Right - or most people don't know about or give a **** about polymarkets - and only "the dudes" are involved. It is interesting - but just like polling and everything else, it is just a single tool.
He under-estimated her. He isn't a stupid man and is actually supposedly really a reasonable person outside of his job --- but Harris is a woman, and he is still surrounded by Fox News and that stuff influences people. She has now be under-estimated at the debate and the Fox News interview. She has had her worse performances around people that don't under-estimate her or that she is overly comfortable around - like The View.
It would be sadly hilarious, and not surprising, if it were Musk. Plenty of money to throw around for feelings. A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win. “There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts. Polymarket is investigating the activity in its presidential-election markets with the assistance of outside experts, a person familiar with the matter said. The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month. The accounts have plowed most of their money into straightforward bets on Trump’s winning the presidency, but they have also put millions of dollars into bets that he will win such swing states as Pennsylvania, as well as long-shot bets on Trump’s winning the popular vote—smaller side markets also available on Polymarket. While $30 millon might seem costly, it is sufficient to swing the odds on Polymarket and not a large outlay for a deep-pocketed individual seeking to influence the election, added Cochran, managing partner of the venture-capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures. The betting spree has echoes of the “Romney Whale,” an unknown trader who placed a flurry of bets on a Mitt Romney victory during the closing weeks of the 2012 election, using Intrade, a now-defunct prediction market. The trader lost nearly $7 million, according to a 2015 paper by a pair of economists from Microsoft and Barnard College. The authors concluded that the bets had characteristics of manipulation, potentially aimed at shaping public perceptions. Rajiv Sethi, one of the paper’s co-authors, said the recent bets on Polymarket followed a similar pattern: steady accumulation of a huge wager that gradually lifted Trump’s chances of success. The simplest explanation is a giant bettor who expects Trump to win—but the possibility of manipulation can’t be ruled out, according to Sethi, a professor at Barnard. “If I were trying to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I would do it,” Sethi said.
I have a slightly different take on the Fox interview, and why it went the way it did. I think he was far too aware and concerned about the absolute barrage of threats and career ending hatred he would get if he did not effectively "Take down" Kamala. He knew Trump and Trumpworld would be watching. He knew the Murdochs, Elon, Theil, Kochs, etc. were all watching and would all have his head if he didn't giver her hell, and help Trump. Beir's whole body language and demeanor was completely different than it normally is. He looked nervous, flustered, and looked like someone kind of desperate. That's where he really got taken off his game, and overplayed his hand. But yeah she has been underestimated and delivered with the audiences that matters, and has been overestimated and slightly under-delivered with audiences that she already has in the bank for the most part. Beyond the FoxNews watchers though she does have other audiences that do underestimate her, or at least have a caricature of her that is not accurate. Take into account the 200,000 Arab Americans in Michigan who want to punish her and themselves in the process to prove a point. She should step into the lions den in Deerborn for a townhall, and get real with those folks to move voters there. Don't let Jill Stein define her to that population. Go to the lions den, and do what you did on Fox again, and maybe save Michigan.
To my last point though about the Arab American backlash because of Gaza. Are there Arab American's here that have an opinion on what could be done to win back those votes? And also give me a little context as to why it makes sense to make yourself a victim by voting Stein/Trump just to "send a message?" I'm struggling to understand the logic. I know people are rightfully angry, but logic still is fuzzy to me, and I really want to understand. Because the stakes are way too high to be messing around right now.
Psychologists speak of something called "psychic numbing." Human beings, just in terms of counting, can understand one or two deaths and connect with that, but they cannot connect with hundreds or thousands of deaths. That literally does not make sense. I think this is why TikTok vidoes are so effective politically. Show me one Trump supporter being stupid, or one Kamala supporter being stupid, or -- in this case, to be relevant -- one disfigured Palestinian child, and people are much more likely to connect to that emotionally than some #s or some set of data. So, for the Michigan voters you're describing (and I haven't followed this phenomenon much), but maybe it goes like this (in their voice, not mine): "I cannot tolerate one single more Palestinian innocent killed. Not one! My vote cannot support that." You and I might say: um, yeah but, the vote you're actually making will get probably 2x more killed, don't you care? "Not one! Not one more can die, not if you want my vote!" EDIT: foetus-uber-alles voters are perhaps similar.
I was listening to this podcast earlier and it’s really striking to me that these Republicans after all they say, and after the danger of Trump that they lay out, in the end basically lay the groundwork to say “well it’s really the Democrats fault for not being as inclusive to us REASONABLE Republicans if they lose” and really laying the groundwork to have it both ways regardless of what happens. The fact is if Kamala loses, Trump takes power, and we dive off the cliff of democracy into the unknown of a Trump led oligarchy Christian nationalism, all of these former republicans who had a hand in building up the right wing establishment themselves over the year and fed the propaganda machine themselves, have much more blame to lay at their own doorstep than Kamala Harris or Democrats who took in the likes of Liz Cheney when they sure as hell don’t deserve it. I dunno… just this hand wringing and self righteousness with these Republicans setting up the pre-emptive blame game and telling themselves how self important they are, really rubs me the wrong way. Kamala has run a damn good campaign. Democrats aren’t perfect but they are trying as best as they can to save the country from Trump. Just stop it with the hand wringing and self righteousness please Never Trumper Republicans.
There were multiple people yelling 'That's a lie' while she's speaking. That's much easier to hear, so more likely that's what she's responding to.
Lest we forget that politically motivated social media isn't just spreading right-wing memes. There's of course a concerted effort to keep part of the far left really really upset over Gaza and whatever else where they aren't getting exactly the policies they want. I can only imagine what some of these people's social media feeds look like, the stuff they consume most all the live long day without even pausing to wonder about the algorithms and the goals behind it all. Ah well.
This guy isn't even 30 years old - he has no idea what kind of morning Harris has or hasn't had. If anything, the last few days have been good for her after having a bad two weeks. This guy is also the same loser that was arrested for pistol whipping and threatening to kill his girlfriend on Thanksgiving last year..... a real all around scumbag.
Actually Kamala is elate over this recent development from her interview w FoxNews after much push-backs on the air wave/social media, Baier Forced to Admit That he made a mistake showing the wrong Trump clip during Harris interview
