Tough to say with him. His career high is 201 innings back in 2022. He has only 800+ innings in his career and is 30 years old. He is a bull - I still don’t know how he has come back from injuries like he has. I would possibly give him 5 years because I suspect he ages well and he has been really overall consistent since taking over as a mainstay in the rotation. With his stuff he can lose 3-4 mph and still be effective. I personally think the Yankees are taking a real risk with Fried. If the young pitchers do really well this season, maybe the Astros let him walk - we will see.
Rangers are so hard to gauge - every three or four years their bats click and they get enough pitching to make life hell for the Astros.
LHH FA OF: Verdugo Winker Heyward Gamel Sheets LHH OF potentially available in trade: B Lowe W Abreu Yastrzemski Mullins S Brown J Lowe Wade O’Hearn McCarthy A Thomas K Carpenter Yoshida Donovan Nootbar Marsh Grisham Larnach Fraley Kjerstad Melendez Kelenic Moniak Suwinski
I'm betting the league views Fried as more of a sure thing to handle the top of their rotation compared to Framber. 5 years max is what Framber will get and if he comes back to the Astros it would be no more than a 4 year deal. I fully expect negotiations on an extension to be brought up some time during the season. Oh and every one is scared of his last 4 playoff games the past 2 seasons (0-4 8+ ERA, on one of the biggest stages). His meltdowns is what cost the Astros a WS in 2023 (we would've beaten the DBacks). The pitch clock exposed him and he hasn't shown he can adjust.
I hate that the rangers have such a great lineup. They will be able to bludgeon their way to a bunch of wins. Their SP talent is definitely strong, but health dependent. Their pen is weak and I am hoping it leaks like always. Did not like them getting Garcia in the pen.
Santander is still not signed is he? How does it work with a second signing of a player with a QO attached? Astros would lose 3rd & 6th round picks?
I have a hard time believing we go 0-3 in trying to sign Tucker, Bregman, Valdez. We will sign Framber long term.
Not unless Crane changes his philosophy. It would just be my luck that he finally changes his philosophy on a STARTING PITCHER who then ends up missing a season and a half with TJS and then a few more IL stints and ends up missing half of his starts over the course of his 7 year contract. Extend hitters. Use pitchers when they're cheap then let them someone else pay for their injuries.
One of GM Gerry Hunsicker's mantras from back in the 90's was: "develop pitching, trade it for hitting" It worked (not WS ring worked, but it worked)
The current regime has nailed the first half. Still waiting to see the second half come to life - even the prospects they have traded have been hitters.
Fried has put up 9 more WAR and has a better era and FIP over a similar amount of time and innings pitched. Framber will get a nice contract, but not necessarily the level of Fried’s. I hope they extend him. You can’t have too much pitching and consistently hitting 180-200 innings pitched with an ERA between 3 and 3.5 is someone you build a rotation around. You can’t find a corner outfielder or third basemen more easily than a number 1.
Then again, the Astros have found/developed pitching more than any other area. Every year, we seem to produce another Blanco or arighetti. Luis Garcia for cheap. Cristian Javier. Signing Charlie Morton and turning him into a monster. Kikuchi. Cole. JV. Hell, even Brad peacock, Chris Devinski and Will Harris. This pipeline of cheap controllable pitching has provided the cushion for extensions and even failed FA signings. It remains to be seen how much losing Oz Campo hurts us in the next decade. Hitting on Correa, LMJ, Tucker and Bregs were foundational and culture setting, no doubt. But lots of teams hit on top 5 picks (albeit not necessarily at that rate or quality). But that door is closed to us, short of another tank job, and even then, much harder now. The pitching scouting and development pipeline must continue. It is our signature advantage.
Couldn’t agree more with everything you’re saying. One area I think I’d like to see our drafting philosophy change, I’d like to take some more chances on high school bats in the first round of the draft. For a while now we’ve been a college-bat-heavy team in terms of first round of the draft. While we had guys like Bregman, Correa, LMJ, Tucker, Springer, Altuve all in their prime it made sense to go after more established players that seemingly wouldn’t take as long to develop and contribute at the MLB level, but also probably don’t have as high upside. Regardless of the actual results, it made sense as a philosophy. But now that a lot of that superstar talent has left, and you’re still a very good MLB roster, you’re seeing a lack of true top end talent in the minors. I’d like to see us take some high school bats early in the draft a little more often, while still being college heavy rounds 2/3 and later. Ultimately I trust the Astros scouting and development pipeline, because they’ve proven to be truly elite in this area. But going HS bats early does give you a shot at hitting the lottery and really getting a next superstar level bat that we haven’t had in the system in a while.
Did they make some other moves I’m not aware of? How did gaining Pederson and a reliever while losing Lowe improve them?
2023 Chas would solve a lot of problems for us. Heck, even an average of the first 3 years would be pretty darn good.
