[Official] Astros Off Season Thread

Brewers also did it with Burnes. Ended up getting their starting 3B (3 WAR season this year) out of the deal and the 34th overall pick. The reliever they got sucked but that’s still a win IMO given Ortiz is under club control making the minimum.

In a perfect world, we would do your option 1 and just spend to fix the holes like the Dodgers do but the likelihood of that happening isn’t high. There’s zero chance they are doing option 2 and entering a full rebuild.

I’m worried they are going to go the option 3 route and hope for the best.

 

If we use my idea and trade Framber, we can use the prospects we receive in that deal (or soften the blow of trading our own) to get Robert.

 

Pretty generic answer.

 

Sounds good, but it's definitely a lie -- due to the mere fact there's always something off the table, many things.

And I'm not blaming Crane because this holds true for every team.

Hader only blew 3 games !?!!

Must be using "dog year" math.

And nobody should expect closers to be perfect, but Hader definitely blew more than 3 games.

 

Like Jerry Jones said for this season's Cowboys, Dana is saying we're "all in".

 

I expect Dana to keep this org at the top. I trust that Luhnow would've threaded the needle and if Dana can't thread this needle then Crane needs to find another GM. I expect nothing more than excellence to build on the dynasty Luhnow built for Crane.

Is this a high standard? You better believe it is.

 

Does anyone think there was an energy missing from the team? Maybe something Springer, Correa, Brantley, etc. brought. Beyond the obvious holes in the lineup and injuries to the rotation, it felt like there was maybe an aura or swagger missing all season. I don't know how you fix that other than loading up with big free agents to bring that "inevitable" feeling back, but that seems inorganic and could easily blow up in your face quickly.

 

I definitely worry about how losing Bregman will impact the culture. I still believe Altuve sets the tone and Alvarez is also a leader. But just as Springer and Correa were heavy contributors to the winning culture, I think Bregman carried even more weight than they did. But Houston can mitigate that by bringing in the right veterans.

it’s another reason why the Jose Abreu deal was so so bad. Not only did his lack of production destroy the season, he was also supposed to have a positive cultural impact thru 2025, which is obviously not going to happen.

 

I'd say we've lacked leadership for sure. I believe that starts with the skipper and I've just not come around to Espada at all. Seems like he's in over his head and maybe it was just his first year but it's not like he hasn't seen the inner workings of a team before. We need Hinch 2.0 and I have no idea who that is.

 

Doesn't Pressly have a buy out clause? There is no way he is an Astro in 2025

 

They had gone deep into the playoffs for 7 straight years...... they then started out terrible and dug a massive hole, 10 games out - and spent the rest of the season trying to get out of it --- then there were all of the injuries as well.

I think those are the reasons that they seemed to be missing energy; it wasn't because they lacked a leader. Had they been healthy and won 95 games - the energy level would naturally be higher.... but it wasn't ever going to be what it would be for a team like the Padres that have been trying to break through for 5 years.

I do think that they need to add a couple of guys desperate to win that play hard - and they need better health ---- but a lot the lack of energy, I believe is circumstantial.

 

Top 5 free agent bat targets in terms of overall fit/expected value:
1. Christian Walker
2. Michael Conforto
3. Jurickson Profar
4. Anthony Santander
5. Alex Bregman
HM: Joc Pederson, JD Martinez, Mark Canha, Paul Goldschmidt, Jorge Polanco, Jose Iglesias, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, Gio Urshela, Teoscar Hernandez, Jesse Winker, Tyler O’Neill, Ben Gamel, Jason Heyward, Tommy Pham

Top position player trade targets:
1. Luis Robert
2. Brandon Lowe
3. Willson Contreras
4. Yandy Diaz
5. Jake Burger

Top 5 SP Free agent targets:
1. Yusei Kikuchi
2. Nick Pivetta
3. Justin Verlander
4. Andrew Heaney
5. Sean Manaea
HM: Shane Bieber, Matthew Boyd, Lance Lynn, Michael Lorenzen, Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer, Jose Quintana

 

Very good list.

