Easily Framber, who has just a tick less trade value than Tucker did. Arrighetti has high trade value, probably in line with a prospect ranked in the middle of a Top 100. Blanco also probably has good trade value, although slightly less than Arrighetti due to his age and lesser pedigree/raw stuff. Garcia has almost no trade value until he shows he is healthy.
The other side of the coin is that this team just doesn't seem to be talented enough to make a run, with the current starting outfield and 1B. Now, we could sign a legitimate star to one of those positions. Odds are we won't. But even if we do, there will still be some major holes in the lineup. The best way to shore up at least two of those positions is by dealing Framber, who is likely going to walk at the end of the season anyway. And if Framber gets injured in the first half, then you will have no playoffs, no assets from trading him, and even bigger holes to fill next year.
Added the last season's age above. For those demanding, that the Astros pick up a solid MLB bat ... or two ... or three, the current projected OF is both young and cheap. The projected wRC+ is not awe inspiring ... but ... the younger players in the above group need to be given a real chance into becoming an average or above average everyday MLB player. These are the type of players (cheap and young) that are needed for playoff team roster construction, like the value Chas provided when he did not suck. Even though the Astros are looking for MLB bats, I think that they must give ABs to some of the above younger players, to figure out if any of them can become a playable everyday MLB player ... or even an above average MLB starter. Another consideration is that there is a non-zero chance that the 2025 Astros will struggle to play 500 ball and to make the playoffs. The Astros may want to mid-season switch gears from a playoff bound team to a rebuild team. At that point any bats added this off season and any soon-to-be FAs will be traded for prospects. In this case, the above OFs will get their chance.
Blanco and Arrighetti might have the most controllable WAR among the four. The trick will be for the Astros to get another team to pay the full bill for that WAR. None of the four are untouchable.
I'm not against trading Framber, but if they get 2 above avg MLB ready young guys for Framber I'll be surprised. I would try to trade Framber to the Cards for Nootbar and a top prospect. Then sign Walker and trade for Robert. Crane has the money to do this and add a SP3.
I agree that the young guys need an opportunity to determine which guys are dudes and which are AAAA. The problem is that there must be a balance between that and established above average MLB OFers. Right now the OF simply doesn't project to produce enough to give this team a reasonable chance to compete. It's unreasonable to have this many young and not established guys at the same time.
If they're true contenders they shouldn't have more than one young player in the everyday lineup. True contenders usually have proven bats in the lineup come playoff time. Stros fans aren't used to this because they're use to seeing Meyers/Singleton/Caratini in the regular playoff lineup. Yuck
We have to make a move to establish a more reasonable floor for what this outfield can be. Right now the floor is worst outfield in the league. We have to rebalance that in some way to hedge against the young guys not taking the next step or bouncing back.
As long as the Astros are in an incredibly weak division like the Texans are... we better be playoff contenders.
Even with Tucker hitting at an MVP level to start the season, this team was dogshit because the pitching wasn’t holding up their end. The season turned around when the pitching stabilized…. And then this team went on a run once they acquired Kikuchi, which single-handedly helped them secure a playoff spot. Pitching is still going to be the key. If they have other needs at the deadline (and Garcia, LMJ, Brown, Spencer, Blanco all stay healthy and all are performing excellent), you can consider trading Framber. My biggest concern is that the decision to trade Framber right now is more of a salary dump that happens to get assets back…. Yes, this team is currently expensive (for regressing results), but Crane/et.-al should realize this is what happens when you don’t have younger/cheaper STAR-type players develop. And overpaying for a closer doesn’t help either. Or just blow it all up… that includes no Altuve, Yordan as well. Houston supports winning baseball with the best of any big market city… but the powers that be will realize that Houston doesnt come out in droves to watch meh baseball teams (unless they have a franchise icon chasing numbers….)
A lot of the players and moves the Astros want to make are dependent on other players signing or being traded. Most likely nothing happens on Arenado until Bregman signs. Bregman has been wrestling with what he wants to do supposedly. Walker thinks he can get an extra year and more money out of the Yankees if they miss out on Bregman. The Astros have offers out to several players and teams.
