No. Not trading them is the mistake. Let's say Tucker brings back Bellinger and 4 of Cubs top 8 prospects Matt Shaw, Cade Horton, James Trianos, and Kevin Alcantara. Fangraphs projects: Tucker for 5.5 WAR Bellinger 2.1 WAR Shaw 2.7 Horton 1.5 (@200ip, let's say 1.1@150) Triantos 1.5 ( but we start him in 2026) Alcantara 0.4 ( but we start him in 2026) Shaw and Horton are ready and make opening day roster. Controlled - 2030 Triantos and Alcantara probably start in AAA and come up mid season so controlled - 2031. Also age progression - let's say 10% improvement until age 26 then level off until age 31. 2025: lose RF, add CF/1b, 3b, and SP -5.5 / +6.3 net + 0.8 WAR 2026: add inf and CF/RF +8.5 (6.4 ih Bellinger opts out) 2027; lose CF/1b +7.0 2028: +7.6 2029: + 7.8 2030: +7.8 2031: +2.8 Now, risk is always factored into these projections, but let's say Shaw and Triandos (the 2 highest projected WAR in deal) are complete busts, just to be extra fair. 2025: -2.3 WAR 2026: +3.8 (+1.7 if Bellinger opts out) 2027: +1.9 2028: +2.1 2029: +2.2 2030: +2.2 2031: +0.8 Also note that since he is furthest from MLB and therefore higher risk of bust, Alcantara's projection is quite low. He has at least 3 WAR ceiling. So even if the 2 best prospects in this deal bust and Bellinger leaves after only 1 season, this is a net positive for the Astros ( likely even in 2025). Adding young controllable talent is absolutely crucial for 2026-2031
Chandler Rome’s latest article: DALLAS — Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki and corner infielder Isaac Paredesare two players the Houston Astros are targeting in a possible trade for right fielder Kyle Tucker, sources briefed on the discussions told The Athletic on Wednesday. Talks are fluid, and the teams have exchanged a variety of names. Any Cubs package for Tucker, 27, likely would include prospects as well. Third baseman Cam Smith, Chicago’s first-round pick in 2024, is another player in whom the Astros are interested. Suzuki might be out of reach for the Astros. A league source said that the Cubs are highly unlikely to move him, and they seemingly prefer to deal first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger in a separate trade. But the Astros’ interest in Suzuki and Paredes signals the team wants to remain competitive even if it trades Tucker and loses free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, with whom they are negotiating. “Dana and I continue to talk and we’re making every attempt,” Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras, said Wednesday, referring to Astros general manager Dana Brown. “We know that Breggy plays really, really well there with a great group of teammates and remarkable history that few teams enjoy. We continue to talk about it.” The Astros could part with Tucker, who is eligible for free agency at the end of next season, regardless of what happens with Bregman. In the wake of Juan Soto’s record $765 million deal with the New York Mets, Tucker figures to command a contract of at least $400 million to $500 million. Astros owner Jim Crane has consistently resisted signing players to monster deals, which is why Bregman might be the next Houston star to depart. The New York Yankees and several other clubs also are pursuing Tucker, a three-time All-Star and former Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner. The Yankees might not want a repeat of what happened with Soto, for whom they gave up a major package, then lost on the open market. But they also are trying to return to the World Series and — in the wake of signing free-agent left-hander Max Fried — possibly could include American League Rookie of the Year winner Luis Gil in a package for Tucker, as first suggested by the New York Post’s Joel Sherman. Paredes, projected to earn $6.9 million in arbitration and under club control for three more seasons, is a notorious pull hitter who would be an ideal fit at Minute Maid Park. He could play third base if Bregman departs and first base if Bregman stays. The Astros made a strong bid for him at last year’s trade deadline, but the Cubs acquired Paredes from the Tampa Bay Rays instead. The Astros presumably want Suzuki, who is owed $38 million over the next two seasons, to replace Tucker in right field. Suzuki has a full no-trade clause, and his approval would be necessary to complete any deal. Tucker is projected to earn more than $15 million in his final year of arbitration. According to Fangraphs, he has accumulated 20.9 wins above replacement since becoming a full-time player in 2020 — fourth among outfielders only to Soto, Aaron Judge and Mookie Betts.
You get Gil, Rice, and Dominguez from the Yankees and then Framber to the Orioles for a deal headlined by Kjerstad and some pitching prospects. Sign Polanco to play 3B, or up your offer to Bregman. Altuve - 2B Dominguez - CF Alvarez - DH Diaz - C Rice -1B Polanco - 3B Kjerstad - RF Pena - SS Dezenzo - LF Brown, Gil, Blanco, Arighetti, Garcia, McCullers.
Hoping for a bidding war/feeding frenzy for Tucker and we get some great pieces for short-/long-term success!
Hard to imagine this team without Tuck and Breggy, but if it gets us Excellent young talent, I am all in. But please, not to the Yankees
Not me. I want what’s best for the Astros, short and long term. Get what we think it’s the best for our organization. Don't let hatred hurt our future.
2 seasons of Suzuki and 3 seasons of Paredes would be a great return for 1 season of Tucker. If that also included any one of Chicago’s top 7 prospects it would be a home run trade for the Astros.
I want Shaw and Hoerner included in the deal. A deal for Tucker has to hurt the team trading for him.
The Cubs farm is absolutely stacked with 8 Top 100 guys. Give me 2 of them + Belli and Paredes then leave town like a bandit. https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/top100/
Home runs don't count more if they land 100 feet past the fence or if they were one of Correa's homers that barely made it over. Without looking at salaries or stats in detail, this seems like a deal that doesn't get made in MLB any more with just Suzuki and Paredes (i.e., likely a home run if just those 2). Caveat: I don't pay much attention to the Cubs.
I don’t know. It would certainly seem to top what the Padres got for 1 year of Soto. We’ll just have to see. For me personally I don’t think it makes sense to trade Tucker unless they get an overwhelming return like that.
Have to factor in Dylan Cease here as well, considering Thorpe was one of the key pieces going to the White Sox for him. I think Washington was the real winner in the Soto Wars. Abrams and Woods are going to be hard to beat moving forward.
Nah. Move on from Bregman. You are resetting your payroll with only 2 bad contracts left with McCullers and an aging Altuve, there is no need to add another long-term deal with an aging vet to that list when you have Brown, Diaz, Pena, and Abreu coming up soon.