Walker fills the need positionally, defensively and offensively.

Conforto had a mediocre year - but look at the numbers outside San Francisco.

I think Santander is likely outside the Astros pay bracket - but maybe not. Profar has been up and down in his career, the feeling is he will be in SD again.

I think that Brandon Lowe would fit what they want to do offensively well.

I did have someone tell me today that the Astros are going to look at running more and better - he said to keep an eye on Victor Robles.... who can play CF.

 

Were the Astros lacking energy in '22 and '23 when they had little-to-none of those players?

Astros just had too many injuries this season. They also weren't particularly clutch and had too many bad breaks luck-wise. Hader's bed wetting and Jabreu's full blown suckage didn't help either.

Astros will add pieces and return strong next year, although Altuve's defense and Tucker's wack postseason prowess are both worrisome.

 

Robles signed a 2 year extension for less than $5m per year with Seattle. I doubt they'd deal him, and definitely doubt they'd deal him to the Stros.

 

Supposedly they are considering moving him.

I hadn't even thought of him in years - he was at one point the #2 prospect in baseball.

 

Pitching:
On the mound is my greatest source of hope and optimism about how the Astros are set to be pretty good and pretty inexpensive for a long time. Lots of good news here.

Player Contract Status FA year (age)

Starters

Hunter Brown 4 years for 30M 2028 (29) Obviously the salary is projection. An ace for 1M, 5M, 10M & 15M is what I'm projecting in arb. if that's wrong its by 5M total.

Arrighetti 5 years for 30M 2029 (29) Boy we ****ed this one up. He got service time for a year by like 5 days I believe. That 5 days is the difference between saying goodbye after 2029 or after 2030. That hurts bad. I don't think they expected him to be this good.

Blanco 5 for 20M 2029 (35). No extension. No extra money. No worries about anything. This late bloomer looks like a quality MOR guy for minimum wage for 5 more years, that's super valuable.

Javier 3 for 36M 2027 (30). Figure 2025 is a waste. If he gives you enough to pitch out of the bullpen that's a real weapon down the stretch but don't count on that. No reason not to start in 2026

LMJ 2 for 34 2026 (32) Has he thrown his last big league pitch? Plan as if he has. I hope the contract is insured. Anything you get from him is Gravy

Luis Garcia 2 for 10 2026 (29) Can't imagine he's not back to the same guy he was before injury by 26 with 2 full years. It's a straightforward surgery. 12-18 months. He was on the 18 month side- that sucks. Spring training will be 21 months out. No reason not to expect him to be a quality MOR guy for 2 more years at short money.

Framber- 1 for 20M 2025 (31)- Ace level for 20M is really valuable and good.

Urquidy- arb 3 2025 (30) You DFA him before you pay him 4 or 5M on the hopes that you get him back to pitch next August. I'd offer him a 2 for 6M contract if he was open to that- if not I'd DFA and tell him best of luck on the open market- thanks for 2 WS wins bro.

Starters- You can count on (I believe) 2 aces making a combined 20M, 3 MOR guys making 7M combined, and then injury wildcards in France, Javier, LMJ making a combined 30M. If that 30M injury could be hand waived away you would be in such good shape. If we get 200 competent innings out of those 3 guys then that's fine.

Bullpen:

Hader 4 years- 76M 2028 (34). Yesh- not a great first year in a lot of ways. You get him to be a boss man in the playoffs and that didn't happen. Better luck next year.

Presley 1 year- 15M 2025 (36) He's got 10/5 rights so you can't trade him unless he agrees. Personally, I'd make his life miserable enough that he'd agree.