Arenado’s recent decline at his age should terrify any organization who just went through the Jose Abreu experience. The flip side of that POV is it’s a gamble an organization might take as a “more affordable option” for salary cap reasons…..I guess….but it’s definitely a risky and desperate maneuver. Other than that….as Nook alluded to above, doesn't sound like much “new” to discuss as long as Astros remain in play for Bregman. The question is whether that’s an argument for moving on from Bregman before the free agent cupboard is dry……but of course if you have no intention of spending in that cupboard in the first place, then the Bregman situation dragging on provides cover now and excuses later
To me there’s a clear hierarchy of players teams are working through. Soto was the first piece and everyone knew nothing major was getting done until he signed. Now that he’s off the market it breaks down like this, in terms of implications for the Astros: 1. Burnes/Bregman. These guys are getting $200M and that massively impacts payroll flexibility. No other major free agents are likely to sign until these 2 players sign. I’m surprised they haven’t signed yet, and it could be the players are either not getting the offers they expected, are conflicted about accepting the offer from a team they didn’t want to play for, or have had surprises in their medicals that will tank their market. These players will either be dramatically overpaid by a team desperate to sign a star after missing out on Soto, or dramatically underpaid by overplaying their hand and getting greedy to the point that teams moved on and their market tanked (bad agents). 2. Bellinger, Arenado, Walker, Alonso, Santander, Hernandez. These guys are all waiting on Bregman to sign before reviewing BAFOs. My guess is they’ll sign (or be traded) within a week of Bregman signing. The free agents in this tier are likely to be overpaid by teams that missed out on Soto and Bregman and the ace SPs. 3. Kepler, Verdugo, Bell, Winker, Polanco, Goldschmidt, Canha, Santana, a few others. The fringe regular crowd will likely have to sort itself out quickly between Christmas and Feb 1. This is the group where teams will likely find value if they’ve done their homework and been patient. If Bregman doesn’t sign by Friday I will really start to wonder if there’s something about his elbow or hamstring or back that is showing up in the medicals and keeping the offers down. I also wonder why Houston hasn’t been connected at all to Alonso. He’s the closest Houston can probably come to replacing Tucker’s offense. I’d be totally fine with the Astros offering him that $156M/6yrs it offered Breggy.
I am also thinking that a bunch of teams are playing it cautious because committing to this year's class may mean sacrificing a chance to go after the likes of 2025 free agents... and looking at the list, kind of surprised that Toronto isn't on tear down and rebuild mode...: The headliners here are Guerrero and Tucker -- two of the best position players in the game. Guerrero will be just 26 years old when he’s eligible for free agency at the end of the 2025 season, while Tucker will be 28. Bichette, Schwarber, Arraez, Ozuna, Realmuto and Suárez are some of the other notable position players in this class.
Blue Jays are in a tough spot. Tough to know what to do in the most competitive division in the league. They’re not the Rays so they can’t justify a constant underdog route, but they can’t spend with NY and Boston. They’d probably be best imitating what Baltimore has done. Which means yes they probably should have traded Vlad, Bichette, Varsho, Kirk, Gausman, and Berrios last season.
I just wanna say, pretty much every AL playoff team last season except Baltimore fielded a roster with a ton of holes in it. Go look at the Yankees and Guardians current lineups, and tell me we're overmatched. The window keeps getting tighter on us, but fans are comparing us to imaginary contenders and past versions of ourself with deep lineups, not our actual AL competition.
I'm actually thinking teams may be swaying away from the Free Agency price now and looking to build within or pick up gems that need tweaking more so. If I'm an owner, no way I'm dreaming of overspending $300-$500 mil plus on one free agent no matter how good they are right now.
Yep, NL is getting stronger, but AL teams tried to compete with Astros while the Astros were a lot stronger and spent a lot of their assets already.
