Saw an interesting note in an article about Smith. He received a $5.1M bonus from the Cubs when he signed. The ENTIRE Astros draft bonus pool last year was $5.9M. So basically the Astros acquired the talent equivalent of their entire 2024 draft minus Forcucci by getting Smith, in terms of signing bonus dollar value.
Great point. It is very well known that Brown was chosen because of his scouting and farm building background with the specific priority of rebuilding the talent pool in the feeder system. The more I see and read about Smith, the happier I am. It's been a long time ( Tucker?) since this team has had this type of promise in a position player.
Jeremy Pena is the only position player prospect in the last 5 years I can think of who might’ve been as highly regarded as Smith, but I would say that Smith is rated higher than Pena was. So yeah, in the Golden Era, here’s where I’d rank the position player prospects (in terms of how high they were rated as prospects, not how they ending up panning out): Carlos Correa Alex Bregman Kyle Tucker George Springer Cam Smith Colin Moran Jon Singleton Yordan Alvarez Jeremy Pena Drew Gilbert AJ Reed Domingo Santana Derek Fisher Yainer Diaz Daz Cameron Jacob Melton Brice Matthews Pedro Leon Delino DeShields Jr. Korey Lee Honorable Mention: Colin Barber, Freudis Nova, Walker Janek, Zach Dezenzo, Ryan Clifford, Abraham Toro, Seth Beer, JD Davis, Ramon Laureano, Teoscar Hernandez, Brett Phillips, Jonathan Villar, Jio Mier, Ariel Ovando, Miguelangell Sierra
I was only doing position players. Forrest Whitley Mark Appel Frances Martes Lance McCullers Jr. Hunter Brown Franklin Perez Jordan Lyles Jarred Cosart Mike Foltynrwicz JB Bukauskas Vincent Velasquez David Paulino Jairo Solis Josh James Bryan Abreu Cionel Perez Michael Feliz Luis Garcia Jose Urquidy Corbin Martin Honorable mention: Josh Hader, Cristian Javier, AJ Blubaugh
Out of boredom, the top 30 highest rated prospects of the Golden Era (2011-present): Carlos Correa Alex Bregman Kyle Tucker Forrest Whitley Mark Appel George Springer Francis Martes Cam Smith Colin Moran Jon Singleton Yordan Alvarez Lance McCullers, Jr. Hunter Brown Jeremy Pena Franklin Perez Drew Gilbert AJ Reed Jordan Lyles Jarred Cosart Domingo Santana Derek Fisher Mike Foltynewicz JB Bukauskas Vince Velasquez Yainer Diaz Daz Cameron Jacob Melton David Paulino Brice Matthews Pedro Leon
Cool. I don't have any subscriptions to places like Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. (I'm a poor boy trying to get by) It would be cool to pick as many legitimate sites who have rankings and make a ranking from overall averages. I may do that from as many free sites as I can find.
Fangraphs and mlbpipeline is free and easy access I know BA and ESPN also have a list each.year for each team. I like Apollo buy haven't seen it recently. What other ones?
BA’s org top 10’s and top 100’s can usually be found without a sub, you just can’t read their write-ups. An average of BA, BP, Fangraphs, and MLB.com has gotta be enough.
Why do you say that Matthews wasn’t the best player available? He had moved up boards in the days before the draft and teams were looking to take him at the end of round 1. If the Astros wanted him - they had to draft him where they did or they lost out on getting him. He wasn’t not viewed as a “surprise” of “stretch” choice by the Astros. Yes - Brown has been a fan of Brice since early in high school. There is no question he is and was a Favorite of Brown. However - Brown had prior relationships and opinions of a number of players that he drafted, including guys like Harris, Grissom, Strider and a few others. I don’t know how good Matthews will be, it’s possible he never makes enough contact - but the tools, especially bat speed and wrists are extremely loud and standout… it’s apparent why a scout could fall for him. Brown does have favorites - the kid (Smith) we got from the Cubs is another favorite of Brown. Why do you think it is a problem? I’m not saying you are wrong, I am genuinely curious.
Count me in the Ullola camp. His command needs to improve but he is improving at it and his stuff and upside is the best in the system… his ceiling is a #1-2 starter.
Wow I didn't realize he had this ceiling. I always thought of him as a 7th/8th inning guy that had the possibilty to be a closer if he developed. Do you think he could be the 7th inning guy next season? If he could become this, that would solve a lot of issues.
He is similar to Abreu in someways. I think he will need at least another year in the minor leagues. They have promoted him recently even though he walks too many guys. He will need a year to “catch up” and let his control come. His stuff is magnetic, his fastball has lots of late movement and when he throws it naturally and effortlessly- it’s 96-99 and explodes in the zone. His slider is also very hard to pick up too and can break in and out. Guys last year hit .150 against him, he just walked a ton but even then his WHIP was around only 1.00 I think they do everything to let him start because of his upside. They will work with his mechanics (which are improving) and just get him more experience…. Teams last year were asking for him in trade.
Brown was more than a fan of Mathews before the draft. In my opinion he considered Mathews to be a protege. I personally viewed him as a surprise and compared to the players still available at the time I believed he was certainly a stretch. He was chosen based Browns prior relationship to him. I think you are right about Smith and I am probably not as high on him as most here. I think he is near to the top prospect in the Astros farm system, but I wouldn't call him their best prospect as most here do. The reason I think it is a problem is that I expect the GM to choose based upon careful consideration of the available players talent and skill set. In the case of Mathews, I believe better players where clearly available. In the case of Smith, I believe he is clearly a good third base prospect and that a third base prospect was the last thing we needed after bringing in Parades. I hope that clears up what my position is. Certainly opinions vary.
