2024 Astros Minor League Thread

The problem is that 2 GM's have changed the way Luhnow did business since he's been gone for 4 years. Firing Oz is of course going to hurt the international scouting. That's not on Luhnow.

 

The issues started well before that.

 

Who's trying to revise anything, he built the foundation of a dynasty.

That doesn't mean he didn't make a possibly poor choice changing his own scouting for the worse near the end.

 

Exactly, some posters will go to great lengths to try to discredit the job Luhnow did. Fact that they were still odds on favorites to go to the WS this year, 5 years after he was gone speaks volumes for the job he did. All of the rationalizing in the world by some posters to discredit the job Luhnow did simply fall apart for one reason and one reason only, for the last 8 years the Stros have been the most winningest org in MLB over that time.

Some posters want to be right so bad because they dont like the way Luhnow did business that they will do anything to try to make him look bad. Funny thing is they ignore that his methods of doing business is what lead the dynasty. Guess they just forget about this. Also the talent is still very good in the minors even if the national guys dont think it is. Fortunately the Stros value their prospects differently than the herd.

 

He was able to carry out his vision. He hasn't been at MMP in 4-5 years. This really isn't that hard to understand. BTW, an international prospect saved the Stros season (Blanco) and there are more OTW. Was Blanco a Luhnow prospect? There are many more that will be at MMP in 2 years unless they're traded say for a guy like Robert who himself is an international prospect. So look at at the guys they traded for instead of just looking at prospects that have moved up.

Example if trading Baez/Brito and Ullola got you Robert in a trade, you would technically be correct because the Stros didn't develop them and play them on the MLB roster, but they helped the MLB roster get closer to a championship by being trade pieces that got you a top 10 player in MLB IMHO. So they served their purpose.

 

You dont know this because Luhnow wasn't allowed to cary out his vision. I'm betting the Stros org would still be in much better shape if Luhnow was running the org. Are you disageeing with this?

 

I’m presuming Garcia/Javier (and Valdez before them) don’t count because they were signed as kids? Never mind, we were looking at after the scout jettison.

I’ll let you go back to arguing with the fungo…

 

I've still got hope that this guy can become a MOR type guy.

 

Yes. Would love for him to go to Yankee Stadium and dominate his hometown team one day.

 

AA staff should be very good to start next season. Pecko, Hicks, Fleury, Dombroski, and Santos all have MoR or better upside, and all the other guys who project to be assigned there (Mancini, Santa, Swanson, Guilfoil, Knorr, Perez, Molero, Torres) have a decent chance at some kind of major league future.

Reality is that Houston’s farm is well above average at OF and P, and average at C. Their weakness is infield and really that is limited to the middle levels.

 

Out of the pitchers you listed, who do think has the best chance to be an Arrighetti type MLB prospect? I see Arrighetti as a SP 2 with an outside chance at eventually becoming a SP1 type guy.

 

I think Pecko is the best of those prospects.

 

This seems like the most appropriate thread for my question, hope it belongs.

So many time in the last month ot so, I keep hearing he "Is not ready" for the big leagues.

Question:
What truly makes a guy MLB ready?
# of plate appearances?
Games played?
Games at a specific position?

I for one do not think anyone is MLB ready from the farm. You are only MLB ready once you have been in the show for a bit.
Not much compares in quality from AAA to the show.

So please someone smarter than me explain what MLB ready is.
Is it quantifiable?

 

I usually consider a position player prospect “ready” to be promoted to the majors when they have >200 pa in AAA where they have a lot of consistent success. That assumes a player has a track record of success prior to getting to AAA. A prospect with a super high pedigree could be ready sooner (although I wouldn’t want any prospect to skip AA). A prospect without pedigree may need more proof in AAA (I wanted Leon and Whitcomb to have a stretch of dominance across 400-600 pa in AAA). The thresholds are variable, largely based on the player’s defensive value and age. None of that should suggest that a player should be expected to have immediate success in the majors; how long it takes for a player to establish themselves also varies. It can take up to 600 pa for a guy in his mid 20s to get established, possibly longer for younger guys.

For pitching prospects, I don’t know. I think bringing a guy up for a low leverage relief role or spot start should really just be based on how good their stuff is and where they fall on the development timeline and aging curve. For starting pitching prospects with pedigree, 40 dominant innings in AAA is probably enough. For prospects without pedigree, I’d be looking for 100-120 AAA innings. I don’t think pitching prospects should really ever skip AAA.

 

I think it's different for every player.

A guy like Bagwell skipped AAA entirely and was an MLB starter at ROY level 1 1/2 yrs after bring drafted.

Pedro Leon has spent the better part of 3 years in AAA playing everyday and still didn't look ready.

To me, if a player has enough talent they can move at a faster pace, like Bregman cruising right through every level in months at a time.

But at a certain point (1000 PAs in AAA? 200 IP in AAA?) they have prepared as much as possible and must sink or swim in the Bigs, or be a career AAA guy.

 

An optimist’s view of the Astros’ projected 2025 opening day minor league lineups:

AAA:
LF Corona: 20HR/30SB in AA in 2023, elite defensive OF on 40 man
SS Matthews: 1st rd pick made it to AAA in first full season; 146 wRC+ in AA in 2024; fringe Top 100 prospect
CF Melton: 2nd rd pick, 15 HR/30SB in 105g last season; Top 100 prospect
3B Dezenzo: 149 wRC+ in AAA last season; fringe top 100 prospect
2B Whitcomb: 25HR/26SB last season in AAA
RF Leon: 24HR/29SB last season in AAA
1B Cabbage: 30HR/32SB in AAA in 2023
DH Hamilton: 15HR/8SB in 99g in AAA last season
C Palma: Fangraphs org #23 prospect in 2023

AA:
SS Williams: 154 wRC+ in High A last season
2B Ferreras: 152 wRC+ in High A last season; org #19 prospect
CF Cole: FG Org #16 prospect
RF Baez: FG Org #7 prospect; 20 HR in 92g in High A last season
3B Deming: 138 wRC+ in AA last season
C Price: 141 wRC+ in High A last season
DH Barber: FG Org #30 prospect
1B L Encarnacion: 112 wRC+ in AA last season
LF Cerny: 120 wRC+ in High A last season

High A:
CF Gomez: 121 wRC+ in A ball last season
RF Huezo: FG org #32 prospect in 2023
C Janek: 2024 1st rd pick; org #4 prospect
1B Fisher: 2023 3rd rd pick
2B Nunez: 113 wRC+ in A ball last season
SS Johnson: 14hr in 105g last season
3B Gonzalez: FG Org #22 prospect in 2022
DH Carrillo: 140 wRC+ in A ball last season
LF Whitaker: 3rd pick in 2021 ($1.5M bonus); FG Org #38 prospect in 2022

A:
CF Sullivan: 8sb in 20g last season; 2024 7th rd pick
2B Jaworsky: FG Org #12 prospect
C Villarroel: FG Org #24 prospect
DH Powell: overslot bonus; 95 wRC+ in A ball last season
RF Ochoa: 10hr/17sb in 103g in A ball last season at age 18
1B Bush: 110 wRC+ in A ball last season
LF C Hernandez: FG Org #32 prospect
3B Diaz: FG Org #8 prospect
SS G Ramirez: $1.2M signing bonus in 2023

 

Austin Deming has hit HR in consecutive games in the Arizona fall league. His ops is up to a respectable .751. Collin Price has a .581, with Quincy Hamilton sitting at .713.