Not sure. $8-10M a year, maybe? I've not seen him play 3B that I recall and really haven't seen enough from the bat to really watch videos of him to see if he's worth thinking of more than just as a 2B. Please take the number with a grain of salt.
Yeah I would peg him for something like $16M/2yr with potential bonuses and maybe an opt-out. Anything under $30M total guarantee is probably a pretty safe contract and anything under $12M guaranteed is a very good deal.
Highlighting Houston’s rotation depth: Spencer Arrighetti showed the ability to miss bats and quietly posted an excellent finish in 2024; over his final 13 starts, he pitched 76 innings with a 3.08 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. Ronel Blanco fired 167 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball in a breakout season. After a terrible April, Hunter Brown pitched like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Garcia could be ready for Opening Day after losing the ’24 season to Tommy John surgery. Before his injury, he was a quality mid-rotation starter. The same is true of McCullers, although his injury history over the past three seasons makes him difficult to rely upon. Javier could return mid-season. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024...-space-framber-valdez-ryan-pressly-trade.html
Cots has Astros at $228.2 now ( estimate) ($258.8 in 2024). Fangraphs' roster resource has them about $6M higher. It's mostly about estimated arbitration salaries. CBTs are $241, $261, $281, and $301 Probably not going to avoid going into it. 2nd tier penalties are very light, 3rd tier is extremely bad. Need to save $5M for trade deadline (in 2024 Kikuchi, Neris, Ferguson, Heyward, and Gamel totalled $4.5M) Opening day needs to be under $276M. Lowe +$10.5M Caratini in deal -$6M = $232.7 Bellinger +$26.25M Pressly in deal -$14M Cubs throw in $5M = $239.95M (Could be more than 5) Chas or Meyers traded -$2.2M est. Payroll = $237.75 Leaves $38.2M or ($32Mish by Fangraphs) to sign Bregman and add a BOR starter.
Is coming off of a terrible season making $10.5M He made $10.5 last year and had a terrible, injury riddled season. Mlbtraderumors predicted top 50 FAs ( all getting $7M+ in their estimation) and he didn't even make their honorable mention list. But so far everyone but Hasigawa has signed for way more than their prediction. I would say he could be had for 1yr/$8-10M or 1yr/$7-8M w/ a $7-8M option & $1M buyout.
I remember periodically checking in on the Mariners reddit throughout last season and regularly seeing Mariners fans complaining and trashing Jorge Polanco wishing they never signed him. For a team that as offensively futile as the Mariners that's saying something,
It would be fascinating to see Bellinger traded. His contract leaves its analysis very subjective. It’s either $32.5M/1yr (if Bellinger plays well and stays healthy) or $52.5M/2yrs (if he plays poorly and/or gets hurt). So the best case only holds about $10M in surplus value while the worst case holds $52.5M in negative value. So placing the odds of all the various outcomes in between will determine his trade value. I believe trades can include contingencies for future events, so maybe the acquiring team could require the Cubs to be on the hook for some money if Bellinger doesn’t opt out. Bellinger is an ideal fit for Houston’s roster because he is a lefthanded bat capable of hitting in the middle of the order and can play both CF and 1B, and he rarely strikes out. He would allow the Astros to platoon Singleton with Meyers or McCormick, which would elevate those 2 hitters to a viable middle of the order combo.
There are other options at 3rd, not a lot but there are some. Polanco, Bohm and a few others. None of them are stars but they are not bums either. The Astros believe that Ryan Pressly at worst has neutral value - if he wants to be moved, and the Astros have a targeted player in mind, it will happen. Same with Caratini. As for Bellinger - the Astros like his positional versatility and that he can play at two major needs. Suzuki also makes some sense for the Astros as well.
McCullers is a figment of our collective imagination. Whitley has pitched 3 innings of MLB. But I think you're right that the role is fillable in the org. Abreu is the obvious setup guy. King and Scott were both very good last season and they could fill the 7th inning role, depending on the need for a righty or lefty.
I just have a hard time seeing Bellinger on the Astros. He was vocal about the Astros cheating scandal. Said that Altuve stole Judge's MVP, that the Astros stole a ring from the Dodgers, that the apologies afterwards for cheating were weak. He called out Crane specifically as making a weak apology. I don't know that he'd want to be here or that they would want him after what he said.
You would think - but the Astros have tried to trade for him in the past and actually spoke to his agent about their interest - so I guess the idea is to let bygones to be bygones, or maybe Bellinger has been humbled some. He is a good fit positionally, and his bat is really deadly when he has his stance locked in, but he also can be terrible. Suzuki is an under the radar type guy that the Cubs are willing to move on from. He isn't really a 3-4 hitter but is good enough to contribute in most spots in the line up, I am pretty sure all of this is the Astros exploring the options I had posted I had heard about sometime ago - there are like 5 players that the Astros really want and believe are possible, and another 20-25 that they think are possible and would help them.
Only fans and the media still care about any of that. At the right price, Bellinger can help the Astros win. He is a perfect, on field, fit for their needs. How did the Yankees react to signing Marwin? How did the Dodgers react to Mookie, then J D., and then the film guy who was the scapegoat for Boston cheating them in 2018? MLB organizations don't care and players work things out (for the most part - Ramon Laureano, Joe Kelly. . .)
I think both would be really solid additions. It's weird to me the Cubs are so interested in moving Belli, given he delivered one good season and one mid season for them, and is still under 30.
The org may not care. He may not care, I don't know. Altuve may not care that his potential teammate says his MVP was undeserved. But Marwin, Mookie, J.D., etc. didn't call out the orgs they moved to. There was no personal animosity. Bellinger went over the top in his contempt for the Astros. Again, he may have changed his feelings and everything may have blown over in the past 4 years.
I'm not saying it's nothing, but I see those things getting past all the time. As @Nook said, maybe he has been humbled. He was still a young cocky guy ready to become the best ever back then. Maybe he isn't the same guy. Maybe he is.
They want to try and compete next year and they have Happ who said he will not waive his no trade clause, they have Armstrong in CF for cheap, they have Suzuki and Bellinger both as corner outfielders making like 42 million next year between them an they already have a first baseman that is cheap, So they feel they have a glut there - that they have needs in the rotations and pen, and that if they move one or both of their corner outfielders, they can pursue someone like Fried and a higher end pen arm.
I can’t believe I’m saying this but I’ve come around on bellinger. That’s assuming he’s not going to be a douche nozzle about everything and altuve is cool with it. He just makes too much sense position wise.
So much for trading Caratini to the Rays. $8M/1yr is a good value. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/rays-sign-danny-jansen-catcher.html
