My understanding is that the Astros have not negotiated much with their own players once they reach free agency. Springer, Correa, and Verlander were all extended “competitive” offers at the beginning of the offseason and then no further negotiations took place (to my knowledge). I think this is a sound strategy, as it avoids the possibility of bidding against themselves, and allows them to pivot to other options sooner. I think whatever offer was made to Bregman is the last offer Houston will make to him. The only player I can recall Houston circling back to was Brantley after he agreed to a deal with Toronto.
Close enough ( Chas and Meyers are projected to make just under $6M - $3.5 for Chas/$2.5 for Jake- but I get your point) To me the biggest issue is Walker. Because the Astros were above the CBT in 2024, if they sign a player with a Q.O. attached, they lose their 2nd and 5th highest draft picks and $1M in 2025 international money. I do not see them signing any if the FAs with a Q.O. attached. Also it doesn't matter how you shift the money. The CBT payroll (which is all that matters unless you are wanting to increase/decrease future trade value or are a broke ass owner) is based on the average salary regardless if it's front loaded or back loaded. Referrals do reduce AAV somewhat.
I just think this is different. The Astros never realistically had a chance to resign the guys within their decided limits before.
This has always been the case - however it has to be at a number that the Astros are satisfied with. The 6 year mandate - which was even discussed before by Click - is dated. Crane was asked about last year and said that he is going to be smart, but that as situations and markets change - he and the club adjusts to compete and win. They want a cut/dry situation with him. They would rather not have it drag on and likely will be aggressive early with their offers to get a resolution. If it drags on, I would not be at all surprised if they make other moves in the interim. They will have specific needs regardless of Bregman. This was discussed last year or the year before at the deadline and Crane said there is no hard and fast cut off on spending concerning the 1st or even second CBT. They are looking for ways to jettison contracts to clear extra money - and also trades to add players under team control. This is already being discussed - and has been for awhile as I said months ago.... I believe they even recently leaked it to the media. They want at a minimum two bats and a starter.... logistically, if they pull that off - it will require trading for one bat under team control and that will cost prospects. They have some options at 1st base - but the Yankees also may stick their snout in the 1st base market.
I disagree - if they fill other holes through trade, and believe that Walker is "the piece" - they would sign him at the QO penalty. They are trying to maximize their current window to compete for a title. A more "likely" scenario is that the Astros decide to trade for someone like Diaz or Naylor who costs them a small amount financially, but requires a player or prospect going back to Tampa or Cleveland. In some of those scenarios they could keep Bregman and add Naylor or Diaz, and then trade for an arm or get someone on a 4 year deal that may take less per season for a longer deal. In any case - there is a cost involved, be it draft picks, prospects or payroll flexibility going forward.
Naylor would be a great get from the offensive side. He's a bad defender at 1B, though. Diaz is older, makes more money, similar profile. Still, 1B is a place I'd make the offense for defense trade. Given our lineup issues, and the fact that they're not exactly replacing a gold glover.
Im nervous pairing defensive liabilities with an aging altuve on second. right side of infield. Yikes . . . need a good glove with some lateral movement at first. cost us last year already . . . seems silly to go back there.
I'd love a good defender at 1B. I share your concerns. But these guys aren't worse than Singleton with the glove, and they can actually hit.
Not my money but I’d overpay Bregman now rather than overpaying at the trade deadline. No guarantees at the trade deadline
Totally agree with this. Bregs wants to remain an Astro. Springer and Correa were always going to the highest bidder with the most years.
This is exactly what they should be thinking. I would even consider moving Tucker to help fill the needs and bring back Kikuchi as well as filling the other needs Truth is if Bregs wants to stay here on a 6-7 year deal that's competitive he will get paid what the market bears. More than that and he's a goner IMHO.
On Springer, the Astros played hard ball with him in the minors. Also, from what I've heard, he really wanted away from the cheating scandal aftermath.
I think both Springer and Correa wanted to distance themselves from the Astros. They sacrificed all-time record post season stats and possibly another ring to do it.
Correa would have happily stayed here… but he wanted the longer term deal that the Astros were rightly not banking on him earning. When Springer turned down the chance for a very decent extension in 2019 (negotiated by Luhnow), the organization knew. This was before the scandal broke. This had everything to do with taking away 1 year of big money earning potential (or just 1 year of accumulating MLB service time period).
I can't think of a single player on the current roster that should get an offer greater than 5 years. Perhaps he is hoping to pick up such a player in the off season.
I understand this view, but timing must be part of the equation. Tucker is a no-brainer. He projects to still be a 4+ WAR player for at least another 6 years. I would give him 8 and even 10. I would give Yainer 6 considering he's only 25 and still has 4 years of control so you would be buying out 2 years of FA cheaply. He has a bat that will play. Period. That deal would be less than $60M which also plays into it. I would do 3 for Framber and am very comfortable letting any pitcher go if it requires 5+ years. They are just too much of an injury risk.
Obviously, Springer did not see it as a very decent extension. Maybe, it was solely from the service time manipulation. From people that have talked directly with Springer after the scandal broke and before he signed, the Astros were not among his prefered locations in free agency. In other words, he didn't just leave to the highest bidder over the Astros. He may have left to the highest bidder of his prefered locations. He left because of things that occured while he was in the Astros organization and not because of money.
All true, but the scandal also solidified their thinking I'm positive, while Bregman is further removed from it and has another ring added. Those little nuances that Springer and Correa had may have jumpstarted it but sometimes everything combined puts a feeling in your gut one way or another.
Another thing about Bregman and the scandal that is rarely mentioned. Alex was a 23 year old in his 1st full MLB season. Was he really supposed to go up to Carlos Beltran and Alex Cora and stop them or object in any way? To tell them how things should be in an MLB organization?
