This seems most likely. Someone may get desperate and give him what he wants(wanted) in the first place.
True, and also look at the non-superstar players who got screwed by Boras's tactics (more options late on the market the better), ended up with late 1ish year deals, and never saw the money they could have had earlier in the signing season.
I agree with whoever said earlier that the players have the ability to choose how risky they want to play things. It's not up to Boras. Chapman signed a short deal and then chose to sign an extension with the Giants. Snell got his one year deal in March and then got the huge contract in November. I know Jordan Montgomery was upset about his situation, but honestly he's terrible and will be stealing money from the D-Backs for a second year in a row.
I'm not saying baseball has been hurt. I personally, as a fan, want my favorite players to play for my favorite team longer and spend their entire careers there if they want to. I personally don't like seeing players have 10 year careers with 6 different teams or a Superstar play 7 years with 1 team and then 5 more teams over the remaining 7 years of his career. And I hate seeing teams unable to resign their home grown players because of the differences in market size and revenue streams
100% the agent works for player and not the other way around. That doesn't mean that player gets the best advice 100% of the time.
I could not disagree with this more. 1) have you seen the contracts Boras has negotiated this year? He had an awful offseason last year, but not this year. Where are these pillow contracts you talk about? THIS offseason every one of his players has signed for more than projected by the experts. Alex? Just wait. He hasn't signed yet. 2) Boras didn't overplay anything. He just happened to be dealing with a stubborn and out of touch owner who refuses to agree to contracts that, in some cases, are in the best interest of his team winning. Alex was absolutely crucial to the Astros winning 4 AL pennants and 2 World Series. He has averaged 4.5 bWAR per season over the past 3 years, and wants a contract through his age 37 season. Jose Altuve was absolutely crucial to the Astros winning 4 AL pennants and 2 World Series. He has averaged 3.8 bWAR per season over the past 3 years and wanted a contract through his age 39 season. Now looking at it from Boras' point if view, how could Crane say Yes to Altuve but No to Bregman? As the man negotiating both deals, there is no legitimate reason. The asking price he set for Alex is a much more team friendly deal and much less likely to turn into a bad contract. How could he reasonably expect the Astros to stone wall him? It makes no sense. How is this overplaying his hand? Saying Boras over played his hand asking for 7 years, when he just got 5 years at a similar AAV for a lesser player who is 4 years older , from the same team is not reasonable. And yes, in 2024, and 2025 forward, Altuve is a lesser player than Bregman. And a 7 year contract for Alex is going to be a much better contract than Altuve's 5 year deal that start in 2025. Crane is the bad guy on this one.
It's just a table on fangraphs. They say each WAR is worth $8M. Multiply his WAR × 8 to get how much he has been worth. Then look at how much he has been paid. He has outperformed his contract approximately 3 to 1. But inflation and value of money per year is not mentioned or calculated.
Lol. Maybe so, maybe not, maybe there is no bad guy, but you had your mind made up about it a long time ago.
I admit that Alex is my favorite player and him playing somewhere else sucks. I also admit that I have no details on what offers were made or how the negotiations went. But it's generally been reported that Alex was offered 6 years and wants 7. Common sense dictates that either Crane/Brown refused to go to 7 years, or Boras/Alex refused to agree to a low enough number on 6 or would not accept 6 at all, at any number. My point is Crane just agreed to a contract for Altuve through his age 39 season. Alex is 4 years younger, and has been better recently. Crane is willing to sign him through his age 36 season but not age 37? Boras and Alex had every reason to think Crane and Brown would be willing once the negotiations got going. It makes no sense for Crane to agree to -39 for Altuve but not -37 for Alex. And Alex wanting a contract that runs through age 37 is not only reasonable, but expected. When you look at the history of FA comparable to Alex the past 5 years, the vast majority of them got a contract at least through their age 37 seasons and many of them got signed through age 39 or even longer. Crane not willing to do it is actually pretty shitty in my opinion.
