I don’t know how the cap escalates the next few years. But I definitely could see some scenarios where he ops out after this year and then resigns for 3 years 78 million.
I have absolutely no problems with Fred staying long-term. If a deal that fits for everyone can be worked out he's the long-term mentor that we wanted from other players in the past. There is no player better than him as a point guard, table setter for the offense, and leader at this point, so let guys start to win and then he can show them how to win in the playoffs as well as the regular season.
I actually do want to see this lineup, screw being small - not like Jalen being a few inches taller makes him play better defense: G FVV G Reed SF Amen PF Tari C Alpi Every single one of these guys can get you 1.5 steals and 1 block per game. I prefer Tari to Bari. Alpi, Tari, Amen can get tons of offensive rebounds, too. Lots of flexibility when bringing up the ball, everyone except Tari can be the "point guard" (initiator) on offense. On defense, Amen and Tari can make up for the lack of size of FVV and Reed. Everyone has super active hands on defense.
Brooks is still under contract for 3 more years. No reason to start thinking about extending him yet until we see how Amen, Tari, and Cam pan out because ideally you'd want one of those 3 taking his spot in the starting lineup with the other 2 rounding out the rotation off the bench.
What? I would never want to extend brooks, i want to get rid of him ASAP. I was saying if his deal was more reasonable, like 3-4 mil a year it wouldn’t be as tough a to swallow having him on the roster
I actually want to see a slight variation of this lineup. Sheppard FVV Thompson Bari Sengun If Amen and Sengun keep developing — and Green remains inconsistent — FVV could be the stable, consistent presence we need at the 2. Amen, Bari, and Sengun make up for the lack of size between Sheppard and FVV. The Rockets could also easily opt out of FVV’s last year and extend him.
Sheppard and FVV cannot share much time on the floor except against teams with weak backcourts. The defense would be putrid.
Why? Because of their size? It works fine for the Cavs. The key is to have size in the frontcourt, which Sengun and Bari would provide.
Defense isn't our current problem. It's spacing. This team won't make the strides expected from them without fixing it.
Ah gotcha. I thought you were projecting into the future after FVV and Brooks deals expire. Brooks is a decent role player and in today's NBA, $20M a year is what decent role players are making. At least we aren't playing a role player like Tobias Harris $36M a year for five years. Sure, he has bad tunnel vision and has silly turnovers at times but he shot the 3 ball well at a respectable percentage and plays his heart out. A guy like that was needed to help Udoka establish his culture alongside FVV and Uncle Jeff.
Ya for sure, he blew away my expectations last season. I expected him to be an abject disaster and one of the worst players in the league, but you can actually argue he was a reasonable 9th man level rotation player, which was amazing. He’s still a sub 10 PER guy and one of the worst offensive players in basketball so he should never get minutes but it is what it is.
You claim you know nothing about the cap growth, but your number seems dead on as something that is reasonable: Eric Gordon signed a 3-year, $54M extension starting in 2020 for 15.5% of the cap that covered age 32-34. That same contract today, (15.5% of a projected $154M cap in 2025 - 2026) would be: 3-years, $77.587M, covering age 31-33, with a Y1 salary right around $24M. I think that seems like a very reasonable comp for FVV's predicted impact on the team going forward. Losing him completely would be a big blow to the competitiveness of the team. One possible idea I'd love to see the Rockets pursue is to actually pick up FVV's 2025-2026 team option for $44.9M, and then extend him at a much lower salary for 2026 and 2027. Even completely ignoring the time value of money, a structure that looks like: $45M / $18M / $16.5M would pay FVV more than a standard $24M / $25.9M / $27.8M ascending 3 year deal, and would be giving the Rockets a lot of salary relief during the years where the rookie extensions are going to be kicking in and the second apron is going to be a real concern. If FVV is on the team in 2025, and Sengun/Green get extensions, the Rockets will likely still be comfortably below the apron, but won't have enough space to practically sign any free agents; whether FVV is getting paid $45M or $24M on a new deal is not going to really open up many options in 2025. But FVV at a sub-$20M salary as he transitions to a sixth man role would be a huge coup, and would be a very tradeable contract if Amen/Sheppard completely take over the backcourt.
While I like this idea, if we pick up FVV's option AND Sengun and Green earn max extensions, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to stay out of the tax next summer (though we should be able to stay under the apron). Here's to hoping Tilman is willing to pay. Personally, I think it's more likely the option is declined and FVV is resigned, as you mentioned. Even if he extends for something like 3 / 90, our cap sheet should be pretty clean going forward.
I think a lot of lineups should work well with FVV and Sheppard when Sheppard is more up to speed (i.e., I don't want that lineup going against starting units this season). With Sengun, I'd like Jabari out there for Tari (or Amen) so the Rockets get as much spacing as possible for Sengun. I think the Rockets endgame with Sengun is having 4 shooters out there with him and figuring out a way to maintain defense.
Right now, yes that probably doesn't work against starting lineups. That said, Amen and Tari would help mitigate a lot of the defensive issues. Also, teams are unlikely to have 3 guys that can guard FVV, Reed, and Amen and punish that backcourt.
