I think the return would be somewhere in between what Snake and you said. He is an expensive rental and had a terrible year. I doubt Toronto moves him unless they sign Bregman which is probably a long shot. Maybe Blubaugh and Dicenzo instead?
My point is if he isn't worth Dezenzo and Garcia, I understand. But if that's the case they hold him and hope he has a good first half and try again at the deadline or hold him if they are in it. They have no motivation to trade him for an expensive utility player and an unestablished RP with no options. Doesn't really move the needle.
A Luis Robert Jr. trade would tie the roster up with a bow. Chicago would likely be wise to hold onto him until the deadline and hope he has a monster 1st half. But if they didn’t, he’s not going to bring back the kind of haul he otherwise could, maybe something like: Astros get: OF Luis Robert Jr. White Sox get: OF Luis Baez P AJ Blubaugh IF/OF Shay Whitcomb OF Pedro Leon That’s 3 of Houston’s top 15 prospects and 4 of their top 20, arguably 3 of their top 10. So it’s not a pupu platter. It gives them 3 major league ready players to plug into their barren roster. And all 4 prospects have very high ceilings, so there’s a chance for a home run. For the Astros, it’s a chance at 3 years control over an up the middle superstar level talent without giving up any of their top 5 prospects.
And at a very reasonable 15/20/20 for the next 3 years. I think it's a no-brainer for the Astros, but agree not sure the White Sox will bite. Other teams might trump the offer as well.
Updated Astros rank by position per fangraphs: C: 9 1B: 6 2B: 4 SS: 21 3B: 7 RF: 22 CF: 21 LF: 15 (aided by Yordan’s allocation) DH: 2 SP: 14 RP: 5 Astros are a Dezenzo/Melton spring breakout away from having a dominant team.
How much would yall pay for 88 games of Luis Robert? (you know he's gonna be hurt, right?) Is he better than 88 games of Peak Jason Lane? I say no, do better.
I remember 20-25 years ago when they banned DiMarini(?) softball bats in our level of softball, because balls got hit too hard. Danger hard. Now all you need is $300 for ******* topshelf softball bat.... https://www.demarini.com/en-us/slowpitch/bats
Hypothetical remainder of offseason: Out: Spencer Arrighetti, Ryan Pressly, Shay Whitcomb In: Justin Verlander, Hector Neris, Brandon Lowe Roster: 2B Altuve LF Lowe DH Alvarez 1B Walker 3B Paredes C Diaz CF McCormick RF Dezenzo SS Pena Bench: Dubon, Caratini, Meyers, Singleton/Hummel/Trammell Rotation: Valdez, Brown, Blanco, Verlander, Garcia, Wesneski Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, Neris, Scott, Ort, Whitley, Dubin/Montero/McCullers/Sousa
Looks like in your idea Stros sign Verlander and Neris and trade Whitcomb, Arrighetti and Pressly for switch hitting 30 year old Brandon Lowe from Tampa Rays. He gets us our LF and leftie bat. Keep up the good work, Snake!
I would really love to have Lowe. Spencer would be hard to lose. I have very little faith in Verlander being able to take his innings. Wonder if they would take one or two of our Minor League pitchers instead.
The market for good controllable hitters is very hot. Unfortunately if Houston is going to add a good bat via trade, it’s going to hurt. Giving up 5 seasons of Arrighetti for 2 seasons of Lowe is a likely loss on paper, but I think that’s the type of return that Tampa could/would demand. I think despite the cost it’s another move that plays to the Astros strengths. I like Arrighetti but there is plenty of reasons for optimism that Houston can fully replace him between a 3rd tier free agent (Verlander, Morton, Heaney, etc.), Wesneski, McCullers, Javier, and the high ceiling arms projected for AAA (Blubaugh, Ullola, Gordon, Gusto, Kouba, and even France), not to mention the guys in AA who could break out (Pecko, Hicks, Santos, Fleury, Dombroski, Knorr).
