Vecenie: Sengun extension good, Green bad: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5862754/2024/10/22/jalen-green-extension-rockets-sengun/ And yet, given all of those factors, it feels like this is a classic case where patience would have been a virtue. It made more sense to wait to see what Green did this season — especially if the answer was this contract that will either result in Houston not getting full advantage of a star turn from Green, or in them overpaying him for a few seasons if he remains inconsistent. If the Rockets had waited and Green turned into a star, they probably would not be that disappointed in paying him more than this over a longer term. But if he doesn’t make that turn, then you’re stuck with this deal on your books in an NBA that seems to be less enthusiastic about paying players like Green than ever before, if this summer’s free agency was any indication. Even though the Rockets didn’t quite hold the same amount of leverage with Green as they did with Şengün because of their draft positions, they could have held off to get more information on who exactly Green is. Instead, they agreed to a deal where they tried to middle the negotiations. Because of that choice, this deal will almost certainly end poorly for at least one side, and could end up being disappointing for both if Green realizes his potential.
In theory it takes a lot of pressure off him to perform which, counterintuitively, could help him perform better. In other words he can go out there and just have fun. It is A TON of fun to win.
Any skill of talent that requires training muscle memory inherently means things like worrying about losing a chance at generational wealth or fears of missing a shot or turning the ball over or having your role and minutes on the team changed if you play poorly increases the chances of missing shots, getting turnovers etc. If you think about not commiting turnovers you will commit turnovers. If you think about ball security you will get stripped. If you think about not bricking the shot you brick the shot. You have to trust the muscle memory you gained while training to not second guess a shot attempt, a pass attempt, a creative dribble attempt etc. If you fail while trusting it that means you don't got it yet and you either need to train more or you just don't have the innate talent to successfully execute those moves and shot attempts. The more you worry the less you rely on your muscle memory and the more likely you are going to look a step slow in your decision making and commit more turnovers and miss shots more often.
It's a different feeling. Before an extension a fear for a player could be something like a career altering injury like a acl tear that could make even missing out on a second NBA contract a possibility and missing out on generational wealth. Now he's guaranteed a minimum of 100 million dollars. It's nowhere near the same pressure of playing the season ahead to prove yourself in order to negotiate an entirely new contract.
Or, with the pressure off, he could just give the team more of what he's given them for the last 3 years. When a team rewards failure, why give them anything else?
I thought the actual contract money is for the 2025, 2026, and 2027 seasons. Wouldn't that mean he isn't technically able to leave until the 2027 season by the 3rd year player option?
I think its a good thing. Cause in a year they would probably have to give him the full 5 or lose him for pennies on the dollar Rocket River
I'm happy with the deal. Jalen has flashed enough that you get at least 3 years to see if he fully realizes his potential. If he does the Rockets should be happy to pay whatever the going rate will be when his next freeagencyarrives. If not, they can move on a couple years earlier.
Just for the record, IF he opts out after year two, he isn't eligible for the 30% max, he'd be a year short of the 7 years tenure. He'd likely want a 1+1 player option allowing him to opt out after the initial year to get the 30% a year later.
Unless he makes an All-NBA team. Basically, the best case from this contract is that the Rockets pay Green about $12M more a year over three contending years than if they had just signed him to a full max.
Jalen green is here to stay for a couple more years at least ! We gotta support him and not tear him down! I’m looking forward to seeing how he stars the year !! Please be post all star break Jalen from the start of the season
An extension of @Corrosion ’s point — Aaron Gordon negotiated an opt-in and extension. Could Green do the same? Basically agree to opt-in to his player option and extend on a 30% contract from there?
I like the Green deal. Personally, I think some stupid NBA team would’ve paid him max next off-season even if he had just performed similarly to 2023/2024. I am pretty confident there is an All-Star in there, but it may take more than just one more season for him to show that.
Even at the 7 year mark, Jalen’s extension would be capped at 140% of his previous salary, like all extensions. That takes him to $51M starting salary… the exact same as the 25% max. That’s not an accident, they set it up so that if Jalen becomes a star, his options in October 2026 will be: 1. Extend with Houston at essentially the 25% max. $240M/5. 2. Play well the next year, then opt out and sign a 1+1, then play well the next year, then opt out and re-sign a new 30% max. $285/5 He’d most likely do #1. Saving us money in the scenario he’s a star (which is probably the only scenario he’s still on the team).
Yes, he’ll be able to wait up until the June 30th before he becomes a free agent. So, if he opts-in, he’ll achieve 7yr tenure before the extension. But I don’t think he can reach 30%. Maybe with a signing bonus. [edit] upon doing the calculation, yes he can achieve his 30% max with a signing bonus. please correct me if I do this wrong: 30%Max is achieved by 140% raise for extension, plus 15% of total contract for a 5yr at 8% raises gets him the equivalent of a 5-yr 30% Max But, I don’t think he’ll do that versus extending after two seasons at 25% max with a 1+1, to get ~$90m more security prior to extending again for 30%, which is what Vecenie suggested. But, I don’t think he’ll do that either. He’ll take the 5yr max bag as soon as possible.
