At this point it is up to Crane - not even Brown. Offers have been made, there is a gap between the sides (Astros/Bregman). The Yankees are trying not to overpay, but they do want Bregman and have offered him more than the Astros. Philadelphia has interest as well. Basically there is Bregman and Arenado out there - and my feeling is teams are waiting to target Arenado after Bregman is gone. It is possible that Crane decides to hold onto Bregman on his own - but my feeling and what I have heard is that he is not very likely to stay in Houston because of the money difference.
I don't know what the last number offered was. My understanding is that at this point Crane is the one that has been primarily speaking to Boras. So within the organization it is likely only 2-3 people know what the actual last number is - and no one except 1 person knows what the actual max offer will end up being.
I think if I had to, I would give him 8 years and up to $240M Now, I would not be happy with more than 7 yrs and $210M, but I would not let him walk over the extra year or $30M. I see no world where the 2025 Astros are better without him. I think it is extremely unlikely that the 2026 Astros are better without him. By 2027 if Melton, Smith, Baez, Matthews, Brito, etc are really dudes, then they ( or hopefully some of them) will be close to their peak performance. Maybe the team is just as good with someone else in Bregman's place. I think having 9 guys better, or enough better that Alex is not better than at least 1 guy is highly unlikely. By 2028 it is too far away to judge. This team has Alvarez through 2028 and Altuve through 2029. They simply can not afford to waste any of those years by making a decision that reduces the chances of competing. If the current top prospects actually come through, then there will be many cheap star level players still in arbitration to offset Alex's salary in 2029-2031, etc.
It comes down to replacement value at other positions if you think about it. You take the extra $8.2mm per year and ask yourself if spent wisely and spread among other players, does it get you replacement value for the overspend on one player (especially when he hits his age 35 & 36 seasons). The formula from Luhnow’s years has worked remarkably. We began getting away from that formula when James Click wasn’t renewed and Jiff Cranewell signed two horrendous contracts. I’d love it if we went back to it.
On the other hand If Luhnow had signed Alex to a 10 yr $250M extension instead of 5 yr $100M we would not all be worried and wondering.
He was their scouting head. So he was the primary decision maker on who to draft, which players to target via trade, and how to develop their own prospects. He was probably involved in almost every significant transaction to some degree but if he has a weakness it is that he probay wasn’t the point man on which players to target in free agency and how much to offer them. And of course he wasn’t the face of the front office so his experience being interviewed wasn’t deep.
Put me in the disagree camp. You should try to put the best team on the field possible. There's no room to be sentimental. If Hakeem/Earl can be traded anybody can be traded. Holding onto Biggio/Bagwell until the bitter end is what lead to Luhnow's full rebuild with an assist from Wade. (Cosart trade)
It’s not that cut and dry. The 10yr/$250mm would have had opt outs at year 5 or 6 most likely and we most likely would have been in the same boat.
No way to know that. Opt outs weren't as popular 6 years ago and Alex had no leverage as a guy still pre-arb. Since opt outs protect the player at the expense of the team, there has to be leverage to get one. It's most likely that it would have been a straight 10 yr deal. But we do know that Luhnow and Crane were even more opposed to those than now so it's moot.
I can’t like this post enough. Biggio and Bagwell are all-time great Astros and will always be near the top of the list in Astros lore, but that is due to regular season success/longevity more than filling the trophy case with hardware. I’m worried about the Altuve signing because of his major regression last year in plate discipline. It seems he’s more focused on 3000 hits rather than improving his craft as a batter. He’s still an above average player at his position but I’m really hoping he doesn’t turn into Biggio 2.0 where we see him chasing a lot of breaking balls in the dirt these next four years. A good GM should always put value and competitiveness above loyalty.
Dezenzo will improve with more experience. Obviously Dana feels this way about 3B. Trading for Parades/Smith and already having Mattews is a sign of the way Dana sees things. My question is at some point in the next couple of years can Matthews take over for Pena at SS, particularly defensively?
Umm Bregman was 26 when he signed that contract. Players in their mid 20s have opt outs on long term deals. A-Rod had them. You most likely wouldn’t see opt outs for players signing 10yr deals in their age 29-31 seasons.
