How sure are we that fox is better than FVV? EMP likes FVV way more, BPM likes FVV, vorp they're tied. Kings offense is better without fox, kings defense is better without fox. Now you can make an argument that with Ime fox would be better on defense, because most of the reason the metrics favor fred is because he's really good on defense and fox sucks. Mike Brown is a very good defensive coach though so idk how much credence i would give that idea.
I'm with you there. If it was a PG who is as good as Edwards I'd be all in on trading Fred and Jalen both, and a couple first round picks, but I don't want to give up young talent and draft picks for Fox. Save the money for a better upgrade down the road. He might be better than Fred in PER and TS%, but he's still a below average 3 PT shooter (which we desperately need), he's not a top 10 PG, and his turnover ratio s*cks compared to Fred.
Player A: 29yo, 6’5, 2x all star 24/5/5 per 36, 64% TS on 26% USG +6.3 on/off differential +2.3 offensive EPM 45% from 3 on 8.2 3PA Average to poor defensively 13-18 team record $95M/2 yrs financial obligation Player B: 27yo, 6’3, 1x all star 25/6/5 per 36, 57% TS on 29% USG -5 on/off differential +1.9 offensive EPM 33% from 3 on 6 3PA Average to poor defensively 13-18 team record $267M/5 yrs financial obligation Player A is reportedly available via trade for just expiring contracts. Player B would likely cost something like 3 FRP’s + 2 young players. If you’re one of those people who doesn’t want to play the long game and is itching to improve the team now… very very hard to argue for Player B. (I wouldn’t trade for either ofc)
No. I think to trade off draft picks and young talent plus Fred for him is dumb. It's not like he is a top 10 PG. Plus, his ASST/TO ratio isn't good, and we already have better defensive players on the bench. Id rather wait and pay big for a bigger star down the road if we get the chance. See how the season pans out. Jalen still has to prove he is worthy of the contract leap next year. If he stays consistently below ave, then lump him and Fred and trade them both for a couple guys who can shoot decent, and play defense, and ask for draft picks on top of that. Use those future draft picks and money saved for a star down the road or to trade up in the draft.
i would say yes to fox but only question is how much draft capital and what type of package would i get back would be the question if we were to go that route
You do realize if a pg isn't a primary scorer, then they will likely have a much better assist to to ratio, right? If you just stand on the perimeter and shoot jumpers, it greatly cuts down your turnovers because there's no risk. FVV's ast/to ratio with the Rockets is better than the career ast/to ratio of Magic Johnson, James Harden and John Stockton. That doesn't make him a better pg. Kind of funny that many people are saying that they don't want Fox because he will be a supermax player. That would mean that he would have to make an All-NBA team but now you are saying that he's not a top 10 pg. Bottom line is that the Rockets are super inefficient. It's not just Green either. Going into last night's game, Jalen and Alpie were tied in ts%. As of now, green is at 53.5%, Sengun is at 54.5%, Brooks is at 55.7% , Eason is at 55.7% and FVV is at 50.3%. We also have no goto guy/ closer. You don't think that a guy that can put up 26 a night on almost 58% ts% and is one of the top clutch players in the league would make a difference? So, who is the star that we can acquire? There aren't a whole lot of high scoring, efficient players with great ast/to numbers in the league and acquiring one of those guys isn't easy. Fox wouldn't solve all of our issues but he'd fix alot of them. We need efficiency, not neccesarily from 3pt shooting either. Fox is putting up 26 pts a night on high efficiency while playing for a team that is almost as bad of a 3 point shooting team as the Rockets. Why couldn't he do the same for Houston? It would also be really nice to just be able to give the ball to him and let him get points for us at the end of games or during one of our offensive droughts. Definitely better that what we had to endure down the stretch last night.
I think if you just straight up replace fvv with fox we would be a SMIDGE better most likely. Our defense would be hurt fairly substantially going from someone really good to someone really bad, but also going from a low TO guy to a high TO guy. The rockets actually have a better offensive rating when fvv is on the court than the kings do with fox. There's a 0% chance fox will "deserve" all nba, he might make it because of the 65 game rule since guys like embiid, durant, etc. won't be eligible probably, but there's no scenario where fox is or ever will be a top 15 player in the league. I agree that it's gonna be hard to acquire the kinda player we need to be a legit contender, and it's possible we will never be able to. However, we also know with 100% certainty that fox is not that kinda player and on a 30% max or more will be an albatross, as literally every single player around his level that has signed a deal like that has been.
I agree with all of this... Moreover, I think we have shown night and night out how the strength of this team is its uptempo. harassing style of play. IMHO adding Fox / Swipa improves that ability to play up-tempo. Alpi would have to improve his stamina, but he has shown massive improvements in his defense this year and I think he is up to the task. If the Rox were to acquire Fox + Huerter+ Lyles from the Kings [for FVV + Tate + Aussie Jock] (looking more and more unlikely ), I think you have the makings of two different units / lineups. Half-court / slow ball: Reed / Holiday - Huerter - Dillon - Lyles / Unc Jeff - Sengawd. Surround Alpi with shooters a la Hakeem Rox. Uptempo / aggressive D (giggity): Fox - Jalen - Amen / Cam - Tari - Bari. This unit attacks passing lanes and harasses other team into TO's for layups. Moreover, you still have the contracts to make a move for another star with Dillon + Unc Jeff + Adams (along with Cam or Reed) I would really think about targeting Myles Turner if Pacers fall off b/c they will be unlikely to be able to keep him as a FA.
