How do you figure? Goldy has already declined significantly the past two years following his 2022 NL MVP award. OPS+ went from 177 to 120 to 98 last year. They'd be lucky to get an average year out of him. It wouldn't be surprising to see him to be the Yankee's Jose Abreu.
The max risk of Goldschmidt’s contract is $12M. The max risk of Walker’s is $60M. Both players are in their mid 30’s. Yes, Walker is likely to be better than Goldschmidt in 2025. But there’s a ton more downside to Walker, and not much upside.
I would have been okay with either but there is a reason Goldy got what he got- there are genuine concerns about his bat. He could bounce back or the decline could continue.
There's a big difference between a 37-year-old whose bat has shown considerable decline and a 34-year-old who hasn't shown any, yet. Goldy at 34 was a MVP, but at 36 was bad. Walker at least constitutes a theoretical improvement in the lineup for the next three years. A guy like Oldy Goldy is a decline from what we've already have at the position, and likely to continue getting worse. It would have been setting $12.5m on fire. This team needs real hitters in 25, not guys who used to hit. They're carrying 3 bad hitters in the currently constructed lineup as is, which is too many.
There’s a theoretical case that Goldschmidt will outhit Walker in 2025. Walker cost $60M plus a $1M penalty in international signing and a 2nd and 5th round pick. So in real value cost his contract is closer to $80M/3yrs. Thats a steep price with a lot of risk for a guy who has never posted a 4 fwar season and is 34. I trust this front office, I’m cool with the Walker signing. But based on what info I have access to, I would rather have seen Houston sign Goldschmidt for $12M/1yr than Walker for $60M/3yrs + 2nd rd pick + 5th rd pick + $1m in international bonus pool.
There’s a theoretical chance that Singleton outhits Walker. In fact, imo a better chance than Goldschmidt of doing so. Either scenario probably involves regression by Walker rather than a sudden skills improvement from Big Jon or Goldy reversing his natural aging process. Father Time is undefeated. We needed to try to improve the lineup and Walker is an attempt to do so. Signing Goldy would have just been paying money for the name of a formerly good player. We cant go cheap at every spot and still win.
Feel free to substitue "Mrs Lincoln" and "the Play" if that will lessen the damage to your delicate sensibilities.
Whoa. That’s STEEP, especially considering it includes an opt out. I am glad Houston isn’t taking on that deal.
What does this sentence even mean? There's a theoretical case that Mauricio Dubon hits 60 home runs next year, doesn't mean anyone should take it seriously.
With Bregs and Tucker gone, I think we had to err on the side of a surer thing. Walker is a badly needed fifth dangerous bat that Espada should be able to pencil in every day. A Goldy bust would be a disaster, not necessarily financially, but for competing in 2025. That’s why I was against the Arenado move as well, unless there was another move to lengthen the lineup.