Abreu- 2 years- 12M 2026 (29) He made 1.75. I'm projecting something like 4 and 8 in arbitration. Maybe it's less, maybe it's a little more- I'm within 2M total though I would almost guarantee. I'd offer him a 5 year, 40M extension to buy out the last two years of arb and then that would be worth something like 3/ 28M on the back end. He might say no- in which case you say good luck. He might say yes in which case you have the 8th and 9th innings set for 4 years and 27M total from a LT perspective. That's not terrible in todays market.

That's it for guys with money owed or that you guarantee are here (absent injury) through their arb years- the rest of the guys I'm just going to list when their service time is up:

Bryan King: 2029 (32)

Kaleb Ort: 2028 (36)

Taylor Scott: 2028 (36)

Penn Murfree: 2028 (34)

Seth Martinez: 2028 (33)

Forest Whitley: 2030 (32)

Shawn Dubin: 2028 (33)

Lost from this years team: JV, Kikuchi, Graveman, Turd Ferguson,

Waiting in the wings/Roster fodder (2025 edition): Blubaugh, Gusto, Gordon, Suero, Coleman, Ortega, Souza, Kouba (injury stuff on the last 3 guys).

Keep an eye on (long term) Ullola, Brito, Fleury, Pecko, too many others to mention- the astros are witches here.

Prognosis: I'd do everything I could to get Pressley out the door. I'd sign Kichuchi to something like 3/60M. That would be a bargain if he was the guy he was for the last 10 starts with the Astros. If he's not that guy anymore it's an overpay for a MOR starter which he's always been. If he gets hurt that's bad luck- what are you going to do.

Proposed Lineup:

Rotation: Framber, Brown, Kicuchi (TOR guys) MOR- Arrighetti, Blanco, Absolutely should be back: Garcia, Might be back: LMJ, Javier, France. That's 6 guys you can count on, 3 health guys and at least 2 starters waiting in the wings I'm very bullish on to be decent at least. 45M from the guys through absolutely should be back- plus 30M in health concerns.

Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, Scott, Whitley, Murfree, pick 2 more from guys waiting in the wings etc.

Summary: Hunter Brown establishing himself as a TOR guy, Arrighetti an Blanco you have to be feeling really good about, breakout in the minors from Blubaugh, Ullola being a comer- man- the Astros have it really good here. We've been killed by injuries 2 years in a row. If we get some of those guys back and right so that they are not just a black hole on the books while contributing nothing this goes from very very good part of the team to fantastic. I couldn't be more excited about having 2 aces for not much money next year and 3 or 4 guys that make nothing that will be solid MOR guys with some ace potential. Keep the good thing going with Kichuchi and you have 3 ace types and 3 or 4 MOR types and it's not costing you all that much.

If I had my way on the signing of kichuchi and getting rid of Presley (and urquidy) you are looking at something like $112M. That's pretty fantastic.

This org has proven it can develop guys from out of nowhere. There was concern that with a new regime and new development staff maybe the train wouldn't roll on. It clearly has. If things go reasonably this is a top 5-10 staff. If things break right for once this is the best collection of 1-13 guys in baseball with good quality depth to boot. That's an enviable position and why I'm bullish on the Astros long term.

 

That organization is such a piece of **** and has their heads so far up their asses that I would have a hard time even trying to attempt to deal with them and have them waste my time. I would call them up- give them a deadline of 24 hours and tell them to send me Robert for melton, Blubaugh and Ullola and they need to thank me for developing pitchers for them and being gracious enough to have the opportunity to get my prospects I’ve developed or **** off and lose my number forever. Then I would forget that there are actually 2 baseball teams in Chicago and pay them absolutely zero mind.
Then I’d call Anaheim and ask them if their fridge is running and call Colorado and ask them if they have price Albert in a can and be through with talking to the 3 dumbest orgs in the game.

 

Depending on what they would ask for him, I'd be all over bringing him in. At worst he's Jake Meyers with a slightly better bat and much better base runner, at best he's a top of the order bat with speed and defense.