If the Astros have to trade away their ace pitcher to field a competent right fielder, they should just pack it in for the 25 season. But to answer your question no, they won’t replace Framber’s expected 2025 WAR in a trade. If you need salary to find a RF, find a trade partner for Press and Caratini.
My hope is that they are paired with a trade for another more impactful lefty bad (B Lowe, W Abreu, C Mullins, M Yastrzemski, L Wade). If Winker or Heyward or Verdugo are solely deployed in the bottom 1/3 of the lineup against RHP, they’ll be very good. LF Lowe/Dubon CF McCormick/Meyers RF Heyward/McCormick I feel like that would be an extremely productive OF depth chart, probably among the top 7-8 in the league.
I’ll take Walker at 3/60…. Gold Glove at first, has an OPS+ of like 123 the last three years and solid across the board. Torres is coming off a mediocre year, but he can play second and his deal is one year. Solid deal for Tigers. If I were Torres I wouldn’t want to be in that line up, but Tigers plugged a hole for next year and didn’t break the bank. It’s also possible Torres bounces back.
My question was can the trade bring back help for the OF that is more than his replacement hurts the rotation. And the answer is Yes. But that is a different question than whether they should trade him. Let's use Cedric Mullins and Heston Kjerstad for Framber. Mullins projects to 2.9 WAR and Trammell is 0.5. If each got 500 PAs, Mullins projects to 2.5 and Trammell is 0.9. That's +1.6 WAR Kjerstad projects to 0.9 WAR in 308 PAs. He would be replacing Leon who is currently projected for 0.1 WAR in 182 PAs. If Kjerstad only gets Leon's 182 PAs he projects to 0.5 WAR. That's +0.4 WAR. That's a total difference of +2.0 WAR Framber projects to 3.7 WAR in 31 starts. We need to spread his starts out amongst the other starters w/o any of them getting over 31. Brown 3.2 in 31 starts. Blanco 1.7 in 29 starts +2 gs = +0.1 WAR Arrighetti 1.2 in 26 starts. +5 gs = +0.2 WAR Garcia 1.3 in 19 starts +12 gs = +0.8 WAR McCullers 0.8 in 10 starts. Wesneski 0.7 in 10 starts. + 12 gs = +0.8 WAR +1.9 WAR minus Frambers 3.7 = -1.8 WAR. The trade yields +0.2 total WAR in 2025 + Kjerstad was MLB'pipeline's #80 and Fangraphs #12 overall prospect last year and is under control for 6 years. I'm sure the Mets, Red Sox, Giants, and others could come up with a similar package.
I thought burnes would at least try to beat Fried's deal in total value. Hometown discount, dbacks weren't gun shy after Montgomery.
I saw a report that he was looking for $240 but I guess he took less money for less years. He average $35 a year. Fried, $27ish. Plus he has opt out options but can't see him opting out. And if all goes well, could get 1 more contract when it ends.
Can’t help but wonder if a pitching needy team makes Dana an offer he can’t refuse for Framber. Toronto, SF, and Baltimore have all largely struck out on the SP FA market.
With Burnes going to Arizona for big money, they may want to save a few clams... Trash for trash... Montero for Montgomery He can be a lefty pen guy or swing starter. It would cost us an additional 10 million. Could be useful depth and a trade chip at the deadline if he shows anything.
I agree, it would be a successful reload to flip Framber for an everyday rightfielder and a couple of pitching prospects. Brown Blanco Arrighetti Garcia That's a decent 1-4. Would need to pickup some depth on the backend. Who knows what comes from Javier, France, Mccullers, etc. midway through the season...
Part of Framber’s value is his durability. You cant just spread his starts out among the rest of our projected starters. Guys get hurt. Need to skip a turn for rest. Whatever. Those are baked into the projections. Garcia isn’t starting 31 games in 25, coming off a serious injury. Not a chance. Look at the next man up, JP France or whoever, as who will get the extra work. You also need to factor in what the effect of 31 more short starts will be on taxing the bullpen, 5 inning starts instead of Framber’s usual 7. Framber isn’t getting traded away. Hopefully he will be extended.
Montgomery makes a lot more money than montero. Montero is beyond dead money at this point. The only teams interested would be indy league.
If hitting comes up short you can still compete for a title. If starting pitching comes up short you are f**ked, I am not trading Framber for hitting without a significant replacement. The Astros played like a 100 win team for most of the season but we were 12-24 to start the season because starting pitching was often non competitive.
Great points. Obviously I couldn't break down every scenario. But I also did not address any starts from Gusto, Gordon, Blubaugh, Ullola, France, or Javier. I didn't breakdown Whitley's innings in the bullpen or any other RP. In fact Whitley has 0 innings in my original breakdown. He can pick up the extra 1-2 innings whenever Framber's replacement doesn't go 6. And I agree that at this point it's doubtful that Framber gets traded so it's all moot. I'm just saying that there is a scenario where a Framber trade improves the outfield more than his loss hurts the pitching. And, no question that is better for 2026 and beyond.
He is gonna have to eat some humble pie in terms of salary expectations. But he desperately wants 300 wins so he will only sign with a team that he thinks will win 100 games and give him a solid rotation spot. I actually wouldn’t be shocked to see him end up in Baltimore. But Houston and NY are also options.
