Was thinking about what Houston really needs from the farm in the short term in order to keep the window open past 2025. After comparing the current roster to the 2017 and 2022 rosters, I feel like they need 1 star player in 2025 and another 2 in 2026; after that they likely won’t lose another star player until 2028. They should have the payroll flexibility to add 1 star player this offseason, and have enough money coming off the books after 2025 to buy another star free agent next offseason. So the real demand of the farm is to produce 1 star level player by March 2026. It’s very unlikely any player not already slated for AA will be established by then, so looking at players projected to start 2025 in Corpus or Sugar Land, here are the guys I think have potential project for 3+ fwar in 2026: Zach Dezenzo Brice Matthews Shay Whitcomb Pedro Leon Jacob Melton Kenedy Corona Zach Cole Luis Baez AJ Blubaugh Miguel Ullola Ethan Pecko James Hicks So the question is, what are the chances that at least one of those 12 players is an established star in the majors by spring 2026? I can’t imagine it’s less than 40% and I think 60% is totally reasonable.
Exactly one year ago, were we thinking that Blanco and Arrighetti would successfully make the jump to The Show? I seriously doubt anyone here did.
Who knows, if I had to guess Matthews and Baez. Truth is as long as the Stros have pitching they will have a chance to win a championship.
Quoted for truth There will be a couple of guys next yr that make a big contribution to the MLB club next year. Peopledont realize how well the Stros are setup, regardless of what the progonosticators say. For the last 8 years Luhnow/Click have been able to unearth gems. Lets hope Dana can do the same.
Good point. Houston has continued to show the ability to identify and develop pitching; that’s evidenced not only by how good Blanco and Arrighetti were in the rotation but also how good Scott, Ort, and King were in the bullpen. That could really open the door to having trade chips to acquire hitters down the road. The pitching injuries really destroyed Houston last season. Imagine if everyone was healthy and they knew they could bring up Blanco or Arrighetti if they traded Javier or Garcia or McCullers for a 1B or LF? Could have made all the difference last season. And that could play out better in 2025. If Garcia and (gulp) McCullers are healthy by opening day, and Javier stays on track to be back by July, then Houston could have a big surplus of starting pitching depth entering the deadline, especially if they feel comfortable bringing up Blubaugh, Gusto, Ullola, Pecko, etc.
love your analysis but think you are being generous on your star hit rate. I would imagine odds on one of those players generating the necessary war at less than 10% the baseball development gods have been kind to us for the majority of a decade. That won’t last forever
I think it takes both. The astros have absolutely top tier pitching development and have shown this to be an organizational philosophy/approach that is likely to remain. They’ve also seen quite a bit of luck squeezing out every bit from the luhnow fruit they could. Luhnow had great skill in evaluating talent. We’ve exhausted that talent now. I’m a believer in Dana’s talent evaluation and ability to strengthen the farm but look at the existing AA - AAA crop as profiling more in the likely to be journeymen to mid level starters.