I completely disagree with the idea that we would just be a smidge better. I don't think that you are acknowleging just how bad VanVleet has been this year. Fox is a much better offensive player. He's more efficient than FVV at all three levels. Fox is #5 in the league for drives per game at 17 per game. He's efficient on those drives with 57% fg% and the kings score on 72.9% of his drives. That would be huge for the Rockets. That might come in handy down the stretch in tight games. We have nobody to depend on in clutch situations. Fox is one of the best in the league. I'll gladly take 2 additional turnovers per game if I'm getting a big boost in scoring and efficiency and gaining a closer. Our defense is based on the system, it doesn't rely on every player being a lock down defender. Our defense would be fine. Also realize that the main factor for our offensive rating is offensive rebounding. It has very little to do with the pg. We're talking about one of the most inefficient teams in the league replacing their most inefficient rotational player so far this year with a guy averaging almost 11 more pts/game on a much, much higher efficiency. Then factor in that we would actually have a goto guy and it's way more than a smidge difference.
Fox is definitely one of the fastest players in the league so he should fit in an uptempo game. Aquiring Fox is going to cost so we don't know who would still be here though you can assume that Thompson would be as would Jalen and Alpie with the poison pill provision in their contracts. If we have 3 uber athletes running the break, I don't think you need to have Sengun try and keep up with them. The Showtime Lakers are the prototype for a running team, yet they had a 40 year old Kareem at center. Jabbar did his work in the half court and left the breaks to Magic, Scott, Worthy and Cooper. Sengun could do the same. Of course, Sacramento is going to do all the can NOT to trade Fox.
I understand that our defense is not based on any one player, but you're still replacing someone very good with someone very bad, who also turns it over more, that will hurt our defense without question. Ya Fred's shooting has been a disaster this season, no doubt. My issue is just not about this season, this season doesn't matter. We're not competing this season, so a minor upgrade at PG is irrelevant. If you trade for fox (i mean a realistic trade package, which would include multiple picks/prospects), you are committing to giving him a 5 year 30% max. That's my issue, and to me that's an utter disaster and would be a death sentence for this rockets era unless amen or alpi become MVP level top 3 players (close to 0% chance of that). I think it's also more valuable to give those clutch reps to our young guys, to help their development. Pretty much all the metrics still favor fvv over fox, stuff like epm, bpm, etc. His team has sucked even though he's played every game, i'm not just a believer in fox.
Its not a small upgrade, it's a rather large one. Udoka coaches defense very well. Our defense would be fine. It's not like FVV is a lockdown defender. Obviously, you can't evaluate any deal without knowing what you"d have to give up. Fox fixes a couple of big issues for us. No denying that. With or without Fox, we're going to get squeezed for cap space when our remaining young guys come up for new contracts. The front office will have to make some tough decisions and it will likely mean that some of our core youngsters move on to another team. The Rockets will have to figure that out. the stats you are using to compare the two players are based on entire lineups not just the individual players. They tend to produce some odd results.
% Are you fine with the rockets giving him a 30% max? The history for players at his level getting these contracts is HORRIFIC. He's also a player who REALLY relies on his athleticism, and as a small guard that will decline soon so him at 32/33/34 will be a disaster ala brad beal, john wall, etc.
Hard to say on the 30% since we don't know what the Rockets plan to do with the contracts for the remaining youngsters. As for him declining, how do we know that? What athletic players game fell off a cliff when they turned 30? Beal was never super athletic and he's always hurt. Wall didn't lose his athleticism, he's just never been efficient and that's the primary focus for teams now days. I remember people saying the same thing about Vince Carter and he ended up playing into his 40's.
The last vince season where you can argue he was a max level player was age 30, for westbrook it was age 29, for wall it was 26 (obviously he got decimated by injury), for beal it was 27. If fox was a free agent and the rockets could sign him for a 5 year 30% deal this offseason, i would be unequivocally against it. Giving that type of contract to a player who isn't a top 15-20 guy is always going to be a disaster, because the value is so bad. The rockets are in a good spot, we don't need to rush into mediocrity just to try to win 2 more games this season or next.
How many teams does fox upgrade to the starting point guard spot? Phx Sas Lal Hou Was Mia Brk Brk and Was have no reason to trade for him.. That leaves 5 teams... And really he's not an upgrade to tyler herro So now it's 4 teams Sas Phx (id rather have Jones) Lal Hou Market very small for fox.
Trading for Fox would only be a short term solution. It would mess up our long term goals. I don't see him as someone that could be a part of a championship team. Wait for Booker. Even if he does not become available, FO should still sit on their picks and players. A better or equally good opportunity will eventually arise.