Maybe having one aging vet signed until they're 40 is tolerable, but having 2 is 1 too many? ...and I'm not sure, as you say, Bregman "has been better recently"
Clearly no team is offering Bregman the contract he is wanting otherwise he would be signed right now. Why should the Astros bid against themselves? Because they gave Altuve that deal? And the Altuve deal will likely age poorly as well. You can live with one aging bad contract. And if you’re going to give it to anyone, you give it to the future HOFer that has become an icon in this city.
But Alex is asking for a contract through age 37, not 40. As for my opinion of Alex being better recently, it's because he is a more well rounded player and positive in more aspects of the game. 2022-2024: bWAR: Alex = 13.6, Altuve = 11.4. This takes all aspects of the game into consideration. Altuve is a better hitter, but Alex is 20% better than average. Alex is an exceptional fielder who saves run with his glove and arm Altuve is a poor fielder and has been negative in defensive runs saved and outs above average. Alex is slow on the bases but makes good decisions. Altuve is a terrible baserunner, frequently running into outs when he shouldn't beceven taking chances. Overall I think Alex has been better, and definitely profiles to be better as their contracts age.
I'm just saying based on all the facts about the 2 players and their situations, it was not unreasonable for Boras to expect the Astros to agree to 7 years. Clearly they didn't but, based on the facts discussed that should be a surprise. And based on history, it's very unreasonable to think he won't find 7 years somewhere in this market. We will see. I still expect it you happen, though the Astros publicly pulling out hurts the potential offers. We will see.
I'm well aware of the aspects of the game of baseball. Bregman indeed has much the much higher defensive value, he's also been a worse offensive player for the past few years. How will Bregman's range play over time vs Altuve's? Their arm (neither's ever had a great one)? If I had to guess ('couse that's all we can do prognosticating into the future) Altuve will be the better hitter. He has more instincts, hands and, frankly, more talent. I say this with the personal caveat that Bregman is possibly the most frustrating Astro I've seen in the past 20 years...he can be so, so good, but can also fall right off the edge of the flat earth for a couple of months at a time. Also, I threw 40 out there as a year because I like round numbers, literally no other reason. Baserunning is a meh, to me: Bregman is smart as hell on the bases but is now so slow he doesn't take enough chances to make a difference, Altuve will run you into and out of outs but will also get you some extra bases.
I was a teenager when the Bagwell/Biggio era started. Sure, I enjoyed watching Biggio get his 3000th hit as an Astro, Bagwell getting his 400th HR as an Astro, and then watching both of them retire as Astros... However, those moments mean very little to me after getting a taste of winning the World Series 2 times. Winning is all I care about now with the Astros. I don't root for the names on the back of the jerseys. I just want championships. I root against players in arbitration. I don't care if their service time gets manipulated. Crane has spending limits and rules about contracts. Altuve agreed to contracts within those constraints. Bregman did not. So do everything you can to win within those constraints. Ruthless and unapologetic is how I want the franchise run. All the boo hoo feels will go away when they hoist another WS trophy just like it did in 2022.
Bagwell retired when he physically had to. Biggio retired when everyone said it was time to. I have very fond memories of those years. The 80's too. That's the beauty of baseball.
A huge reason for the “record-offseason” is the signing of Soto who, on his playing merit alone, likely drove up his contract price. Same could be said for Snell as well. I’m pretty sure Bregman could care less how much Soto got paid. From my count, Boras has currently signed 6 of his 13 free agents to date with Burnes, Bregman and Alonso as the noticeable unsigned FAs. TO DATE on the scale of “got his ass handed to him” and record-setting offseason Boras is somewhere in the middle but IMO would need to secure desired contracts for 2 of Burnes, Bregman or Alonso to have a nice offseason. Signed Blake Snell Sean Manaea Frankie Montas Michael Conforto (1-year contract) Yusei Kickuchi Juan Soto Unsigned Alex Bregman Corbin Burnes Pete Alonso Ha-Seong Kim Joey Gallo JD Martinez Max Scherzer
