker is available. You can legit throw in Cam and Jalen to lessen the number of picks you're sending out or beat other teams in a bidding war."
Yes... that would be using some draft capital and a prospect to upgrade a starting position... thats what im saying to do.... lol! If the opp presents, we need to be on it now... not wait to see who flops and then try to package them... thats the gamble... u cant hit a dinger unless yer a swinger!

I think we're still a piece or two away... we need our clutch shooter... we need the guy thats going to take the game in his hands during crunch time... maybe somebody on the existing squad will develop into those roles... maybe... id rather move a prospect or two, throw in a draft pick or two and KNOW we got that guy. lol!

Falling back on the continuously quoted remark about opportunity not being a lengthy visitor.... well right now I think we have an opportunity at an actual championship contender - if we are aggressive and not content to simply sit our hands and hope folks continue to develop... hope in one hand... lol

 

If Phoenix will play, we should trade for Durant with one or two picks and FVV and Cam. We would be contenders this year and next. Durant would be gone in 27 and by then Amen, Sengun, and Jalen will be at least all-star level. I think Amen will be a superstar. Jabari is only 21 as well. You guys are really selling these young guys short. No way SGA and Chet spend their entire careers in freaking OKC. OKC has a ton of picks, but most are of low quality. Wemby is the wild card here, but one guy does not make a team, and just like Chet, he will probably have injuries. Hopefully, Flagg ends up in Washington or somewhere else in the East. I believe our team will have one superstar and 2 all-star level players next year and a helluva bench and coach. Durant is still a superstar when healthy and only has two seasons left on his contract. We should either stand pat or go get him, unless Ant or Giannis demand out.

 

Oof that's super rough, can't join you on that journey bro. Highly pessimistic to still be thinking that in 2025 imo. We're on a 50-win pace with one of the youngest teams in the NBA. In the West. Without enough role player shooters even.

If I were the players I would be asking what in the name of god I have to do for you to believe we will improve. They smashed your expectations 2 seasons in a row. If they keep improving, there's no such thing as a non-contender 60-win team. I think you owe them way more faith than "we got nothing but some great spare parts" given what they've done to your predictions. Did you think we'd win 41 last season and 50 this season prior to these seasons starting?

Might help to go look at the 3rd and 4th seasons of the players you want to acquire. You may find it looks exactly like we look right now.

 

Yeah. I should have. Though for some reason I could see Luka demanding a trade out in the near future. If he does, I expect it'll be to the Lakers or the Heat though. Let's pray it's the Heat. It would be great to see one of the West's best players go East.

P.s. I also didn't initially include Ant because I could see him demanding out of Minnesota - but I probably should have included him anyway so I went and added the Wolves.

 

imo the Durant thing would be a reasonable play... an upscale for a 'guy thats been there' without totally raiding the cupboard... 2 years is short enough that as he declines we're not on the hook for years to come...

 

Trends look good on the youngsters... but to your point... we havent even seen these guys perform in the postseason.... so really we dont know we got... truth be told.
I never used the term 'spare parts'... i think we got some real intriguing pieces with multiple guys with superstar potential - lets double down on that and hope we got the beginnings of something special!