In argument for “in the middle” lots of folks are wrongly posting that half in and half out is the worst place to be in sports. Thats imminently true for EPL soccer as there are no playoffs. That’s imminently true for the NBA as the best team almost always wins a best of 7 series. That’s mostly true for the NFL, as mediocre teams that squeak unit he playoffs almost never win the Super Bowl. Baseball, however, is it one of those sports. The best team in the league loses 2 out of 3 all the time to the worst team in the league (or gets swept- look at all the dynasty astros teams that have been swept). Aces get cracked in the playoffs all the time. A team gets hot and goes from middling to champs. In the 21st century alone I think we’ve seen the best team in the league win what/ 4 or 5 World Series (if best team in the league is defined as best record). If you want to talk about a meh team winning it all here is off the top of my head since the turn of the century… 02 Anaheim 03 Marlins 06 cards 11 cards 13 Red Sox 15 Royals 19 nationals 21 Braves 23 Rangers. also- the giants won 3 in 5 years. None of those teams won the division I don’t think and they averaged like 91 wins or something. You could say all 3 were meh but the fact that they did 3 in 5 years I will argue maybe they were uniquely built for playoffs. that’s like 40% of the time a team sort of was mediocre and limped in and won it all. Way more from the barely qualified won than best record. Baseball is a sport where you want a chip and a chair because post season results are not indicative of team quality. It’s perfectly rational (especially now that there is a lottery) to do enough to win 87 games, get in the playoffs and hope you catch lightening in a bottle. It’s probably smarter than trying to build a 110 win juggernaut from a dollars and cents perspective. I expect this Astros roster to ultimately go into the season with a range of wins from 85-100 with the computer dorks settling on about 90-92 after running all their regression models. Thats good enough to be in line with all those World Series winners I just mentioned.
I get what you’re saying but sometimes records don’t tell the whole story. Like how the ‘19 Nationals were the best team in baseball for the final 4 months of the season after getting their team healthy. That’s just one example though. Yes, baseball isn't nearly as predictable as NBA and NFL. Strangely, hockey has a ton of upsets in the playoffs. At least it used to.
One could say the we were the best team the final 4 months of last season. Or close to it. Hopefully we are in the mix again. And then we get hot.
There's a lot more "luck" involved in baseball. I don't watch a ton of hockey, but from what I've watched, that's not surprising - some of the goals absolutely have some "luck" involved.
There was something missing last year and in ‘23. Not sure exactly what but it’s felt like a grind since our ‘22 title.
Yeah, what was missing is our team when playing at MMP in the playoffs. Maybe they will be different in Daiken Park.
He doesn't want to be here because he doesn't think this dumpster fire of a roster can win. Can't really blame him....
Right - which is why he wants to play for the Angeles. The Astros have work to do but they aren’t a dumpster fire.
This is like the entitlement of people complaining about the United States being a 3rd world country. Is it perfect, no, but Astros fans have long forgotten what an actual roster dumpster fire looks like. You would think the Astros won 75 games last season.
Relative to the last 8 years this roster is a dumpster fire, but fair point about the Angels. I guess he would rather lose in Southern California. The Astros had Bregman AND Tucker AND Kichuchi..... they got swept in the Wild Card round. Yes, a wild card team can get hot and win the World Series but this is not going to be the 107 win team we all want. If they aren't resigning Bregman I would prefer they go with the lower tier of free agents that don't have a qualifying offer. I don't want to give up a 2nd round and 5th round pick plus a million bucks in international money for Christian Walker, Santander, or Teoscar. I would rather go with Goldschmidt and Verdugo. Then if the season turns into a turd they can trade Framber, Pressly, etc, etc at the deadline and go with a youth movement the last 2 months of the season.
Kikuchi won 5 games for us, did not pitch in the postseason. Tucker was hurt for half the season and was a big negative in the postseason. He would literally be replacing Bregman. We're also hopefully going to have Luis Garcia & LMJ back (I know people doing LMJ ever staying healthy, but I think he has 1 more healthyish year in him). Unless you are playing for the Dodgers, every team has flaws even when healthy. Personally, I'd much rather pay Bregman over getting Arenado. If Bregman's contact becomes a drag, at least I'll have 2 WS to look back at and say he deserved every penny.
My current free agent top 10 targets (in order): Bregman Burnes Flaherty Pederson Verdugo Kepler Polanco Goldschmidt Santana Morton I do not want the Astros paying big money to a defensively limited player over 30 with a QO attached, so that nixes Walker, Santander, and Hernandez.
Which of these players are FAs willing to sign a 1/2 year deal, so the Astros do not have to go "all in"?
Everybody under Flaherty. Bregman and Burnes will get near $200M. Flaherty will get a big contract. Pederson has a case for 3 years but will likely only get 2 (or even just a big 1 year deal). All the other guys will be looking at 1-2 years under $30M total value.
