I think I would like to see this for a bullpen: Hader Abreu McCullers Whitley Scott King Montero (flip for nothing at end of year for tax reasons) Here's the rotation I would want: Brown Kikuchi Blanco Verlander Arrighetti Garcia Flip Framber for a CF and 1B. With money saved, resign Bregman if not more than 5 or 6 years. White Sox don't need Framber, but get prospects to send them in 3 way deal... If Bregman money crazy, go for Santander and trade Framber for 3B. Something like: Luis Robert Jose Altuve Yordan Alvarez Kyle Tucker Alex Bregman Yainer Diaz Andrew Vaughn Jeremy Pena DH Rotation: Caratini/Diaz/Yordan/Altuve
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5815995/2024/10/03/alex-bregman-astros-offseason-plans/ The Astros have $115,433,333 committed to seven returning major-league players, according to Spotrac. Add in the $19.5 million José Abreu will receive for doing nothing along with the $11.5 million Rafael Montero will make as a Sugar Land Space Cowboy and Houston has $146,433,333 already on its 2025 payroll. According to MLB Trade Rumors’ projections, the Astros could owe $58,225,000 to their 10 arbitration-eligible players. That number is just an estimate, but adding it to the aforementioned nine players making guaranteed money means Houston is carrying a $204,658,333 payroll before beginning its offseason shopping. The first luxury tax threshold in 2025 is $241 million, meaning Houston has around $37 million to operate with if Crane doesn’t want to cross it. None of its 10 arbitration-eligible players are obvious non-tender candidates, either, prompting wonder if Brown could pare payroll via trade. Dangling workhorse starter Framber Valdez and his projected $17.8 million arbitration salary would seem logical if there is a directive to trim payroll. Giving away nearly 200 innings of a sub-3 ERA is dangerous, but the emergence of Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Ronel Blanco, along with the expected return of Luis Garcia, would soften the blow somewhat. Dana Brown could backfill the rotation with cheaper alternatives that the Astros’ pitching department could tweak or tap into some pitching depth at their upper minor leagues, be it with Ryan Gusto, Miguel Ullola or A.J. Blubaugh. Setup man Ryan Pressly has a no-trade clause in his contract, but given his demotion from the closer role in favor of Josh Hader and the pitching depth Houston has accrued, it’s worth wondering if he could morph into a viable candidate to be moved. Pressly’s $14 million club option vested into a player option after his 45th appearance this season. Exploring trades with either Jake Meyers or Chas McCormick — and paving the way for top prospect Jacob Melton — could clear some space, too.
I really don’t see any obvious places to trim significant payroll. Urquidy will save a couple of million when he’s non tendered. If Houston plans on adding an outfielder then McCormick or Meyers becomes expendable, saving a few million. If Houston thinks Salazar is ready to be the backup C then Caratini could be traded, saving $6M. But all those moves combined don’t really move the needle all that much. The quickest fix to the payroll issue is to embrace the fantasy that Lance McCullers will be fully healthy next season, in which case the rotation is set and there’s no need to spend money on a SP. Pressly is a trade candidate but I’m skeptical that he really wants to be traded or at least would be willing to waive his NTC for just any team Houston works a deal with. Banking on McCullers, non-tendering Urquidy, trading McCormick or Meyers, trading Caratini, and trading Pressly would give them plenty of money to fully address the lineup holes.
Still gives me goose bumps........now that was confidence! It sucks they were great with us but no ex Astro really has done anything special with there new team, sure they got paid but they don't "win".............guess it depends on what you want, a ring or cash
I don’t claim to be an insider or anything like that by any means but actually I just got some info from someone who 100% knows the Bregman’s. They sent me this text: “They said they aren’t hopeful. They sold their condo and have been leasing a place till they find out where they will be.” Like I said take it with a grain of salt but I trust this person for sure. If it’s true it seems like any offer the Astros make will be to save face with Altuve and the franchise. Idk we’ll see.
I just don't see Bregs getting an offer he'll be pleased with and I wouldn't offer because his slow starts.
I don't see the market as being as robust for him as he may think. He's the only decent one on the market but teams can still trade for guys. Spotrac has his value at 4 years 120. If that's what it is, he's coming back. Matt Chapman is a comparable player with the same agent. He got 3 years 54 million last year before the Giants committed with an extension. Chapman ultimately got 6 years 150. I suspect that's the goal for Bregman. I think that's in the Astros ballpark. Knowing Boras he wants to take him to market in case there's a desperate team willing to go 8 years on him. I just don't see it after the year he had.
Bregman’s ceiling is $240M/8yrs. His floor is $160M/6yrs. I think he will end up with something close to $180M/7yrs plus incentives.
Bregman alternatives? Ke'Bryan Hayes Isaac Parades Ryan McMahon Yoan Moncada Pros and cons... have to trade for some, some have long term money, etc.
180 in 7 years seems pretty reasonable for him. I would do that. That's like 25 million a year. 25 million won't seem like a lot in year 6 and 7.
I hope the Astros go into the luxury tax with Bregman and Kikuchi this coming year. After this season, Montero and Abreu come off the books and we can dip below and reset. If they really think Brice Matthews is the one, then maybe we let Bregman go. We can also move Bregman to first base. He's kinda short for that position but we know he can play it. There is no way we resign Tucker. He's getting a huge contract that we want no part of.
Cubs have a high prospect... Matt Shaw... They have Parades for 3B and Swanson at SS. He was in AAA last year playing primarily 3B. Hit .298 with .929 OPS in 152 PAs. I could see something like him and Moises Ballesteros (#4 for them - C/1B) for Framber. Fills in holes at 1B and 3B long term hopefully. They don't need Framber but would give them one of the best rotations. They only had 2 starters go 150 ip so they may want a workhorse who throws innings. If they love Shaw so much they may flip Parades instead.... Just saying there could be a match there...
I probably wouldn’t want to give Bregman that deal. He really hasn’t been that good. Factor in injury history including hamstring, back, and elbow issues, and his age, and it’s just too risky. I would probably top out at something like $110M/4yrs with opt outs. I would be fine with $150M/6yrs with no opt outs.
Bregman works out in Arizona in the off-season, I think he will go there in 2025 for short-term like most Boras contracts. I think if any of the high market teams (Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners) have an interest in him, he would go there to max his off-field activities. Tuve made a baseball decision, Bregman is going to make a investment, or max money decision. In other news, Pitching Coach Brent Strom was released by the Diamondbacks. Maybe he could be an advisor to the Astros.
Bregman makes other teammates better because of the way he grinds EVERY DAY. His work ethic sets the tone. And he's a two-time champion who helps drive a championship culture. I'd try to keep him, even if it means overpaying deep into the contract. As a recognized leader in the field of business and economics, I can tell you that inflation will continue to rage over the next 10 years, because government spending will be out of control. $30 million/year won't seem so bad in 2030 as the dollar continues to lose value due to inflation.
