I think they are at least 5-7pts off. I believe that they still poll by and large those on land lines who lean heavily older and republican, and that most of the younger generation does not participate and the models have not accounted for that vote. Or, do you guys believe they are accurate now after being adjusted? We can see in 4 weeks DD
Since the polls themselves are quite different from each other - one of them is probably accurate (by chance), most aren't. Hard to say right now.
I don’t know but what I do know is that this cycle Trump supporters are not shy at all, and liking Biden especially just isn’t “cool” to say publicly. There’s sort of a shaming you get now if you talk openly about anything positive with Dems. That’s just something I think that happens in this country with the party in power. That was the case with Obama too and the guy is still the most popular political figure in modern history. With Kamala it’s hard to tell but I think people still are afraid to tell people they like her as well. So yeah my gut tells me that the polls are not picking up a silent majority. That being said the past two election cycles don’t lie in terms of polling data. Kamala could be up by 3 and Trump could still win by 2. The fact is nobody really knows what the hell is going to happen until about 9pm est when Kornacki starts comparing county numbers against Biden 20 numbers. Anyone saying they know is full of it.
I don’t think they are accurate but I don’t think they are worthless. I think in general that this is a close race as nearly all polls show is true. I think though there are some basic structural problems with polling methodology and also adjustments that pollsters are making. with or without the polls turnout will be critical and the campaigns should be working as hard as they can.
One of the problem that I see though is that after 2016 pollsters put it in adjustments to make up for a hidden Republican vote. Those adjustments have overstated Republican support in 2022 and several special elections.
If the polling is correct and the election were today, Harris would win. They won't be right (for many). The margin of error (~3-5%) is larger than the difference between the two. Trump has about 47-48% (yes, that’s above his 46% in 2016 and 46.9% in 2020). Harris also has about 47-48%. It's basically a coin flip. Polls that show a breakout should probably be ignored. There are only about 4% of truly undecided voters who will cast their ballots. About 8% are soft Trump and soft Harris voters who are likely to vote. Trump can't get above 48%. Well, he could, but he needs new voters (people who don’t typically get off their arse to vote), and that's historically difficult to achieve. He’s trying—going on podcasts and such. But, he also lacks the ground game to get them out to vote, although his campaign is trying new, unproven methods (essentially outsourcing the "get out the vote" efforts to third parties using targeting techniques that were started pretty late in the game. As with most things Trump, it’s chaotic, weird, and fast, but sometimes that works). The Trump campaign is being a bit aggressive, believing they can win up to 15% of Black voters, but this is largely driven by younger Black voters, who more often than not don’t show up. Harris has a higher ceiling, but she will also have to fight for that last 0.5%. She is also engaging in her media blitz with podcasts, Univision, etc., to reach these last few voters. The Harris campaign is being very conservative regarding Republican-leaning independents (not counting on them), but they sense they are undercounting that cohort. They also have a much stronger traditional ground game for "get out the vote".
I think the anti-Trump independents and republicans are difficult to poll but I do feel there may be more out there than is being counted. Consider the primaries when Haley voters were still putting up double digit numbers against Trump even after Haley had suspended her campaign. Haley has endorsed Trump but not sure how wholehearted that is or if all of her voters have followed her. I agree though that these voters are hard to reach and especially hard to target with get out of the vote so not sure how much of a wild card they are.
Those are driven by Crypto bros. who are desperate to have Trump and keep any new legislation about their Crypto currencies away. DD
polls are mostly trash u take a sample of 1000 people and try to extrapolate that out to millions of votes…a lot of it done via landlines, texts from unknown numbers, random surveys on websites, etc and every day u can find a new poll that will show whatever u want to believe
Not one bit... In 2016 the polls has Hillary being President and we all see that didn't happen... For me... i take the polling with a grain of salt.. I have never been involved with any polling questions and neither have myol associates. T_Man
polls and surveys can be a few people to a few thousand. they can also be myopic when they try to filter their candidates. they'll frame questions, follow on question, to get the answer they want.
I had NEVER been polled until this election season. I've been contacted for over 10 polls this time. No idea why. I only answered 1 because I was sure it was a legitimate poll. I ignored most of the cell phone/email push polls since I had no idea if they were scams trying to get me to click on a link. BTW, I have also been contacted by both campaigns for their own internal polling (assuming they weren't scams)
Polling is still ass but all politicians swear by it... There were too many scandals that dinged Hilary support. Trump had a few surprises but WikiLeaks was a slow drip that supported the con narrative about emails and Comey dropped his bombshell right after the last debate. She wouldn't have lost if Bernie bros hadn't stayed home but there's no perfect timing when karma hits you like a truck.
I’ve read up a little on the current state of polling, and it’s interesting. The organization doing the polling will try to make the poll more accurate by making statistical adjustments using a number of variables. The problem is that you really don’t know who is going to make the effort to actually vote. It appears that part of the problem with the polls in 2016 and 2020 is that the pollsters underestimated how loyal Trump supporters are to their candidate. People joke that MAGA is a cult. But, Trump truly does seem to have a strong hold on his followers. Some Trump supporters appear to show up when he is on the ballot, but don’t bother to vote when he isn’t on the ballot. I fully expect the Trumpers to come out in huge numbers this election. They are in love with the guy. I found the article interesting: Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024 https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...gs-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024/
