I think tonight's game gave a good glimpse into Ime's rotation plans: Sheppard and Thompson first off the bench, with heavy minutes for Adams, Cam, and Eason. So, let's break it down as follows for simplicity. 32 minutes per starter 25 minutes for Amen and Sheppard That's 210 minutes out of 240 between 7 players, leaving only 30 for Adams, Eason, and Whitmore. It's definitely going to be tight.
Jabari won't be playing 32 mins/game, at least not for long. He'll be under 20 if he doesn't get his act together. If Tari, remains healthy, Jabari will fall even further behind. Cam's minutes are also at risk.
I think Adams' playing time will be situational like Jeff Green last year. If Sengun is rolling or the opponent is smaller and more athletic, he might not play at all. Outside of that you would hope someone makes a leap to justify higher playing time between the young guys (other than Sengun).
Jabari Smith should not be getting starter minutes. I hope we don't overplay Fred this year. Van-Vleet (30) / Sheppard (18) Green (30) / Whitmore (18) Brooks (28) / Thompson (20) Smith (24) / Eason (24) Sengun (30) / Adams Or Landale (18) On the back 2 backs when Eason sits, extend others minutes and throw Jeff or McVeigh in for 10 minutes.
Jabari is a bust for a high draft pick. He isn’t even starting caliber PF for a good team. Amen, Cam and Tari are more dynamic and have better upsides.
One of Sheppard/Cam is not going to get rotation minutes unless there's an injury. Even if you put all of Amen's minutes at PF, you still have Brooks/FVV/Jalen/Reed/Tari/Cam, 6 players for 3 positions. And Udoka's not sitting any of the other 4 guys at least to start the year.
I 100% do not buy that Sheppard won't receive rotation minutes. Maybe Cam, but not Sheppard. He was the first off the bench tonight for a reason. We'll see, but my belief is the most minutes will go to the five starters + Thompson and Sheppard, with a steep falloff after that.
We'll see. I'm not as high on Cam and Eason as some, and I think they'll play it safe with Eason's injury to start.
I definitely could see a major pullback on Smith's minutes, but I think Thompson will benefit far more from it than Eason.
Folks remember Jalen Green's struggles the most, but Jabari last year was getting his ass chewed for "physicality" in a ton of post-game pressers. He looks a whole lot like Joe Smith. Not a bad player by any stretch, but his contract needs to be equivalent to his value. (He does have value, especially when we see the Chet/Wemby types later on...) That said, a PF that can move off the ball would feast on this roster. Jabari needs to watch out for the Tari and Amen forward tandem. Also, preseason is preseason. Some of the best players I have ever seen were absolutely DREADFUL preseason players. Tub of salt. Prayers up for the season 3 leap.
Cam and Reed will both get rotation minutes to start the season. Book it. Reed looks ready to be the backup PG ahead of Holiday. If Cam doesn't get it together, Reed will get additional mins at his expense. IMO, Cam's rotation mins might be taken by Reed/Amen. Jabari's rotation mins are at risk because of Tari/Amen. I repeat: This season isn't going to be all peaches and cream. A couple of guys will lose out. Others will flourish and go next-level as the team develops an identity and determines who plays winning basketball and who doesn't.
If I was to bet on who would receive more playing time this season between Cam and Reed I'm betting on Reed and for multiple reasons. One reason I think people overlook is the Rockets have more invested in Reed. He's a third overall pick vs Cam being a 20th pick. So he is going to naturally be seen as more important to develop than Cam. And second, Reed just naturally jumps off at me as someone who's just going to be more consistent with his shooting while also adding value in ball handling and making smarter decisions with the ball. A lot less reckless deer in the headlights issues with Reed compared to Cam. So ya more than likely Reed will be getting more minutes than Cam. I don't think Reed is a situation where you have to get him reps in the gleague in his rookie year like Cam. His game is no where near as raw as Cam's.
I think Reed will get more minutes than Cam. That said, the number one reason is that he's the third guard in a three guard rotation. Cam is the 5th wing in a likely 3.5 wing rotation. Cam for the most part, like Reed, needs to shoot well north of 20% from behind the arc.
This is a GREAT situation to have and will force the cream to rise to the top. I also believe Ime has shown that minutes depend on things like... - matchups - hot hand or hustle - vet/injury rest We didn't have a real playmaker behind FVV last year, now we do. As RS gets more comfortable he'll get more minutes if we produces. I'd pencil Alpi in for 33-36 minutes a night. After that Fred for 30+, with Jalen in that range depending on how he plays. Amen is going to force his way into 24-30 mins. The rest will likely be dictated by the 3 factors above. Ime wants to win and he has a great blend of talent and experience to tap into achieving victories. I didn't watch last night's game yet, my daughter got married Monday, so I still had family to entertain, but I'm gonna watch it once I finish this cigar.
The more I read the well thought out posts on the minutes logjam, the more I think a trade will happen by this trade deadline. Too many good players to play them all. Cam deserves minutes. Amen deserves to start. Reed Sheppard has shown he will be ready for the rotation. Tari is healthy. Adams is looking like a beast. Jalen & Alpi looked like they improved over the off season. Rockets have 10 guys who would start on an average team - which is good for a long NBA season, but may cause chemistry issues at some point this season.
I think there’ll be more than 30 min for Adams, Tari and Cam. I don’t see Bari and Dillon averaging 32 min a night. 28 seems more realistic to me. But even if you figure 40 min for those 3, it still leaves an odd man out. Tari and Cam need minutes; we can’t afford a year of underdevelopment for those two. But this year I think Ime is gonna be about winning over developing so I don’t see Dillon getting moved, and he’s the guy blocking Tari and Cam.
Tari and Cam have to earn the minutes. If Tari is healthy, I think he will clearly outperform DB; not as confident in Cam. DB does some really bone-headed stuff on the court sometimes, but that affliction bites Tari and Cam too.
