I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros rescinded the 6/156m offer after the Tucker trade and signing Walker. Bregman is a better defensive player than Paredes, but Paredes may end up being a better offensive player for much less money. Tucker is the much more difficult replacement. Walker over Singleton will make up some of the difference between Tucker and McCormick(?) but we're talking about a guy that was headed toward top 2 or 3 MVP talk before the injury. If we could sign or trade for any of Santander, Teoscar, Luis Robert Jr., or Lowe we would be a better offensive team next year and still have one of the best rotations in the league.
I'm started to feel better about the team after pivoting to Walker. That 6/156m was a fair deal for Breggy considering he's obviously starting to fall off. I may be wrong but it feels like he struck out more than ever this past season to pump up his slugging numbers, sometimes at the cost of the team. The bone spurs in his throwing arm that required surgery is also a concern. I've heard the Red Sox don't want to go past 4 years for him and Devers is not interested in moving to first base. I think their is a reason we haven't heard any other offers besides the Astros. Either his market is more dire than they thought or Boras is keeping everything under wraps. All I know is they lost a lot of leverage today with Astros out of the picture. I really do hope he gets his bag though. It would be pretty heart breaking for him to end up leaving to another team for a similar contract the Astros offered.
He did strikeout more than the past several years, but that was still only 13.6% vs the MLB average of 22.6%
the slow starts and the pop-ups were the most frustrating to me. I personally think Paredes is going to outperform him offensively over the next 3 years. We are a plus OF away from being a much better team than last year and we won't have to wait a month and half or 2 months for our 3B to start hitting.
Alex Bregman was trying to earn a big payday last season, I will never not be convinced of that. In doing so he got away from what made him good. His chase rate, while still great, was the worst since 2017, and his general swing% was the highest since his rookie season. He didn't swing and miss any more than usual. The only thing different about his overall offensive profile was that he was less willing to take walks, he was trying to mash. I suspect whoever pays him will get the traditional Bregman versus the 2024 version. A decline will happen eventually, but I doubt last season was any evidence of an age related decline.
He will also benefit more than maybe any player in the league if (when?) the umpiring gets fixed. All of those BS calls he would get when he takes on 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 will flip a lot of his outs into walks if there's an automatic strike zone or challenge system.
This is a very underrated part of his future. He hasn't been a 6 WAR superstar in several years, but he has been a 4+ WAR guy his entire career (outside 2020-2021 injury issues) I also see his regression bring very very gradually and this is another reason why. It would not surprise me at all if he was still a 2+ WAR player in 8-10 years.
It will be part of MLB when age regression drops his value from other skills. It won't be much, but it will be some and it will make a difference. When do umpires start getting frustrated at being wrong and corrected and start ejecting guys for super minor other things? Wait, they already do that.
He was also taking injections and playing through stuff despite eventually needing procedures/surgery. He would have unlikely done those moves and rushed back if not for trying to ensure payment. He’s actually played in a ton of games the last 3 seasons (plus playoffs)… has to be up there close to the top of the league. That can’t be sustainable, can it?
That actually will stop happening, there will be no need to argue. What will happen is they will stop calling those gift strikes on 2-0 and stuff.
Here is where we are today...without the core WAR SS Correa (3.7) - Pena (4.1) CF Springer (1.1) - Meyers (1.7) RF Tucker (4.7) - McCormick (-0.6) 3B Bregman (4.1) - Paredes (0.4) SP Cole (2.0) - Brown (2.6)
Bregman was in his contract year where its time to knock em ded. He worked out and stopped drinking dr peppers. He was ready for 2024 to prove it and reap the reward. I am kinda glad from a win loss 2025 perspective that it did not happen for us and he will find another home. To me I can see a big contract followed by a decent aggravating drop in offensive output and production. Stay tuned.
