Advanced NBA Stats - which ones do you believe in?

Neither of those are advanced stats. There's no calculation being done, they're both just "whats he score while you're on the court."

 

Okay, but +/- and net rating are counting stats. Regardless, if you want to call those advanced stats then we should establish a third category for stuff like EPM or LEBRON or whatever. Those types of stats are not in the same category, I guess you could call them “analytics” if you want. But +/- and net rating are much much closer to “points” or “assists” than they are to something like epm or bpm.

 

Whichever makes Sengun look better than the others do.

 

I think what i have generally noticed is most of the metrics seem to hate “dumb” players. Even good players who are super low IQ on the court, like klay or jaylen brown (2 random examples) will always rate poorly. My guess is that passing is the most highly correlated skill to hoops IQ, and those guys all suck as passers and that makes the metrics hate them. Brooks, klay, brown are all very mediocre by plus/minus and on/off as well historically.

 

I think we need one like SENGUN, just like LEBRON.

 

EPM

 

If you are a fan of Jalen Green, I would recommend not looking at advanced stats because I have looked at them and Jalen is basically a scrub based on every advanced metric. Meanwhile, Sengun, Tari and Amen are all amazing.

 

Situational Efficiency with No-Look Gymnastics and Unpredictable Nonsense

 

A good example of why i keep saying that on/off and plus/minus need to be taken with a massive grain of salt over small samples is gabe vincent for the lakers.

He has a 1.7 PER and a 34% TS. His win shares, vorp, bpm are massively in the negatives. However, the lakers offense and defense both have better ratings with him on the court. His net rating is almost a plus 4. Obviously it’s not reasonable to say that he has been a positive player, even though the on/off and stuff would tell you he has been.

 

A small child can sit back and pick a single stat and provide an exception to that stat. Obviously,
all of it requires context. That is no great revelation.

However, Plus/Minus is valuable for revealing the folks that don’t watch all parts of the game, especially the parts that are difficult to quantify. The folks that do not understand the immense value of players like Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, PJ Tucker, and Dillon Brooks. The “no stats” all-stars… On court impact is not ALL counting stats and efficiency.

 

I wonder why... because the Fakers lack pure playmaking guards ... Knecht, Dlo are all scorers or shooters.

Gabe is a semi scrub but his value is there bc of what that team lacks.

The league is currently lacking pure pass first PGs that can also shoot.

Why the Rockets are hopeful Reed Sheppard develops more playmaking.

 

Another example is like is Christian Braun. He’s had a good start to the season and is a good player. If you look at his on/off, Denver’s offense is over 20 points worse when he sits. That’s better than even Curry in his 15-16 peak. Why is that? Is Braun just the best offensive player ever? Of course not. He just happens to play with Jokic and anyone who plays their minutes with Jokic will look amazing by on/off or plus/minus. Just because something good is happening on the court doesn’t mean you are the one causing it to happen. The warriors defense was like 9 pts worse without curry in their 15-16 season. If he a Hakeem level defender? Of course not, he played his minutes with draymond, etc.

 

It’s just small samples variance, that’s all. Our offense drops by 5 pts when he sits. Do you think brooks is a great offensive player? Of course not, he’s by any reasonable measure terrible on offense. Extremely inefficient, can’t dribble or pass. His on/off is 4 points BETTER than senguns. Obviously he’s not better…..