Alex Bregman Bregman has a history of some injuries. One could project the next 4-5 years of 4+ WAR, 0.750+ OPS and 20+ HRs ... if healthy. At the mythical 8 million per 1 WAR, 32 million x 6 years (192 million/ 6 years) is likely the floor for Bregman's next contract. I suspects that the Astros will offer less and Bregman will sign for more. Year Age G WAR OPS 2019 25 156 8.9 1.015 2020 26 42 1.1 0.801 2021 27 91 2.1 0.777 2022 28 155 4.6 0.820 2023 29 161 4.9 0.804 2024 30 145 4.1 0.768
So last season I was critical of the Astros not spending on positions of need in the offseason saying the window was closing sooner than some thought.... now it's firmly welded shut.
That’s what make Altuve so special to Astros fans. Never bother to test the market. Get (money) with what he and his family happy with. Not chasing extra dollars. Definitely deserve a statue once his career is over. Forever Astros legend!!
I'm not sure that's fair. If they lost Tucker, Framber and Bregman and gained nothing back over the next year, I'd agree with you. But they have young talent on the roster, a superstar hitter in Alvarez, a deep pitching rotation and a lot of bad money coming off the books next year. If Dana does his job over the next few days, young players continue to improve and Crane pulls out his wallet for talent when he needs to, I don't see why this team couldn't be a playoff roster for several more years before a full, true rebuild occurs.
The most likely scenario is not being better, but it is possible. For example if the Astros trade for Luis Gil and he breaks out like he is capable of and then you potentially have a really nasty top of the rotation for a playoff push. Also - the Astros are actively shopping Pressly and Caratini. If the Astros lose Bregman, lost Tucker.... trade Pressly and trade Caratini, that opens up massive holes offensively, but it also opens up a lot of money. The Astros could then theoretically sign someone like Walker to play 1st, and still target another bat. Yeah - the Astros are aware that 2025 is their last "best" shot unless they sign their guys. They thought they had a 50/50 shot at Bregman and that isn't the case. The only "right path" is if Brown starts producing talent like he did in Toronto and Atlanta.
My gut tells me he signs here… Boras is doing his part, but there are too many MLB insiders still pointing the Astros to make this work. If he doesn’t, trading both Tuck and Framber is a no brainer. Brown needs to make his moves to improve this team for the long haul. I don’t know if he will get that opportunity because I still feel Jim is calling the shots.
Luis Gil only has 4 seasons of control left. If Houston trades Tucker to the Yankees, they need to include at least 2 other meaningful pieces with Gil.
Tucker would be 29 when that season starts and he hasn't shown to be a Soto type player (who is only 26). I can see over $320/mil easily for Tucker in 8 years if he has another solid injury-free season of 30 HRs and 100+ RBIs. $350 mil is the max
It's all on Jim Crane. If Crane is willing, then Alex stays. It's that simple. If Crane does not catch up to them and agree to what they are willing to do then he leaves. I'm actually encouraged by the Hader deal last year- Crane tends to rise up for stars.
Now the other chips should fall in the next 48 hours. If Houston doesn’t make at least 2 very significant moves before end of day Friday it will appear very likely Dana Brown and the Astros were not proactive about the offseason and were caught off guard by the market and by Bregman signing elsewhere.
