What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

Paywall

 

What's everyone's guess on the future of electric cars, at least for the next 4 years? What happens if the $7500 rebate is taken away?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/car-dealer-us-senator-says-171032870.html

 

Let me counter with two points:
- Outside of the obvious logistical problems EVs face (lack of charging stations, time to charge, range anxiety), who doesn't like EV's?
-Battery cost continue to trend down at a healthy pace. Efficiency not so much, but improvements are happening. Time to charge, weight and volume of battery size (energy density) are lagging. Solving 1 of 3 of these problems will be huge.(while costs continue to trend down)

 

I don't know who doesn't like them. It's certainly not people who have EVs. It's ignorant people who think they drive cross country every weekend.

I don't think range is my biggest issue. It's time to charge from 10 to 80. Even at 20 mins, it's 4-5 times longer than stopping at a pump. But of course this happens once every blue moon unless you are going to Dallas every weekend.

I am on my 3rd one (Audi -> BMW -> Nissan). I am actually close to pulling a trigger on an Audi E-Tron GT but I am hesitant because I like the Taycan Cross Turismo better.

And I consider myself a petrol head / Porsche guy (even got a classic 911)..but no way I am arguing that EVs are not a better solution for your average consumer with an ability to charge at home. Less maintenance, smoother acceleration/instant torque!, quieter....

 

i especially agree with the last point. EVs are a better solution for the majority of people. i am also a car guy that loves any engine... i have a classic truck hot rod.
almost all counter points will be moot with solid state batteries. we will see solid state batteries in production cars before 2028.

the next 4 years for EVs with trump is going to be very interesting. obvious answer is rolling back epa regulations and letting oil/gas rule but the caveat is elon musk has bought him. so my answer is republicans will get rid of the ev tax incentive and hold off on any grants for battery/ev technology. I believe tesla wants to get rid of the tax incentive also as they have the market share on EVs and feel it hurts their competition more than it helps them.

EV market is going to be rough until SSB are affordable. almost anyone that wants and can afford an EV has one and if you don't then you are waiting for batteries to be better and not buying now.

 

The average age of cars on the road right now is 12+ years. 10-15 year old batteries are going to suck. EVs are not a better solution for most people. Most people can't afford a 25k battery replacement.

 

Except the cost of replacement batteries is coming down as the tech improves. Also, the batteries are lasting longer than expected, moreso if people treat them right (keep charge between 20-80%, etc). A few studies found that even if an ev needed a replacement, it's still lower cost over 10 years than a gas engine.

https://www.cnet.com/home/electric-...tery-is-expensive-but-would-you-ever-need-to/

 

What's the failure rate on a battery?

You make it seem like at 10 years all EV battery goes dead.

 

Define suck. What is the YOY average loss for the various battery types?

There are several different battery types, each with their advantages and disadvantages. This is a subject very few people are aware of when considering EV's.

 

so 2016+ cars have what...<0.5% replacement rates so far?
If you are concerned about 0.5% chance of something, then don't buy it.
There's probably a much higher chance you will total your car before you need a replacement battery.


Recurrent’s team of battery scientists looked at battery replacements in our community of 20,000 cars and found:

• Unsurprisingly, the highest rate of battery replacements come from the very first generation of EVs on the road. These cars are now 14 years old – not too shabby for a new technology.
• Between 2022 and 2015, average battery sizes increased by 122%, meaning that newer EV batteries can stand to lose more capacity before they need replacement.
• As battery management systems and thermal management systems improve, we should see even better battery life and fewer replacements, even after more than a decade.

https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last

 

I do like the EV`s BUT, I barely remember to fill up with GAS, I think I would suck at remembering to plug it in and then there is the issue of where can I charge up if I am out and do I have to add a charging station in my garage, what If I move to an Apt. I know I will eventually do it, but hope all the kinks are out when I am ready............................but for now

 

How Do I Make My EV Battery Last Longer?
The best way to slow battery degradation is to avoid fast charging as much as possible. Fast chargers cram huge amounts of electricity into the battery as quickly as possible, creating a lot of heat. Automakers warn that using fast chargers often will cause the battery to wear faster and only recommend fast chargers for road trips and unplanned stops. To reduce degradation, charge from Level 2 chargers as much as possible, whether at home, at work, or when you’re out on the town. They’re much slower, but they don’t wear down the battery.
https://www.motortrend.com/features/ev-battery-lifespan-degradation-replacement-cost-study/

 

I'll just be happy if $50k can get you a $50k interior one day. Oh yes, and definitely solid state batteries. Hopefully those aren't a mirage.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...eam-aims-kill-biden-ev-tax-credit-2024-11-14/

Nov 14 (Reuters) - President-elect Donald Trump's transition team is planning to kill the $7,500 consumer tax credit for electric-vehicle purchases as part of broader tax-reform legislation, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
Ending the tax credit could have grave implications for an already stalling U.S. EV transition. And yet representatives of Tesla - by far the nation's largest EV seller - have told a Trump-transition committee they support ending the subsidy, said the two sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.


This is shooting Tesla in the foot and the competition in the head.

 

I completely expected this.

I wouldn't be surprised to see something in how this is implemented that benefits Tesla.

 

Comical people believe the subsidy going away will help Tesla.
It's also comical to listen to Musk talking about how it's more important for adoption of EVs but yet want the subsidies to go away, knowing it will cripple the completion even more.

 

So elon is against the billions he has received due to these credits? I don't get Elon's plan.

 

His competition can't survive with thinner margins

 

Kinda looks like a Bentley