2021 Rockets draft picks, the Win Share thread (a few noteworthy stats)

I enjoy looking at past draft classes as they start taking shape after a few years. I am particularly intrigued with the 2021 class.

For the draft class of 2021, If you look at WS (win share) Alpi comes in at #3, meanwhile Jalen Green slides in comfortably at #16. Both Alpi and Green have improved in leaps and bounds on the defensive WS in the two years that Ime has coached them. Alpi’s defensive win share is #2 in all of the NBA in the 2024. Some folks might scoff at Alpi as a defensive stalwart, but the metrics do carry weight.

However, Alpi was shunned a lot by Steven Silas in his tenure. So Alpi got ridden hard by Silas for whatever reasons he had. So his WS is probably less because he played a lot less than he deserved, you can look at his total minutes vs. other guys drafted in his class.

Therefore I looked at VORP (Value over replacement player). And Alpi comes in at #1 in his class. Coincidentally, Green comes in at #16 as well.

If after all is said and done, Alpi comes in as the #1 player of his class and Green slides in somewhere between 10-20th. I would say the class would be deemed extremely successful.

As of right now in the WS totals

Mobley - 21.1
Wagner - 17.9
Alpi - 16.6
Barnes - 16.1
@#16 Jalen Green - 6.4

Meanwhile for VORP

Alpi - 7
Barnes - 6.7
Mobley - 6.4
Wagner - 5.1
@ #17 is Jalen Green - .7

Those two guys are definitely keepers and worthy of being core players.

It may behoove people that the expectation of Jalen Green do not match to the production he offers the team. But his unique athleticism and basketball savant made him a worthy pick at the time. Even though he was drafted as a #2 offensive prodigy, under Ime he has blossomed into a formidable defensive player. Now for the shocker for most folks, in the 2024/25 season Jalen Green’s defensive Win share is currently #10 in all of the NBA. His offensive WS is pedestrian, but the man is a huge positive when he is in the floor.

 

Garuba has a cumulative 2.3 WS for his career.

Josh Christopher has a WS of .3


Unfortunately for Garuba he’s only played 6 NBA games since leaving the Rockets. And he hasn’t played one game in the 2024/2025 season.

Josh Christopher has not played one single NBA game since leaving the Rockets.

So win share is interesting, being an elite reserve role player can earn a player a respectably high WS. But if a guy establishes himself as a role player with a high WS, he’s following the game plan and he’s contributing to winning.

But make no mistake, the NBA MVP’s and Allstars generally have amongst the highest WS year after year. So if a guy has earned his coaches confidence, and he’s producing WS, it’s a great metric.