Snell just got $182M/5yrs and he’s the age and level of player Framber should be next season. Houston isn’t offering Framber that contract. They should trade him if they get an offer similar to what they got for Tucker.
FA contracts for star players have risen like crazy the last few years. The Harper and Machado contracts of 2019 feel like bargains. Framber is going to get somewhere between Blake Snell and Max Fried money next year. The Astros don't have another potential star set for FA until at least 2029 when Brown and Diaz will get there. Lots can happen between now and then, but that's how it looks now. Bregman may be the last time Crane has a chance to keep a homegrown star for under $250M Extend Diaz and Brown now when you can keep the commitment under 6 years ( buy out 2 FA years) and it's a big value.
Eventually, the Astros will need to start handing out big contracts if they are going to be contenders. It is inevitable. That being said I wouldn't on Bregman, but I might on Framber. I think Paredes will be fine at 3b/1b for his contract and give Smith or another of our prospects time to develop for the spot. We need to make a move for at least one OF. A trade for Robert would be ideal. It would also coincide with Paredes contract and at only 20m a year is a bargain.
As a fan, I want Alex back. Trying to take off my fan glasses and view it from a more objective place, outfield is a bigger need. That said, this team has lost a lot of leadership. Alex was very prominent in Hunter Brown's improvement and Yusei Kikuchi's magical run in August and September. Where would the 2024 Astros have finished without those performances? Alex is still among the handful of players available who will improve this team in 2025. He also has attributes that will make his overall value age very well. Because of these things, they should be willing to go 7 years and be happy with the overall results when it's over. But I will say that if they don't get an above average OF ( at least 1) then they will have wasted 2025 because the chances of getting even MLB average production from that group are very slim and that's 1/3 of your total lineup.
This isn't exactly true. Arrenado is a goive first player so it's very unlikely that he ends up with negative value. He is a pull hitter so that likely makes him a bit better here than St.Louis with the bat but likely nothing special. What he does bring is veteran leadership which will be a big issue from losing Bregman. I think OF simply must be a bigger priority, but getting Nolan would be a pretty neutral move for me as long as St Louis and Colorado pay most of his salary, the prospect cost was negligible, and Bregman was not still available. 88
The one thing I really don't like about Nolan is his playoffs history. Out of 4 series he hasn't hit above .200 in any of them and his teams have gone 1-7 on those 8 games. Small sample size on games but a .143 playoff career OPS doesn't scream clutch. At least he doesn't strike out a ton
I think there is legitimate risk that this team may not see the playoffs again for a few years so that doesn't really matter.
Get an outfielder. Get two. Put a bandaid on first. Yikes this is a bad outfield. can Bregman play left? for goodness sake get an outfielder that can hit the ball a ways.
The Astros need 2 above average bats and 2 Top 100 prospects in order to have a complete contending organizational roster. They have about $30M to spend. Thats enough money to buy a good bat (Bregman). Dumping Pressly would get them enough money to fill out their lineup (say Kepler). Trading Framber would get them the prospects and free up $15M to buy a lesser SP (Heaney). 1B Paredes 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 3B Bregman* C Diaz RF Kepler* CF McCormick SS Pena LF Dezenzo/Whitcomb Bench: Dubon, Caratini, Meyers, Singleton/Hummel/Trammell Rotation: Brown, Blanco, Heaney*, Arrighetti, Garcia, Wesneski Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, Scott, Ort, King, Dubin, Whitley/Sousa/Montero/McCullers That roster plus a farm that features 7 of the top 150 prospects in the league is a great place to be.
I think he overachieved last year so 2 potential outcomes. 1) Somebody overpays based on 2024 and since he has never been any good outside of SD, it's a terrible contract. 2) He goes back to SD and is an all-star.
