The problem is that the complete bats cost $100+M or 3 legitimate prospects better than the Astros have.
That would be a god awful trade for Houston. Abreu is a decent hitter under long term control, but he’s still a platoon bat limited to corner OF. You don’t trade an ace for that.
I'm simply asking what the value is and being open to an honest answer. Framber has 1 season and projects to get paid in the $18M range. At his expected production, and with the current SP market, there is some value there, but not as much as Astro fans think. Abreu has 5 years of control left, and won a gold glove in a 3.1 fWAR and 114 wRC+ season. Baseballtradevalues.com ( which I understand has its own biases and value issues) has: Framber $20.4M value Abreu $26.4M value
Values per baseballtradevalues.com Astros Yandy Diaz 21.2 Brandon Lowe 14.1 = 35.3 for Jacob Melton 17.7 Luis Garcia 7.8 Forrest Whitley 3.3 Victor Caratini 2.6 Alonzo Tredwell 2.7 A.J. Blubaugh 2.3 = 36.4
I agree. I just don't know of a better one ( or ANY other one). It also doesn't help that now they charge for most info. I would love to find a better one to use.
Unless Framber pouts because he doesn't have an extension - I see no reason to trade him. He is very durable - he plays hurt and usually plays well - he has been bad at times in the post season but he has also been very good - the Astros know what to expect from him and what his quarks are. It is probably best for Framber as well that he remains on the Astros and at some point they work out an extension with him - with his anxiety, I do not think he would do well at all being a team's big free agent signing and the fanfare that comes with that.
The ONLY reason I would want to trade Framber is if there is no/very little chance to extend him. Year after year, this organization is bleeding talent and depth. Letting 2 more stars leave and replacing them with comp picks (especially lower picks due to paying CBT tax) would continue that trend and once again lead to a very high likelihood of a lesser team in 2026. Based on the lack of lineup production and this organizations history developing starting pitching, I would trade Framber than Tucker. I think this team has a reasonable chance of competing without Framber, as long as another pitcher steps up and can fill his innings at a league average level. I think this team has a very small chance of competing in 2025 if they trade Tucker even if they may be better overall and from 2026+ But if there is a reasonable chance that Framber stays, you have to roll the dice on that.
3+ fwar players on 2017 roster: Altuve Correa Bregman Marwin Springer Reddick Peacock Morton Verlander 3+ fwar players on 2022 roster: Altuve Alvarez Bregman Tucker Pena Verlander Valdez Javier So each championship team had 5-6 position players and 3 pitchers post star-level numbers. The current 2025 roster projects have the following players posting 3+ fwar: Alvarez Tucker Altuve Pena Diaz Valdez Brown So Houston is one star level player away from being on par with the 2 teams that won rings; they have the money to address that. They’ll lose 2 next season, but should have the money to sign one. So really they need the farm to produce 1 star level player next season and they’ll stay on par with their championship run, in terms of star talent. Mapping 2017/2022/2025: Altuve/Altuve/Altuve Correa/Alvarez/Alvarez Bregman/Bregman/Diaz Marwin/Pena/Pena Springer/Tucker/Tucker Reddick/McCormick?/McCormick? Peacock/Javier/Blanco? Morton/Valdez/Valdez Verlander/Verlander/Brown
The reason to trade Framber and/or Tucker is so that you don't end up depending on an aging Carlos Lee, Mark Loretta, Darin Erstad and Woody Williams as your core and then fading into Bolivian as Mike Tyson says. I am quite sure everyone loves Framber and knows he is an excellent pitcher and would contribute greatly to winning this year. Just like anything else in life. Deferred gratification. The overall health in the long term might be improved if you trade one of them. Look what Tampa got for Chris Archer. That was a year and a half and a dumb Pirates team but also not as good of a pitcher.
I'm for keeping Framber unless there's a deal that knocks Dana's socks off. As long as the Stros have pitching the team will be contenders. Add a couple of bats this offseason. I would be happy with Lowe/Conforto but would be really happy with Lowe/Robert. A trade I would really like to see is a 3 team deal that could get Jack Caglione from the Royals. He's the kind of young cheap guy that has star potential. His bat and reminds me of Yanier's bat except he's a lefthanded version of Yanier.
I do not think Altuve is a slam dunk to get 3 WAR in 2025. In 2024 he had the most PAs he's had since 2016 but produced the smallest WAR per PA since 2013 (excluding that 2020 season we don't talk about) He will play as a 35 year old. His 2024 WAR was 3.4 and the typical age regression is 1/2 WAR per season. So that drops him to 2.9 if he can get 682 PAs again. If he gets 564 PAs, which was his average 2021-2023 that projects to 2.3. Furthermore, not all 3+ WAR players are created equal. 5+ WAR guys are way more valuable than 3+ WAR guys. Top 10 players WAR by season 2017: 7.7, 6.7, 5.0, 4.5, 4.0, 3.9, 3.9, 3.0, 2.8, 2.0 2022: 6.8, 5.6, 5.4, 5.2, 5.0, 4.6, 3.6, 3.0, 2.1, 1.4 2024: 5.4, 4.7, 4.5, 4.5, 4.1, 4.1, 3.4, 3.2, 2.6, 1.7 2024 simply isn't in the same class. You can say Tucker will add a 5+ WAR guy in 2025 but Bregam is gone and Altuve will likely have some regression. There needs to be several upgrades to get 2025 to even the 2022 level. Where are the 6+ WAR guys? Where is the lineup with 3-4 guys at 5+?
Not sure how that logic flows. If you understand that Houston’s 2024 was marred by incredible bad luck, then using 2024 data as the basis for an argument doesn’t make sense, and you can easily look to 2025 and see significant improvements in their top tier talent output. Tucker, McCormick, and Garcia are all guys with 3+ fwar seasons on their resume who could easily get there in 2025. Diaz, Brown, Blanco, and Arrighetti have all likely not had their career years yet. Look at the mapping I did that compares the top 9 players in 2017/2022/2025; where is the gap?
That's all fine and well But there are a very limited number of starting pitchers with the ability of Framber, very few Teams would be willing to give up significantly more than that to acquire one of them. He would bring back more than that in a deadline deal, much less an offseason deal where a team gets him for the full season. Plus, many teams that would be interested in acquiring him would also be interested in a legitimate extension for him
