Boras reps Altuve, but that hasn't stopped him from signing 2 extensions here. I love to see him take up for his teammate. He's telling Crane let them be this generations Biggio & Bagwell. In the end, it will take Alex wanting to be here and Jim Crane telling Dana to get the deal done. I think Bregman would take a discount, but not something significant. I would say Marcus Semien was a similar FA 3 years ago and Texas gave him 7/$175. Of course you could also argue Matt Chapman as a good comp and he only got 4/$73M with an opt out after every season that I assume he's going to take so he ended up with a 1 year $20M deal. I personally think his value is around 6/$180M. I think we should consider 5/$150M or 8/$200M, front loaded regardless. I would love to have him on Semiens deal. I'd obviously take Chapman's deal in a heartbeat, but I'd rather secure Bregman than do this dance next year even if that would be ideal from a long-term building standpoint of seeing if Brice can take the job.
Chapman already re-signed for 6/$150 after the opt out. That's the best comp all around. Bregman could get more AAV based on playoff success or whatever else.
Wasted money. Put every dollar possible towards getting bats. Use Blubaugh, Gusto etc.. as rotation depth next year and young guys like Brito should be ready by 2026. Bring back Kikuchi.
I thought he might have, but it wasn't updated on BR and I wasn't feeling like double checking. Chapman is a year older, so that makes some difference. Maybe 7/$175M would get it done. The 3B market is incredibly thin, though.
That's a good idea lol. U know whoever signs him to that big contract will be panicking and thinking they made a mistake because of the slow start. Then we swoop in and trade for him while they cover half the salary.
Spotrac has Bregman's base value @ 6yrs / $165.44M (27.57 AAV) and his market value @ 4ys / $119.9M ($29.98M AAV) They based this on comps: Many Machado, Chris Taylor, Jeimer Candelario, and Matt Chapman @ his previous deal. Bregman is a year younger than Chapman and is more accomplished, more consistent year to year, and has a great post season track record. No way he signs for less than Chapman's 6 yr/$151M deal. I still think Taylor and Candelario aren't good comps because they are clearly at a lower level in role as well as production. But it does bring some balance to the estimate. Based on his reduction in statistical performance in 2024 (-4.32% from their pre 2024 stats) his value should be: 6 yrs / $158.3M ($26.38M AAV) Market value is usually higher AAV due to scarcity but sometimes higher AAV can bring the length down. In this case, I think Chapman set the floor at 6 yrs.
I understand Altuve wanting Bregman back, but no mention of Tucker. I know he had a shitty postseason, but before his injury, he was in the MVP race. With how he was injured and how he ended the season, hopefully Crane gets a discount to signing Tucker.
1) Jose and Alex have played in the same infield together since 2016. Tucker is an OF and didn't join until halfway through this golden run. 2) Tucker still has an entire year. The exclusive negotiating period to resign Alex is now and very short.
The position that is being taken is that the 6/150 number for Chapman is the FLOOR for negotiations. I have mixed feelings about that because Chapman was VASTLY superior to Bregman this season. He quietly had like a 7-8 WAR season playing in San Francisco. For comparison, Bregman had like 4 WAR or maybe 4.5 WAR. So - I don't think the deal that Chapman got should be the FLOOR.
I don't have a problem with either view. This is the first season since 2017 that Chapman has been significantly better. 2024: Chapman 7.1 to 4.1 2023: Bregman 4.9 to 4.4 2022: Bregman 4.6 to 3.6 2021: Chapman 3.5 to 2.3, (Alex=3.5 if same # g) 2020: Chapman 1.2 to 1.1 2019: Bregman 8.9 to 7.8 2018: Bregman: 7.9 to 7.6 2017: Bregman: 4.0 to 3.2, (Matt 5.9 if same # g) Also Chapman is a year older and has played a total of 6 post season games in his career. I can see both sides.
I definitely wouldn't mind 6 at 150 as long as the gremlins in his elbow aren't more than that. We really can't expect to lose both Bregman and Tucker without some serious luck in regards to development, if we expect to continue winning. I mean we would have to have 2 people in the minors become near all-star level.
Even if the Astros make him a compelling offer, I have to assume he’ll at least look to see what’s out there. The Astros won’t give him an offer that would prevent that.
I know it's harder for teams to put 26 quality big leaguers on the field when you are paying one guy $25M+. And committing to 6+ years of that makes it worse. That said, as I look more and more over the Astros options, it becomes more and more obvious that bringing Alex back makes the most sense. I understand, he had the worst season of his career and is now on the wrong side of 30. But even in that poor season, he was much better than most others. Among 64 3b who had at least 150 PAs, Alex was 9th in wRC+ and 4th in fWAR. The vast majority of the guys who were better (Ramirez, Devers, Chapman, etc) are not going anywhere so the options are: 1) Resign Bregman 2) bring in a veteran like Iglesias who had a career year at 34 or a "good" veteran like a Suarez type but understand 3b will be not be as good in 2025. 3) Find a young diamond in the rough guy like Baty or a current prospect like Dezenzo and hope he blossoms. I say bite the bullet and sign Bregman and then use the remaining budget to solidify 1b, LF, and CF.
